Both parties look to make gains in Senate

Did your district's November race make it on our list of elections to watch? More »

Senate seats in play

Check to see which state Senate seats could be changing hands this November. More »

Early voting starts Oct. 23!

Find your closest early voting site. More »

What's the big deal with Question K?

Question K, which passed with 77% of the votes, makes it easier for people to participate in our city's future by moving city elections to the same year as Presidential elections. More »

 

CAA Moves Hoops Tournament to Baltimore

This was exciting to see:

caahoops

The tournament has been hosted in Richmond, VA since 1990. Not only will this move probably increase the attendance from northern CAA schools, but it will have a positive impact on business in Baltimore, as well as increasing the city’s prestige.

Read the full article by Jack Lambert at the Baltimore Business Journal.

Victories for Progress on Election Day

Thank you!

Because of your hard work and generous donations of time and money, we can spend the next four years moving forward. Keep watching this site, though, because we don’t plan to take a rest before 2014 rolls around. Improving Baltimore has to be a constant process.

Other than President Barack Obama and Senator Ben Cardin’s victories on Tuesday, here are the results from several other important local votes:

 

Maryland’s 2nd Congressional District:

Dutch Ruppersberger (D-inc) – 65.6%

Nancy Jacobs (R) – 31.1%

Leo Wayne Dymowski (L) – 3.2%

Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District:

John Sarbanes (D-inc) – 66.8%

Eric Delano Knowles (R) – 29.6%

Paul W. Drgos, Jr. (L) – 3.4%

Maryland’s 6th Congressional District:

John Delaney (D) – 58.8%

Roscoe Bartlett (R-inc) – 37.9%

Nickolaus Mueller (L) – 3.2%

Maryland’s 7th Congressional District:

Elijah Cummings (D-inc) – 76.5%

Frank Mirabile (R) – 20.8%

Ronald M. Owens-Bey (L) – 2.5%

 

State Question 4 (DREAM Act):

FOR – 58.9%

AGAINST – 41.1%

State Question 6 (Marriage Equality):

FOR – 52.4%

AGAINST – 47.6%

State Question 7 (Expanded Gaming):

FOR – 51.9%

AGAINST – 48.1%

 

Baltimore City Question K (Move city elections to Presidential election year):

FOR – 77.3%

AGAINST – 22.7%

Anne Arundel County Question B (Removal of County Executives):

FOR – 89.8%

AGAINST – 10.2%

 

Source: MD State Board of Elections

Vote YES on Questions 4, 6 and 7!

Election Day is tomorrow! Make sure you vote YES on the three biggest ballot measures that will move Maryland forward, not back.

Because if you live in MD and pay MD taxes, you should pay MD tuition.

Because everyone should be treated equally. That’s a true American value.

Because people are going to gamble regardless. Would you rather that money go to Maryland schools, or West Virginia?

Vote FOR K on Election Day

Sure, it sounds cheesy: “Vote for K on Election Day!”

But Question K is no joke. Neither was the turnout for the 2011 mayoral election: only 23% of registered voters showed up at the polls.

Question K is a solution: rather than have city elections in an odd year, move them to a Presidential election year. That way, more people who would have come out to vote anyway will vote for Mayor and City Council.

Here is the text of Question K straight from the Board of Elections website:

We urge you to help make democratic process easier for hundreds of thousands of people by voting FOR this simple ballot question. It’s the first step towards our city’s future.

Election Watch: 10/8

 

October means only one month remains until Election Day. It also means the start of debate season: candidates’ last chance to appeal directly to the public. Another key about this month is that generally, a large lead in an October poll won’t be lost. With each passing week, the polls begin to paint a more final picture of the election.

In case you are wondering, the numbers below (ex. 8.5) are the averages of all polls collected for each race. They represent how many points in each state the candidate is predicted to win by, on average.

SENATE:
Democratic Party – 51
Republican Party – 47
Independents – 2 (ME, VT)
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Democratic Party – 196
Republican Party – 239

Changes since the last prediction:

PRESIDENT

  1. Colorado: Toss-up (1.8) to Lean D (2.3)
  2. Hawaii: Guarantee D (32.0) – Previously no data
  3. Iowa: Toss-up (1.0) to Lean D (4.5)
  4. Louisiana: Likely R (-6.0) – Previously no data
  5. Missouri: Likely R (-8.0) to Lean R (-4.6)
  6. Montana: Strong R (-11.0) to Likely R (-8.8)
  7. Nebraska’s 2nd District: Lean R (-2.5) to Toss-up (-1.7)
  8. Nevada: Lean D (4.8) to Likely D (7.4)
  9. Rhode Island: Solid D (24.0) – Previously no data

SENATE

  1. Arizona: Likely R (-5.4) to Lean R (-2.8)
  2. California: Strong D (18.8) to Solid D (20.2)
  3. Florida: Likely D (9.4) to Strong D (11.4)
  4. Maine: Strong I (13.5) to Likely I (9.8)
  5. Minnesota: Strong D (18.4) to Solid D (21.4)
  6. Missouri: Toss-up (1.4) to Lean D (3.6)
  7. New Mexico: Likely D (8.6) to Strong D (11.4)
  8. Pennsylvania: Strong D (13.3) to Likely D (9.2)
  9. Rhode Island: Solid D (26.0) – Previously no data
  10. Texas: Strong R (-15.0) to Solid R (-20.7)
  11. Wisconsin: Lean D (4.7) to Likely D (5.0)
  12. Virginia: Lean D (3.1) to Likely D (5.3)

 

Click to enlarge.

