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Election Projection 2014: District 42

Senate District 42

Incumbent: Jim Brochin (D)
Filed Challengers: Tim Robinson (R)
Projection: Lean R+1

Past Results:
2010: Jim Brochin (D) 58.4%, Kevin Carney (R) 41.5%
2006: Jim Brochin (D) 56.3%, Douglas B. Riley (R) 43.7%

Past results don’t mean as much when a district is as fully reconfigured as Sen. Brochin’s was. Instead of being a compact district just north of Baltimore, it now stretches from Towson to the Pennsylvania border. The district becomes much more conservative, and Brochin was, unsurprisingly, less than pleased with the map. In fact, it’s possible the district was drawn this way specifically to make it harder for Brochin to win re-election in 2014. According to an article in the Washington Post, Brochin drew Governor O’Malley’s ire in 2006 when he voted with then-Governor Ehrlich’s allies to block a state takeover of 11 schools in Baltimore City, of which O’Malley was the mayor. O’Malley backed Connie DeJuliis over Brochin in the Democratic primary, but Brochin won with nearly 70% of the vote, despite being outraised.

Sen. Jim Brochin (D)

Sen. Jim Brochin (D)

However, the new district’s demographics make it more likely to elect a Republican, and anesthesiologist Tim Robinson is the only remaining Republican in the race. While the district looks like a likely GOP pickup on paper, Brochin’s willingness to defy O’Malley and the Democratic establishment win him major points as an independent in this district. Robinson will also need to put up stronger fundraising numbers if he hopes to help the Republicans capture this seat. All in all, this may be the most competitive Senate race in the state, and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Jim Brochin (D-inc) raised $150,010, cash on hand $149,295
  2. Tim Robinson (R) raised $63,108, cash on hand $39,461

House District 42A – 1 member

Incumbent: Steve Lafferty (D)
Filed Challengers: Mike McAllister (R)
Projection: Likely D Hold

42a

District 42A is a new single-member district in Towson. Del. Steve Lafferty has always enjoyed bipartisan support, having served as the old District 42’s sole Democratic representative (alongside two Republicans). He should have an easy path to re-election, facing no primary opposition and little threat from Republicans in this strongly Democratic district.

Del. Steve Lafferty (D)

Del. Steve Lafferty (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Stephen Lafferty (D-inc) raised $53,420, cash on hand $67,032
  2. Michael McAllister (R) raised $2,524, cash on hand -$166

 

House District 42B – 2 members

Incumbents: Susan Aumann (R), William Frank (R) – Frank is not running for re-election
Filed Challengers: Robert Leonard (D), Craig J. Little (D), Chris West (R)
Projection: Likely R Hold

42b

This new district stretches from Lutherville/Timonium in the south to the Mason-Dixon line in the northwest corner of the county. It is expected to send two Republicans to the House. Incumbent Del. Susan Aumann was a shoo-in to be one of them, and Del. Joseph Boteler, who has been drawn in from District 8, was expected to be the other. However, Boteler put up awful fundraising numbers, and was defeated in the Republican primary by Chris West.

Del. Susan Aumann (R)

Democrats are absolutely contesting these seats. Teacher and attorney Robert Leonard has raised the most money out of any candidate since the primary, including Del. Aumann. He will be joined on the Democratic ticket by attorney Craig Little from Lutherville. While it would be a pleasant surprise for Democrats to make inroads in central Baltimore County, it would certainly be unexpected.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Chris West (R) raised $139,920, cash on hand $8,627
  2. Susan Aumann (R-inc) raised $58,715, cash on hand $47,370
  3. Robert Leonard (D) raised $24,085, cash on hand $16,404
  4. Craig Little (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

Election Projection 2014: District 38

Senate District 38

Incumbent: Jim Mathias (D)
Filed Challengers: Del. Mike McDermott (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold (Mathias)

Past Results:
2010: Jim Mathias (D) 50.7%, Michael James (R) 49.3%
2006: J. Lowell Stoltzfus (R) unopposed

Mathias

Sen. Jim Mathias (D)

Jim Mathias surprised Republicans by taking this Lower Shore district in 2010. Now, Delegate Mike McDermott will try to unseat him, as redistricting put both him and Delegate Charles Otto of 38A into the same district. This race will come down to who can bring their message out to the most people. As Somerset County trends Democratic, Worcester County (home of both candidates) is trending more Republican. However, Sen. Mathias has a huge cash advantage and remains popular in his native county.

Del. Mike McDermott (R) hopes to win a Senate seat

Del. Mike McDermott (R) hopes to win a Senate seat

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Jim Mathias (D-inc) raised $262,180, cash on hand $288,468
  2. Mike McDermott (R) raised $37,729, cash on hand $27,153

 

House District 38A – 1 member

Incumbent: Charles James Otto (R)
Filed Challengers: Percy J. Purnell, Jr. (D)
Projection: Toss-up

Past Results:
2010: Charles Otto (R) 62.1%, Michael McCready (D) 37.7%
2006: D. Page Elmore (R) 63.3%, Patrick M. Armstrong (D) 36.6%

38a

The new 38A has dropped the heavily conservative part of southern Wicomico County in favor of western Worcester County, along with a strip of land following Worcester Highway north to Berlin. Like the Senate race, the candidate who gets their message out most effectively will win this seat. Democrats landed a top recruit in Crisfield mayor Percy Purnell; whether he can unseat freshman Delegate Otto remains to be seen.

