Tag Archives: Western MD

Election Projection 2014: District 1

Senate District 1

Incumbent: George C. Edwards (R)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: George C. Edwards (R) unopposed
2006: George C. Edwards (R) 72.7%, Thomas Conlon (D) 27.2%

Senate 1 hasn’t elected a Democrat in the modern period (1986-present). With Garrett and Allegany counties continuing to trend Republican, even an overwhelming blue wave (which is not on the horizon for 2014) wouldn’t flip this seat. Incumbent Senator George Edwards is running unopposed for the second election in a row.

1a

House District 1A – 1 member

Incumbent: Wendell R. Beitzel (R)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Wendell R. Beitzel (R) 72.6%, Smokey Stanton (D) 27.3%
2006: Wendell R. Beitzel (R) 56.3%, Bill Aiken (D) 43.5%

Not much explanation is needed here; Garrett County is the most conservative county in the state. The county that voted 74-23 for Mitt Romney is not expected to yield a Democratic delegate for a very, very long time. Delegate Beitzel will not have any challengers from either party this year, and will cruise to his third term in the House.

1b

House District 1B – 1 member

Incumbent: Kevin Kelly (D)
Filed Challengers: Jason C. Buckel (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Kevin Kelly (D) 51.3%, Mary Beth Pirolozzi (R) 48.6%
2006: Kevin Kelly (D) 55.7%, Mark A. Fisher (R) 44.2%

When a Republican challenger falls short against a weak incumbent in a GOP wave election, you know you’ll need another wave election to have a chance of taking the seat. Allegany County has been trending Republican in recent years, but this district based in Cumberland and Frostburg still has a Democratic electorate at the state level.

While a strongly funded Republican candidate may pose a real threat to Delegate Kevin Kelly, the only Republican in the race is Jason Buckel, who serves on the county’s Republican Central Committee. This is not a heavily Democratic seat, but Kelly’s conservative voting record and A+ rating from the NRA have kept him in step with this western Maryland district. Buckel’s fundraising finally kicked into full gear after the primary, but he has still been outraised by Kelly.

Del. Kevin Kelly (D)

Del. Kevin Kelly (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Kevin Kelly (D-inc) raised $26,155, cash on hand $23,893
  2. Jason Buckel (R) raised $17,490, cash on hand $14,970

 

1c

House District 1C – 1 member

Incumbent: LeRoy Myers (R) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Mike McKay (R), Nick Scarpelli (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: LeRoy Myers (R) 69.7%, Ronald Lohr (D) 30.1%
2006: LeRoy Myers (R) 57.2%, Brian Grim (D) 42.7%

This district extends from Cumberland in Allegany County to Clear Springs in Washington County, and consists of rural and mountainous stretches of western Maryland, as well as most of the city of Cumberland. This used to be the seat of Democratic Speaker Cas Taylor, before he was defeated by current Republican incumbent LeRoy Myers. The Washington County portion of this district will ensure it stays in Republican hands this time, but population increases in Washington County could make this race interesting in 2022.

Mike McKay starts off with significant advantages in name recognition and fundraising, bolstered by his term on the Allegany County council which began in 2010. He has the support of fellow commissioners Creade Brodie and Bill Valentine, as well as outgoing Del. LeRoy Myers. He defeated his primary opponent, gun-rights advocate Ray Givens, 56-44%.

McKay will now face Cumberland city councilman Nick Scarpelli, who has apparently waited until now to start fundraising. Amazingly, it only took him one period to catch up with McKay’s fundraising for the entire cycle, and he would have enough money to make this race competitive if it weren’t such a dark-red district.

County Commissioner Mike McKay (R) leads the Republican field in fundraising

County Commissioner Mike McKay (R) leads the Republican field in fundraising

 

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Mike McKay (R) raised $31,145, cash on hand $75
  2. Nick Scarpelli (D) raised $30,597, cash on hand $4,441

Election Projection 2014: District 3

Senate District 3

Incumbent: Ronald N. Young (D)
Filed Challengers: Corey Stottlemyer (R)
Projection: Likely D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ronald N. Young (D) 51.1%, Alex X. Mooney (R) 48.7%
2006: Alex X. Mooney (R) 51.9%, Candy O. Greenway (D) 47.8%

This race from 2010 gave the state GOP a collective facepalm – the Republican party chairman, Alex Mooney, had lost his own seat in a steadily Republican district in a great Republican year. What went wrong for Mooney? Some argue that he spent more time campaigning for other Republicans than he did in his own district. The simpler answer is that the demographics of the 3rd district simply caught up with him. The southern portion of the county has become more populated by Washington commuters who tend to vote Democratic, and the city of Frederick itself has also moved further into blue territory. In 2000, George Bush beat Al Gore by 19 points. In 2012, Mitt Romney edged Barack Obama by only 3.