The past cycle of polls show that President Obama’s post-convention surge has continued, with 18 states moving more towards Obama since September 24. Hopes that Nebraska’s 2nd district might send Obama an extra electoral vote as they did in 2008 were revived, as the district moved to a toss-up. We also saw the first polls come in from Hawaii, Louisiana, and Rhode Island.

Presidential strength indicator: (BLACK indicates no data)

Click to enlarge.

There are two big storylines in the Senate. One is from Virginia, where Democrat Tim Kaine is widening his lead in a race that was considered a toss-up until just last month. The second is from the unlikely state of Arizona, a longtime Republican stronghold, but where centrist Democrat Richard Carmona is closing the gap between himself and his Republican opponent for the open seat, Jeff Flake.

It also appears that the leads for Democrat Bob Casey (PA) and Independent Angus King (ME) are dwindling, but still hold.

Following is a map we created to show how the Senate is projected to change. DARK RED = R gain, LIGHT RED = R hold, DARK BLUE = D gain, LIGHT BLUE = D hold, DARK GREEN = I gain, LIGHT GREEN = I hold, PURPLE = Toss-up.

Click to enlarge.

Summary of results:

“Current” – The current makeup of the U.S. Senate. “2012” indicates the makeup of the Senate after the 2012 elections, but only using poll results that are outside our margin of error of 2.0. “Toss-up” indicates the makeup of the Senate after the 2012 elections including all races, including the closest races. For example, a race where the Republican candidate leads by 0.1 would not be counted in the 2012 line, but would be counted in the Toss-up line.

Here is a strength indicator for the Senate:

Click to enlarge.

Here is our current list of House pickups for both parties:

The net gain for Democrats is in the House is D+7; however, that number does not take into account the effects of redistricting on party seat changes:

 

 

Data

 

So now what?

The day after Election Day, where will you be? If progressive candidates lose, will you be comforted knowing you did all you could? Or will you wonder what could have happened if you had done just a little more? Don’t let that be your story. There’s still plenty of time to volunteer or contribute.

Register to vote, and make sure your friends are registered!

 

 

Donate to progressive candidates for Congress. Even small donations like $5 add up.

Volunteer for President Obama’s campaign in your area!

Mitt Romney vs. Mitt Romney

Once again, we are reminded that Mitt Romney will say anything to get elected. He has contradicted his own words so many times, he could have a debate with himself.

 

Thanks to DailyKos for this.

Election Watch: 9/24

With less than 7 weeks to go to Election Day, polls results begin to look more final. If Obama is ahead by this margin at this point in the race, Romney’s chance of winning is slim at best. Romney shot himself in the foot last week with a PR disaster. Another thing we learned this week is that anyone who still claims the Senate is not in play, is out of their mind. The Democrats have a very good chance of holding on to the upper house.

SENATE:
Democratic Party – 51
Republican Party – 47
Independents – 2 (ME, VT)
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Democratic Party – 200
Republican Party – 235

Election Watch: 9/8

The Republican and Democratic National Conventions are a party’s 3-day opportunity to make their case to the American public. With these now wrapped up and in the books, there does not seem to be much movement in the Presidential race.

SENATE:
Democratic Party – 48
Republican Party – 50
Independents – 2 (ME, VT)
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Democratic Party – 201
Republican Party – 234

Who Voted Against Equal Marriage in MD?

The Civil Marriage Protection Act was ratified in February 2012, finally legalizing gay marriage in Maryland after a long political battle. The final vote was 72-67 in favor, which begs the question, which delegates voted against this bill? The Democrats have much more than 72 seats in the House of Delegates.

The information is readily available on the Maryland General Assembly site. We have gone one step further (actually, two steps) and created a colored list by party, as well as a map showing where their districts are.

First, the map. This shows where in the state the votes for and against equality came from.

Click to enlarge.

Finally, the list of votes:

From that list, we see members of both parties crossing the line and voting against the majority of their party, mostly socially-conservative Democrats voting against gay marriage. However we also see two Republicans voting for the Act: Bob Costa and Wade Kach.

 

Election Watch: 8/25

The past week has seen two major political events: the selection of Paul Ryan as Romney’s running mate, and Rep. Todd Akin’s commentary concerning how women’s bodies work.

While the first event has appeared to help Republicans nationwide, the second seems to be causing the GOP’s efforts in Missouri to self-destruct. In the only two rolling polls taken since the controversy, Akin himself dropped from a seven-point lead to a ten-point deficit, and a poll was even released showing Obama defeating Romney in the state by one point. This is the only poll so far to show Obama with a lead in Missouri, so we will have to wait for more data to see whether there will be a trickle-up effect in the state.

SENATE:
Democratic Party – 48
Republican Party – 50
Independents – 2 (ME, VT)
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Democratic Party – 204
Republican Party – 231