Del. Charles Otto (R)

Del. Charles Otto (R)

Neither candidate has raised much money this cycle, and Purnell has only recently launched a website.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Percy J. Purnell (D) raised $9,850, cash on hand $4,968
  2. Charles James Otto (R-inc) raised $3,950, cash on hand $9,767

 

House District 38B – 1 member

Incumbent: Norm Conway (D)
Filed Challengers: Carl Anderton (R)
Projection: Likely D Hold

38b

The old two-member 38B is now divided in to two separate districts. The new 38B contains the cities of Salisbury and Delmar. Popular incumbent Del. Norm Conway should win re-election now that he doesn’t have to worry about winning Worcester County.

Del. Norm Conway (D)

Del. Norm Conway (D)

 

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Norm Conway (D-inc) raised $63,574, cash on hand $72,628
  2. Carl Anderton (R) raised $17,741, cash on hand $14,052

House District 38C – 1 member

Incumbent: none – new district
Filed Challengers: Judy Davis (D), Mary Beth Carozza (R)
Projection: Likely R Hold

38c

This new district includes rural eastern Wicomico County and northern Worcester County, with the communities of Ocean Pines and Ocean City. This district is expected to vote strongly Republican, but with a brand new seat, anything can happen.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Mary Beth Carozza (R) raised $102,213, cash on hand $41,800
  2. Judy Davis (D) raised $9,154, cash on hand $780

Election Projection 2014: District 35

Senate District 35

Incumbent: Barry Glassman (R) – will run for Harford County Executive
Filed Challengers: Bridget Kelly (D), Wayne Norman (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold (Norman)

Past Results:
2010: Barry Glassman (R) unopposed
2006: J. Robert Hooper (R) 68.0%, Stan Kollar (D) 31.9%

35b

The 35th District loses Bel Air in redistricting and picks up eastern Cecil County. This is a strongly Republican district, and Delegate Wayne Norman looks to be the front-runner.

Del. Wayne Norman (R) is the early favorite for Senator

Del. Wayne Norman (R) is the early favorite for Senator

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Wayne Norman (R) raised $49,872, cash on hand $24,600
  2. Bridget Kelly (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

House District 35A – 1 member

Incumbent: David Rudolph (D)
Filed Challengers: Kevin Hornberger (R)
Projection: Toss-up

Past Results:
2010: David Rudolph (D) 48.7%, Theodore A. Patterson (R) 46.0%, Michael Dawson (C) 5.3%
2006: David Rudolph (D) 55.0%, Ewing McDowell (R) 44.9%

35a

The new 35A is essentially the old 34B, located in Cecil county. In 2010, Del. Rudolph survived a scare as the combined votes of the Republican and Constitution Party candidates exceeded his own. This district has been trending to the right for a while now, and Rudolph has been able to survive by branding himself a conservative Democrat in tune with the needs of the community. It is unclear if 2010 was a low point for Rudolph because of the national Republican wave, or if it is part of the trend in Cecil County. While the district lines were undoubtedly adjusted to support Rudolph as much as possible, he may not survive another election.

The old District 34B contained much more of western Cecil county than the new 35A. Del. Rudolph took 49% of the vote in this district.

The old District 34B contained much more of western Cecil County than the new 35A. Del. Rudolph took 49% of the vote in this district.

Del. David D. Rudolph (D)

Del. David D. Rudolph (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. David Rudolph (D-inc) raised $32,775, cash on hand $58,924
  2. Kevin Hornberger (R) raised $2,850, cash on hand $436

House District 35B – 2 members

Incumbents: Wayne Norman (R), Donna Stifler (R) – Norman is running for Senate, Stifler is retiring due to health concerns
Filed Challengers: Jeffrey Elliott (D), Daniel Lamey (D), Andrew Cassilly (R), Teresa Reilly (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Donna Stifler (R) 38.0%, Wayne Norman (R) 37.6%, John W. Jones (D) 13.4%, Joseph J. Gutierrez (D) 10.8%
2006: Barry Glassman (R) 40.1%, Donna Stifler (R) 34.8%, Craig DeRan (D) 25.0%

35b

This district is the old 35A, based in rural Harford and Cecil counties. Republicans Andrew Cassilly and Teresa Reilly will win easily in November, bringing two fresh faces to Annapolis.

Election Projection 2014: District 34

Senate District 34

Incumbent: Nancy Jacobs (R) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Mary-Dulany James (D), Bob Cassilly (R)
Projection: Lean D+1

Past Results:
2010: Nancy Jacobs (R) 55.9%, Art Helton (D) 43.9%
2006: Nancy Jacobs (R) 57.3%, William B. Kilby (D) 42.7%

34a

District 34 in Harford County consists of a two-member district (34A) including Aberdeen, Edgewood, and Havre de Grace, and a single-member district (34B) in Bel Air. Generally, the area south and east of Interstate 95 votes Democratic while the rest of the county votes Republican. Democratic Delegate Mary-Dulany James has filed for the seat, defeating former state senator and perennial candidate Art Helton in the primary. With incumbent Sen. Nancy Jacobs retiring, the Republican field is clear for former county councilman Bob Cassilly.