Sen. Ron Young (D)

Sen. Ron Young (D)

Now that Mooney has moved to West Virginia and launched a campaign for Congress, Ronald Young’s chances of holding on to this seat are even greater. His opponent in November will be Republican Corey Stottlemyer.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Ron Young (D-inc) raised $35,626, cash on hand $58,658
  2. Corey Stottlemyer (R) raised $7,215, cash on hand $2,027

 

3

House District 3A – 2 members

Incumbents: Galen R. Clagett (D), Patrick Hogan (R) – Clagett will retire, Hogan will not run either
Filed Challengers: Carol Krimm (D),  Karen Lewis Young (D), Paul Smith (R), Victoria Wilkins (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

Past Results:
2010: Galen R. Clagett (D) 27.5%, Patrick Hogan (R) 26.0%, Scott L. Rolle (R) 23.3%, Candy O. Greenway (D) 23.1%
2006: Sue Hecht (D) 28.7%, Galen R. Clagett (D) 25.7%, Patrick Hogan (R) 25.1%, Linda Naylor (R) 20.4%

The city of Frederick has been trending Democratic. From 1995-2007, the two seats were split: one Democrat, one Republican. Democrats took both seats in the 2006 election, but the Republicans took one back in the wave of 2010 with Patrick Hogan, who had previously represented the district from 2003-07. Given the trend, and the fact that Hogan isn’t seeking re-election, the Democrats have a strong chance of sweeping the district again in one of the few truly competitive districts in the state.

Karen Lewis Young has been at the front of the pack from the start. She has a record of public service, having previously served as a Frederick city alderman, and unsuccessfully ran for Mayor in 2013. She also happens to be the wife of Senator Ron Young, who has contributed to her campaign. The other Democrat in the race, Carol Krimm, also served as a Frederick alderman from 2009-2013.

Republican C. Paul Smith has kept up with the Democratic candidates in fundraising. He has served as a Frederick County Commissioner since 2011, winning the second-most votes, behind only Blaine Young. His name recognition and voting record make him a top-tier candidate along with Karen Young and Carol Krimm, but he will be facing a stiff battle in this light-blue district.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Karen Lewis Young (D) raised $20,035, cash on hand $3,901
  2. Paul Smith (R) raised $15,530, cash on hand $6,023
  3. Carol L. Krimm (D) raised $11,665, cash on hand $4,241
  4. Victoria Wilkins (R) raised $4,971, cash on hand $3,592

House District 3B – 1 member

Incumbent: Michael Hough (R) – now in District 4
Filed Challengers: Bill Folden (R), Stephen Slater (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Michael Hough (R) 57.4%, Paul Gilligan (D) 42.4%
2006: Richard B. Weldon (R) 61.4%, Paul Gilligan (D) 38.6%
2002: Richard B. Weldon (R) 62.4%, Lisa Baugher (D) 37.4%

From 2002-2010, this district included just about everything south of Route 40. Starting in 2014, the district will be much more narrow, only about as wide as the Frederick city limits, extending to the Potomac River, due to the rapid population increase of the area south of Frederick. Sen. Barbara Mikulski only lost this district by 1.5% in 2010, which indicates a potential pickup opportunity for Democrats with a strong candidate. The Republican share of the vote has been continuously falling since 2002 and Democrat Stephen Slater has raised a lot of money, but this race is still Bill Folden’s to lose.

 

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Stephen Slater (D) raised $26,972, cash on hand $18,789
  2. Bill Folden (R) raised $6,797, cash on hand $565

Election Projection 2014: District 2

Senate District 2

Incumbent: Christopher B. Shank (R)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Christopher B. Shank (R) 70.9%, Donald F. Munson (R) 28.2%
2006: Donald F. Munson (R) unopposed

This race turned heads in 2010 when then-Delegate Shank’s toppled moderate Republican Senator Munson in 2010. This eastern Washington County district won’t see any more excitement in 2014, as Senator Shank is running unopposed.

2

House District 2A – 2 members

Incumbents: Andrew Serafini (R), Neil Parrott (R)
Filed Challengers: Charles Bailey (D), Elizabeth Paul (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Andrew Serafini (R) 71.0%, Neil Becker (D) 28.8%; Neil Parrott (R) 61.8%, Brien Poffenberger (D) 38.0%
2006: Robert McKee (R) unopposed; Christopher Shank (R) unopposed

old2

Old (2002-2010) District 2 configuration with 2A, 2B, and 2C (shaded)

This is the first district to undergo a major reconstruction in 2014. District 2 was formerly split into three single-member districts (2A, 2B, and 2C), as shown in the map above. Andrew Serafini’s 2A in the northern part of Washington County and Neil Parrott’s 2B from the suburbs of Hagerstown to the Potomac River have been combined into a new two member district. The district is heavily Republican and Parrott and Serafini pushed aside upstart challenger David Hanlin in the primary. They will easily win re-election against Democrats Elizabeth Paul and Charles Bailey in November.

Del. Neil Parrott (R)

Del. Neil Parrott (R)

 

 

 

House District 2B – 1 member

Incumbent: John P. Donoghue (D)
Filed Challengers: Brett Wilson (R)
Projection: Likely D Hold

Past Results:
2010: John P. Donoghue (D) 52.7%, Cort Frederick Meinelschmidt (R) 46.9%
2006: John P. Donoghue (D) 55.5%, Paul Muldowney (R) 44.4%

This Hagerstown district is essentially the old District 2C. It’s a Democratic outpost in a Republican county, and Del. Donoghue will have this seat as long as he wants, even though Republican challenger Brett Wilson has raised a modest amount of money.