This race will come down to Democratic performance in 34A. If they put up enough numbers there to outweigh heavily-Republican Bel Air, this will be a Democratic pickup. If not, the seat will remain in Republican hands.

Mary-Dulany James is well known in Harford County, having represented 34A since 1999. Her popularity will likely carry her and the Democrats to a pickup here.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Mary-Dulany James (D) raised $268,356, cash on hand $16,788
  2. Bob Cassilly (R) raised $32,426, cash on hand $18,326

House District 34A – 2 members

Incumbents: Mary-Dulany James (D), Glen Glass (R) – James is running for State Senate
Filed Challengers:Mary Ann Lisanti (D), Marla Posey-Moss (D), Mike Blizzard (R)
Projection: Lean D+1

Past Results:
2010: Mary-Dulany James (D) 29.2%, Glen Glass (R) 25.3%, Patrick McGrady (R) 22.9%, Marla Posey-Moss (D) 22.5%
2006: Mary-Dulany James (D) 31.7%, B. Daniel Riley (D) 27.3%, Glen Glass (R) 21.0%, Sheryl Davis Kohl (R) 19.9%

Del. Glen Glass (R) is running for re-election

Del. Glen Glass (R) is running for re-election

This district ended up with a rare party split in 2010, sending one Democrat (Mary-Dulany James) and one Republican (Glen Glass) to Annapolis. With James running for Senate, there will be one open seat. Democrats hope to sweep this blue district, and 2010 candidate Marla Posey-Moss will join county councilwoman Mary Ann Lisanti in an effort to do just that. Republicans hope to at least hang on to the seat held by Glass, and possibly pick up the other one. Glass will be joined on the Republican ticket by Mike Blizzard.

The most likely scenario is that a strong Democratic ticket will be enough to drop Glass to third place and secure both these seats. A weaker ticket might allow Glass to take second place again. While Democratic candidate Marla Posey-Moss has posted sluggish fundraising numbers, Glass’s fundraising has not been any better.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Mary Ann Lisanti (D) raised $28,561, cash on hand $2,404
  2. Glen Glass (R-inc) raised $6,875, cash on hand $2,229
  3. Mike Blizzard (R) raised $5,357, cash on hand -$450
  4. Marla Posey-Moss (D) raised $4,475, cash on hand $1,763

House District 34B – 1 member

Incumbent: Susan McComas (R)
Filed Challengers: Cassandra R. Beverley (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Susan McComas (R) 72.3%, John Janowich (D) 27.6%
2006: Susan McComas (R) 62.5%, David Carey (D) 37.4%

This district was formerly numbered 35B, but that’s the only thing changing here this year. Republican incumbent Del. Susan McComas should win easily in this conservative Bel Air district, even while being outraised by Democrat Cassandra Beverley.

Del Susan McComas (R)

Del Susan McComas (R)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Cassandra Beverley (D) raised $15,745, cash on hand $3,853
  2. Susan McComas (R-inc) raised $11,194, cash on hand $37,405

Senate Watch: 9/24

Let’s switch gears a moment and look at the national Senate races. While 2014 looks to be a decent year for Democrats in Maryland, it will likely be a dismal year for the national party.

 

SENATE:
Democratic Party – 48 (-5)
Republican Party – 49 (+4)
Independents – 3 (+1)

 

Our predictions are made by compiling the latest national polls, including no more than two polls conducted for each party or candidate, and discarding outliers or result from pollsters with a record of inaccuracy. The average difference of the polls will lead to a positive (Democratic) or negative (Republican) result. A result within 2 points of zero indicates a Toss-up, within 5 points is Lean, within 10 points is Likely, and greater than or equal to 10 points is Safe. The result represents the average lead a candidate has in the polls.

INITIAL RATINGS

  1. Alaska: Toss-up (0.3)
  2. Arkansas: Toss-up (-1.2)
  3. Colorado: Toss-up (1.8)
  4. Delaware: Safe D (13.0)
  5. Georgia: Lean R (-2.3)
  6. Hawaii: Safe D (35.0)
  7. Idaho: Safe R (-34.0)
  8. Illinois: Toss-up (-1.9)
  9. Iowa: Toss-up (1.4)
  10. Kansas: Lean I (4.9)
  11. Kentucky: Likely R (-5.1)
  12. Louisiana: Toss-up (-1.0)
  13. Maine: Safe R (-28.0)
  14. Massachusetts: Safe D (22.0)
  15. Michigan: Likely D (5.5)
  16. Minnesota: Likely D (9.0)
  17. Mississippi: Safe R (-15.0)
  18. Montana: Safe R (-18.0)
  19. Nebraska: Safe R (-26.0)
  20. New Hampshire: Likely D (6.2)
  21. New Jersey: Safe D (15.0)
  22. New Mexico: Safe D (18.0)
  23. North Carolina: Toss-up (-0.6)
  24. Oklahoma-A: Safe R (-32.0)
  25. Oklahoma-B: Safe R (-31.5)
  26. Oregon: Safe D (11.0)
  27. Rhode Island: Safe D (20.0)
  28. South Carolina-A: Safe R (-13.0)
  29. South Carolina-B: Safe R (-21.0)
  30. South Dakota: Safe R (-10.0)
  31. Tennessee: Safe R (-15.0)
  32. Texas: Safe R (-21.0)
  33. Virginia: Safe D (15.3)
  34. West Virginia: Safe R (-19.0)
  35. Wyoming: Safe R (-40.5)

Here is the data on a map. DARK RED = R gain, LIGHT RED = R hold, DARK BLUE = D gain, LIGHT BLUE = D hold, DARK GREEN = I gain, LIGHT GREEN = I hold, PURPLE = Toss-up.

Click to enlarge.

The most surprising race this year is the Senate race in Kansas, where Republican Sen. Pat Roberts is facing a challenge by independent Greg Orman. The Democrat in the race dropped out, which greatly helps Orman’s chances of winning. Orman has stated that he will caucus with whichever party has the majority, which is likely to be the Republican Party. He may be joined by fellow independent Sen. Angus King from Maine, who has said he will switch caucuses if the Republicans retake the Senate.

The GOP appears to have locked down three gains this year in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Another seven states are in play. As Republicans only need a net gain of six seats to win control of the chamber, they are looking to gain only three seats from Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, and North Carolina. While Illinois is listed as a toss-up, a Republican gain here seems unlikely at this point.

Final 2014 Predictions

Election Day is just a week away, and early voting is already underway. In the final stretch of this exciting election cycle, most seats have been more or less locked down by one candidate. Some, however, remain competitive, and we have summarized them here.

State Senate

District 3 (City of Frederick, southern Frederick county)
Incumbent: Ron Young (D)
Challenger: Corey Stottlemyer (R)
Projection: D Hold

Sen. Ron Young is a former mayor of Frederick and enjoys high name recognition in a district he won in 2010. His Republican opponent has not been able to raise much money, so a swing here is unlikely. If Stottlemyer can’t kick his campaign into high gear, this race won’t be competitive at all.

District 9 (Howard County: Ellicott City, Lisbon; Carroll County: Sykesville, Eldersburg)
Incumbent: Allan Kittleman (R) – retiring
Challengers: Gail Bates (R), Ryan Frederic (D)
Projection: R Hold

This district wasn’t supposed to be competitive, but redistricting and Howard County’s trend towards Democrats opened this race up to a well-funded challenger. Ryan Frederic has raised over $140,000 so far, outpacing Republican Gail Bates by more than a 4-to-1 margin. Bates is currently serving her third term in the House of Delegates, so voters know her already and what she brings to the table. Between that and the historic Republican lean of this district, Bates is still the favorite to win, but just barely.

District 29 (St. Mary’s County, Calvert County: Lusby)
Incumbent: Roy Dyson (D)
Challenger: Steve Waugh (R)
Projection: R Gain

While ancestrally Democratic, this district is following the trend in southern Maryland of turning red. Republican candidate Steve Waugh narrowly lost to Sen. Dyson in 2010 and is seeking a rematch. Waugh is well-funded and has the support needed to be competitive if not to knock Dyson out. Many of the areas he performed poorly in 2010 are in the conservative northern St. Mary’s County around Mechanicsburg. This is the most likely Republican pickup this year, but it’s too early to count Dyson out. He leads Waugh in fundraising and still maintains his base of support.

District 34 (Harford County: Aberdeen, Bel Air, Havre de Grace)
Incumbent: Nancy Jacobs (R) – retiring
Challengers: Mary-Dulany James (D), Bob Cassilly (R)
Projection: D Gain

Democrats scored a great recruit in this blue-trending district with Delegate Mary-Dulany James, who brings excellent name recognition and a moderate voting record to the table. Her opponent, Bob Cassilly, is a former county councilman and Army veteran who will perform well in Bel Air but is likely to trail James south of I-95. James has a slight edge heading into September, due chiefly to her political experience and her fundraising advantage.

District 42 (Baltimore County: Towson, Lutherville, Sparks)
Incumbent: Jim Brochin (D)
Challenger: Tim Robinson (R)
Projection: R Gain

Sen. Brochin’s district was redrawn from a compact district around Towson to a long strip extending from Baltimore to the Pennsylvania border, picking up miles of Republican territory in the process. This should be an easy Republican pickup, but so far their candidate, Tim Robinson, has put up unimpressive fundraising numbers. Brochin is also known as an independent-minded legislator, and it’s rumored that this could have something to do with his district changing shape. Gov. O’Malley even backed his opponent in the Democratic primary. So far, this is still a weak Republican pickup, but Brochin could very well pull this out against a weak candidate.

 

House of Delegates

District 1B (Allegany County: Cumberland, Frostburg)
Incumbent: Kevin Kelly (D)
Challenger: Jason Buckel (R)
Projection: D Hold

Democrat Kevin Kelly has held on to this seat by reflecting the conservative attitudes of Western Maryland. Sometimes, voters choose the opposition party even if they don’t dislike the incumbent. That may happen here this year, although Del. Kelly has stayed ahead in his fundraising efforts.