Del. John Donoghue (D)

Del. John Donoghue (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Brett Wilson (R) raised $19,209, cash on hand $6,480
  2. John Donoghue (D-inc) raised $2,575, cash on hand $2,607

Election Projection 2014: District 5

Senate District 5

Incumbent: Joseph M. Getty (R)
Filed Challengers: Anita Riley (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Joseph M. Getty (R) 72.1%, Scott Stone (D) 27.8%
2006: Larry E. Haines (R) unopposed

The old District 5 was split between a two-member 5A in Carroll County and a single-member 5B in northern Baltimore County. Now, the 5th will be a three-member district in Carroll County, which as a whole favored Romney over Obama 65-32% in 2012. Senator Getty will win another term in November, over conservative Democrat Anita Riley.

5

House District 5 – 3 members

Incumbents: Justin Ready (R), Nancy R. Stocksdale (R), Wade Kach (R) –  Stocksdale will retire, Kach is now in 42B
Filed Challengers: Del. Susan Krebs (R), Haven Shoemaker (R), Zachary Hands (D), Dorothy Scanlan (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Justin Ready (R) 38.4%, Nancy R. Stocksdale (R) 34.4%, Francis X. Walsh (D) 13.9%, Sharon L. Baker (D) 13.1%; Wade Kach (R) 70.8%, Pete Definbaugh (D) 24.8%
2006: Nancy R. Stocksdale (R) 36.1%, Tanya Shewell (R) 32.9%, Ann Darrin (D) 16.6%, Frank Henry Rammes (D) 14.3%; Wade Kach (R) unopposed

Delegate Stocksdale retired and Delegate Kach was drawn out of the district, leaving two open seats in this dark-red district. In a crowded primary that featured four current or former representatives, two of them, incumbent Justin Ready and Del. Susan Krebs (who was drawn in from District 9) won the nominations. The third spot on the GOP ballot was won by County Commissioner Haven Shoemaker, who was formerly the mayor of Hampstead. Shoemaker has promised to serve no more than two terms.

 

County Commissioner Haven Shoemaker (R)

The two Democrats should not be a factor in this race and Ready, Krebs, and Shoemaker will be the new District 5 delegation next year.

 

Election Projection 2014: District 4

Senate District 4

Incumbent: David Brinkley (R) – defeated in the primary
Filed Challengers: Michael Hough (R), Dan Rupli (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: David R. Brinkley (R) 72.8%, Sara Lou Trescott (D) 27.1%
2006: David R. Brinkley (R) unopposed

Incumbent Sen. David Brinkley (R)

Incumbent Sen. David Brinkley (R)

This race got interesting when Delegate Michael Hough from District 3B was redrawn into District 4 and mounted a fierce challenge to Sen. Brinkley from the right. Hough’s campaign labeled Brinkley a “tax-and-spend” liberal and “O’Malley lite” in a press release. Hough’s superior fundraising and conservative grassroots support led to a commanding 68-32% victory, and Hough looks to carry the Tea Party banner into another Maryland Senate seat.

 

Del. Michael Hough (R) will challenge Sen. Brinkley in June

Del. Michael Hough (R) will challenge Sen. Brinkley in June

Hough’s opponent in November is Democrat Dan Rupli, who picked up a cross-party endorsement from County Commissioner David Gray (R). Some GOP voters who are turned off by Hough’s conservatism might defect to Rupli, but it likely won’t be enough in this dark-red district.

 

Campaign Finances as of the May 27 filing deadline:

  1. Michael Hough (R) raised $139,044, cash on hand $109,836
  2. Dan Rupli (D) raised $1,200, cash on hand $963

 

4

House District 4 – 3 members

Incumbents: Kelly Schulz (R), Kathy Afzali (R), Donald B. Elliott (R) – Elliott is now in District 5
Filed Challengers: Gene Stanton (D), David E. Vogt, III (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Kelly Schulz (R) 32.2%, Kathy Afzali (R) 31.7%, Ryan P. Trout (D) 18.4%, Bonita Riffle Curry (D) 13.3%; Donald B. Elliott (R) 74.9%, Timothy Schlaugh (D) 25.0%
2006: Paul S. Stull (R) 39.5%, Joseph R. Bartlett (R) 36.8%, Maggi Margaret Hays (D) 23.4%; Donald B. Elliott (R) 69.8%, Timothy Schlaugh (D) 30.1%

The fourth district used to be divided into a two-member 4A, based in northern Frederick County, and a one-member 4B, in Mount Airy and western Carroll County. Due to population increases, the new District 4 is a three-member district exclusively in Frederick County. Delegate Don Elliott, who represented 4B since 1987, finds himself in the new District 5. The result is an extra seat for Republicans, and David Vogt defeated two other contenders for the third seat.

Gene Stanton has also filed and will be the lone Democrat in the race. Schulz, Afzali, and Vogt will win easily.