District 6 (Baltimore County: Dundalk, Essex)
Incumbents: Mike Weir (D), John Olszewski, Jr. (D), Sonny Minnick (D) – Olszewski is running for State Senate, Minnick is retiring
Challengers: Robin Grammer (R), Bob Long (R), Ric Metzgar (R), Jake Mohorovic (D), Nicholas D’Adamo, Jr. (D)
Projection: Weir (D) Hold, Toss-up for the other 2 seats

This district has become older and more conservative in recent years, and has elected socially conservative Democrats to the House. While at least one of the Democratic candidates appears so be a social conservative (Jake Mohorovic was endorsed by the conservative group Protect Marriage Maryland), the Republicans are running a full slate of candidates with strong campaigns. Democrat Mike Weir is very likely to be re-elected, but he could just as easily be joined by two Democrats as he is by two Republicans.

District 8 (Baltimore County: Overlea, Parkville, Perry Hall)
Incumbents: Eric Bromwell (D), John Cluster (R), Joe Boteler (R) – Boteler is now in District 42B
Challengers: Bill Paulshock (D), Renee Smith (D), Christian Miele (R), Norma Secoura (R)
Projection: Bromwell (D) Hold, Cluster (R) Hold, Paulshock (D) Gain

This historically white Catholic district has changed a lot in recent years, but one constant is voters’ personal loyalty to candidates over political parties. Voters have been sending a mixed-party delegation to Annapolis every election since 1990, and have been extremely supportive of John Cluster and Eric Bromwell for over a decade. Bill Paulshock is a popular community figure who owns a local seafood restaurant, and is likely to pick up the vacant seat left by Joe Boteler. Democrats would like to sweep this district with Renee Smith, but Cluster is more likely to retain the third seat.

District 9B (Howard County: Columbia, Ellicott City)
Incumbent: Susan Krebs (R) – Krebs is now in District 5
Challengers: Bob Flanagan (R), Tom Coale (D)
Projection: D Gain

District 9B is in a completely different place than before redistricting. Formerly in south Carroll County, this district is now in central Howard County, including Ellicott City and parts of Columbia and Elkridge. The precincts that make up the new district gave 56% of the vote to Senator Mikulski in 2010, so this should be an easy Democratic pickup.

District 27C (Calvert County: North Beach, Prince Frederick)
Incumbent: Mark Fisher (R)
Challengers: Sue Kullen (D)
Projection: D Gain

While Calvert County isn’t the Democratic haven it used to be, former Delegate Sue Kullen has been gaining ground in her rematch against Del. Mark Fisher, who defeated her in 2010. We have her returning to the House in a newly-drawn district more amenable to Democrats than her previous seat.

District 29A (St. Mary’s County: Leonardtown, Mechanicsburg)
Incumbent: John Wood (D) – retiring
Challengers: Matt Morgan (R), Daniel Slade (D)
Projection: R Gain

Northern St. Mary’s County has been trending conservative for a while, and Del. John Wood only barely clung to his seat at the last election. With his retirement, Republicans are all but certain to win this district.

District 30A (Anne Arundel County: Annapolis)
Incumbents: Michael Busch (D), Herb McMillan (R)
Challengers: Chuck Ferrar (D), Genevieve Lindner (R)
Projection: D Gain

This district elected two Republicans and a Democrat while it was stretched along eastern Anne Arundel County in places like Arnold and Edgewater. With these areas largely removed from this new two-member district, the Democrats will have a much easier time winning. Chuck Ferrar is a very popular local businessman and community figure, and he may actually end up with more votes than Michael Busch, who is the Speaker of the House.

District 31A (Anne Arundel County: Brooklyn Park, Glen Burnie)
Incumbent: none
Challengers: Ned Carey (D), Terry Lynn DeGraw (R)
Projection: D Gain

Technically this was the infamous Don Dwyer’s old seat, before he carpetbagged to Pasadena in a failed attempt to win a seat in 31B. Brooklyn Park community leader Ned Carey is well-known and should win a close one over Terry Lynn DeGraw of Glen Burnie, who has made a race out of this with a well-run campaign.

District 33 (Anne Arundel County: Arnold, Cape St. Claire, Crofton, Crownsville, Millersville, Severna Park)
Incumbents: Cathy Vitale (R), Tony McConkey (R), Ron George (R) – George is retiring
Challengers: Sid Saab (R), Henry Green (D), Tom Angelis (D), Kostas Alexakis (D)
Projection: D Gain

Ron George was drawn into this district from the 30th, but he decided to run for governor instead. The open seat will be going to fellow Republican Sid Saab; that’s not the competitive seat. Delegate Tony McConkey got into ethical trouble when he tried to pass legislation that would make it easier for him to pay off real estate penalties to the state, for which he earned a reprimand from the House and a snub from the other members of the District 33 delegation. Democrat Henry Green has presented himself as a moderate, community-driven alternative and has earned the endorsement of the Gazette. We predict the voters will choose Vitale, Saab, and George.

District 34A (Harford County: Aberdeen, Edgewood, Havre de Grace)
Incumbents: Mary Dulany-James (D), Glen Glass (R)
Challengers: Mary Ann Lisanti (D), Marla Posey-Moss (D), Bob Cassilly (R)
Projection: D Gain

Technically this was the infamous Don Dwyer’s old seat, before he carpetbagged to Pasadena in a failed attempt to win a seat in 31B. Brooklyn Park community leader Ned Carey is well-known and should win a close one over Terry Lynn DeGraw of Glen Burnie, who has made a race out of this with a well-run campaign.

Election Projection 2014: District 32

Senate District 32

Incumbent: Ed DeGrange (D)
Filed Challengers: Larry Barber (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.4%, Larry Barber (R) 39.5%
2006: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.8%, Jon Vandenheuvel (R) 39.1%

32

While ancestrally Democratic areas such as Linthicum have been becoming increasingly red over the years, other areas such as Severn and Hanover have been turning more blue. Senator DeGrange has maintained the support of conservative Democrats even as they vote Republican at the federal level, and should have no trouble winning re-election.

Senator Ed DeGrange (D)

Senator Ed DeGrange (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ed DeGrange (D) raised $117,125, cash on hand $234,442
  2. Larry Barber (R) raised $5,843, cash on hand $1,766

House District 32 – 3 members

Incumbents: Mary Ann Love (D), Ted Sophocleus (D), Pam Beidle (D) – Love will retire
Filed Challengers: Joseph Fioravante (R), Mark Angell (R), Tim Walters (R), Mark Chang (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Pamela Beidle (D) 19.0%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 17.7%, Mary Ann Love (D) 17.6%, Stephanie A. Hodges (R) 16.3%, Wayne Smith (R) 15.7%, David P. Starr (R) 13.6%
2006: Pamela Beidle (D) 18.6%, Mary Ann Love (D) 18.3%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 18.3%, Mark Chang (R) 17.1%, Terry R. Gilleland (R) 14.1%, Wayne Smith (R) 13.6%

Incumbents Pam Beidle and Ted Sophocleus advanced through the primaries, despite some knocks on Del. Sophocleus for his age and his conservative voting record. The most liberal member of this delegation, Mary Ann Love, is retiring and many progressive voters hoped she would be replaced by another more liberal delegate. Instead, the third Democratic spot on the ballot will be filled by Mark Chang. Chang is a Glen Burnie community leader and former political aide to Sen. Ed DeGrange and is the first Korean-American to run for elected office in Anne Arundel County. Chang espouses several conservative social views, which nevertheless seem to be in line with this northern Anne Arundel County district. Chang actually ran as a Republican in 2006 but has since switched parties.

The three Republicans will be Mark Angell, Joseph Fioravante, and Tim Walters. Of them, only Walters has the visibility and the money to be competitive so far. For Walters to win, he would have to convince voters that he’s a better option than one or both of the two weaker Democrats, Sophocleus or Chang. Unfortunately for him, these are also the two most conservative Democrats in the race, so it’s hard to picture him drawing a clear line between his own platform and theirs.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ted Sophocleus (D-inc) raised $65,095, cash on hand $19,523
  2. Pam Beidle (D-inc) raised $57,925, cash on hand $34,922
  3. Mark Chang (D) raised $41,019, cash on hand -$5,624
  4. Tim Walters (R) raised $11,757, cash on hand $4,962
  5. Joseph Fioravante (R) raised $7,935, cash on hand $2,784
  6. Mark Angell (R) raised $1,788, cash on hand $1,086

Election Projection 2014: District 31

Senate District 31

Incumbent: Bryan Simonaire (R)
Filed Challengers: Scott Harman (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Bryan Simonaire (R) 62.1%, Ned Carey (D) 37.8%
2006: Bryan Simonaire (R) 50.8%, Walter J. Shandrowsky (D) 49.1%

Sen. Bryan Simonaire

Sen. Bryan Simonaire

It’s hard to believe that just eight years ago, this district had a Democratic senator. In 2006, Republican Bryan Simonaire managed to win this district by less than 700 votes. We won’t see another close race like that here for a long time. The 31st is based in Pasadena, the center of Republican activity in Anne Arundel County. Through a coalition of the wealthy who live along the Magothy River and on Gibson Island, dissatisfied former blue-collar workers in Pasadena and Riviera Beach, and residents of the eastern Pasadena/Lake Shore countryside, the Republicans have a powerful base here. Senator Simonaire is set to cruise in 2014, although Democrat Scott Harman has stepped up to challenge him.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Bryan Simonaire (R) raised $28,129, cash on hand $21,625
  2. Anthony Scott Harman (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

House District 31A – 1 member

Resident Incumbent: none
Filed Candidates: Ned Carey (D), Terry Lynn DeGraw (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

31a

Brooklyn Park and northern Glen Burnie were shaved off the old 31st District and made into a new single-member 31A. The communities here are strongly Democratic, especially closer to Baltimore City, and popular community leader Ned Carey is the favorite to win the new seat.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ned Carey (D) raised $28,750, cash on hand $16,005
  2. Terry Lynn DeGraw (R) raised $6,766, cash on hand $2,208

House District 31B – 2 members

Incumbents: Nic Kipke (R), Steve Schuh (R), Don Dwyer (R) – Schuh is running for County Executive
Filed Challengers: Jeremiah Chiappelli (D), Doug Morris (D), Meagan Simonaire (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold

31b

The race for 31B has been one of the more dramatic this year. After losing a seat to redistricting, Republicans were faced with three incumbents with only two seats between them. Dropping out of the game of political musical chairs early was Delegate Steve Schuh, who decided to run for County Executive.

Then there is the matter of Maryland’s most infamous legislator: Don Dwyer. First elected in 2002, he was mainly known as a staunch, STAUNCH opponent of gay marriage. On his LinkedIn profile he proudly hails himself as “the most conservative member of the legislature.”

He is more recently known, unfortunately, for driving his boat, while intoxicated, into another boat and injuring 9 people. Months later, he was arrested again for a DUI, this time while driving a car. He is currently serving 30 weekends in prison, and was insanely not required to resign his seat in the legislature. Perhaps more insanely, he has vowed to run again in 2014, although Simonaire and Kipke have formed a slate without him.

Del. Don Dwyer (R)

Del. Don Dwyer (R)

Dwyer’s drama has led to the most competitive Republican primary in the state, eventually won by Senator Bryan Simonaire’s 24-year-old daughter, Meghan. Dwyer ended up placing sixth out of eight candidates with only 7% of the votes.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Nic Kipke (R-inc) raised $53,408, cash on hand $16,462
  2. Meagan Simonaire (R) raised $28,773, cash on hand $3,625
  3. Jeremiah Chiappelli (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  4. Doug Morris (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

 

Election Projection 2014: District 30

Senate District 30

Incumbent: John Astle (D)
Filed Challengers: Don Quinn (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: John Astle (D) 51.1%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 48.8%
2006: John Astle (D) 52.9%, Herb McMillan (R) 47.0%

Old District 30

Old District 30

New District 30

New District 30

District 30 has seen a major change. It gives up Arnold, Cape St. Clair, and its portion of Severna Park to the 33rd, and picks up south county (most of the former 33B). Senator Barbara Mikulski won the precincts of the new 30 with over 53% of the vote in 2010. While these elections will continue to be close, Democrats retain the edge.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. John Astle (D-inc) raised $136,391, cash on hand $198,263
  2. Don Quinn (R) raised $3,270, cash on hand $891

 

House District 30A – 2 members

Incumbents: Michael Busch (D), Ron George (R), Herb McMillan (R) – George was redistricted into the 33rd and made an unsuccessful run for Governor
Filed Challengers: Chuck Ferrar (D), Genevieve Lindner (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

Past Results:
2010: Ron George (R) 19.2%, Michael Busch (D) 18.0%, Herb McMillan (R) 16.9%, Virginia Clagett (D) 15.9%, Seth Howard (R) 15.1%, Judd Legum (D) 14.8%
2006: Michael Busch (D) 17.1%, Virginia Clagett (D) 17.0%, Ron George (R) 16.6%, Barbara Samorajczyk (D) 16.5%, Andy Smarick (R) 15.6%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 15.5%

30a

District 30 has been split into a two-member 30A and a single-member 30B. The new 30A contains the city of Annapolis, south Arnold, and northern Edgewater. With the heavily-Republican areas in Arnold and Severna Park now drawn out of the district, these seats are now much safer for Democrats. Speaker of the House Mike Busch should win here, and former county councilman Chuck Ferrar won the other Democratic nomination. Republican incumbent Herb McMillan will run alongside the unknown Genevieve Lindner.

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 filing deadline:

  1. Michael Busch (D-inc) raised $350,750, cash on hand $345,289
  2. Herb McMillan (R-inc) raised $106,245, cash on hand $76,971
  3. Chuck Ferrar (D) raised $84,545, cash on hand $2,069
  4. Genevieve Lindner (R) raised $1,520, cash on hand $970

 

House District 30B – 1 member

Incumbent: Bob Costa (R) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Seth Howard (R), Mitchelle Stephenson (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold

30b

The new 30B is reminiscent of the old 33B: it consists of southern Anne Arundel County including Edgewater, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Harwood, and Lothian. Notably absent from the new district is Davidsonville, which remains in the new District 33. Although the conservative stronghold of Davidsonville is not in 30B, the southeastern towns around Deale have been trending Republican in recent years, and combined with the reliably conservative communities along the South River, should tilt this race in favor of a Republican. Democratic candidate Mitchelle Stephenson has run a spirited campaign, and is outraising her GOP opponent, Seth Howard.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Mitchelle Stephenson (D) raised $32,614, cash on hand $17,788
  2. Seth Howard (R) raised $19,495, cash on hand $15,226

Election Projection 2014: District 29

Senate District 29

Incumbent: Roy Dyson (D)
Filed Challengers: Stephen Waugh (R)
Projection: Lean R+1

Past Results:
2010: Roy Dyson (D) 51.4%, Stephen Waugh (R) 48.5%
2006: Roy Dyson (D) 63.9%, Thomas F. McKay (R) 35.9%

29

District 29 contains all of St. Mary’s County and a small part of southern Calvert County, in the Lusby area. It has been represented by Senator Roy Dyson since 1995, who had previously served the district in Congress for ten years. Once a Democratic stronghold, southern Maryland has been trending Republican in the past 20 years, and the 2010 election may have served as a jolt of energy for Republicans, who swept the county councils of Calvert and St. Mary’s counties, and saw their candidate Stephen Waugh pull within three percentage points of Dyson. While it’s hard to duplicate a Republican wave like 2010, the election result reflected the county’s trend.

Margin of Dyson victory in 2010. Click to enlarge.

Margin of Dyson victory in 2010. Click to enlarge.

Challenging Dyson is former Marine Steve Waugh, who ran for this seat in 2010 and came within three percentage points of victory. He defeated two sitting St. Mary’s county commissioners in the Republican primary: Cindy Jones and Larry Jarboe, neither of whom were able to raise much money.

Waugh will be campaigning hard in St. Mary’s County, where Dyson won 53% of the votes in 2010. Dyson performed extremely well in the northern part of the county, winning six precincts north of Leonardtown, three with at least 56% of the vote. In contrast, Mitt Romney won all of these precincts in 2012, and Larry Jarboe has represented these precincts as County Commissioner for 16 of the last 20 years.

2010-29result

Assuming Sen. Dyson maintains most of his support in his home county, he will likely try to step up his campaign in Calvert County, where he lost badly four years ago in Waugh’s home turf. Three Calvert precincts have been removed from District 29 this year: two were won by Waugh in 2010 and the third went for Dyson by eight votes. If Dyson wants to hang on to his seat, he will have to appeal to more voters in places like Lusby, where Waugh put up some of his best numbers.

The lone Charles County precinct has also been removed from District 29. Waugh won this precinct by 26 votes.

If Dyson can hang on for another two or three terms, demographic shifts in Lexington Park and the growing number of Washington-based federal employees living in the county may lead to the district shifting back into the blue column. If the Waugh runs a solid campaign, he stands a chance of capturing this district from the entrenched incumbent. If not, Dyson will squeak by with a close victory.

Senator Roy Dyson (D)

Senator Roy Dyson (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Roy Dyson (D-inc) raised $40,855, cash on hand $62,759
  2. Stephen Waugh (R) raised $29,075, cash on hand $6,970

House District 29A – 1 member

Incumbent: John Wood (D) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Matt Morgan (R), Daniel Slade (D), Bryan Barthelme (R), Tommy McKay (R)
Projection: Likely R+1

Past Results:
2010: John Wood (D) 50.9%, Matt Morgan (R) 49.0%
2006: John Wood (D) 65.2%, Joe DiMarco (R) 34.6%

29A

This district in northern St. Mary’s County has been trending towards Republicans for years. Delegate John Wood, a conservative Democrat, has decided to retire rather than attempt another run. The retirement gives the Republicans a sizable advantage, and conservative activist Matt Morgan won a three-way primary. Morgan came within two points of unseating Wood in 2010. The Democrats are not without a contender though, as Leonardtown lawyer Daniel Slade (son of former Delegate John Slade) filed for the seat the day after Wood announced his retirement. This election will reveal just how conservative St. Mary’s County has become.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Matt Morgan (R) raised $40,302, cash on hand $15,934
  2. Daniel Slade (D) raised $22,298, cash on hand $7,543

 

House District 29B – 1 member

Incumbent: John Bohanan (D)
Filed Challengers: Deb Rey (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: John Bohanan (D) 52.4%, Erik Anderson (R) 47.5%
2006: John Bohanan (D) 64.0%, Tim Wood (R) 35.9%

The old alignment of 29B and 29C

The old alignment of 29B and 29C

The new 29B

The new 29B

Districts 29B and 29C have been significantly realigned following population growth in the Lexington Park area. The new 29B covers the southern tip of St. Mary’s County, including California, Lexington Park and St. Mary’s City. This is actually the most Democratic of the three districts in the county, but this year the Republicans have landed a great recruit: Deb Rey, a Republican activist who served for 20 years in the Air Force. Delegate John Bohanan will have his hands full if he wants to win a fifth term, although the redistricting itself may work in his favor, as more conservative precincts in the west were moved to 29C.

Del. John Bohanan (D)

Del. John Bohanan (D)

 

Deb Rey (R)

Deb Rey (R)

As the year progresses, Rey’s fundraising remains pedestrian, while Bohanan’s campaign reported another five digits raised in their May report. If this keeps up, Republican hopes for sweeping St. Mary’s County will evaporate.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. John Bohanan (D-inc) raised $74,569, cash on hand $83,265
  2. Deb Rey (R) raised $21,318, cash on hand $10,574

 

House District 29C – 1 member

Incumbent: Tony O’Donnell (R)
Filed Challengers: Len Zuza (D)
Projection: Likely R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Tony O’Donnell (R) 56.8%, Chris Davies (D) 39.8%
2006: Tony O’Donnell (R) 60.3%, Norma Powers (D) 39.6%

29C

The new District 29C follows Route 4 through the southern tip of Calvert County, then across St. Mary’s County to the eastern edge of Leonardtown. Delegate Tony O’Donnell represents this district, and until recently served as Minority Leader in the House before he was ousted last April. Redistricting has actually made 29C more Republican, so O’Donnell should have little difficulty winning, even though Democrat Len Zuza has raised a respectable amount of money.

Del. Tony O'Donnell (R)

Del. Tony O’Donnell (R)

 

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Len Zuza (D) raised $24,089, cash on hand $18,490
  2. Tony O’Donnell (R-inc) raised $23,680, cash on hand $11,840