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Elections 2018: District 30
Senate District 30
Incumbent: John Astle (D)
Filed Challengers: Ron George (R), Sarah Elfreth (D), Chrissy Holt (D)
Past Results:
2014: John Astle (D) 51.3%, Don Quinn (R) 48.6%
2010: John Astle (D) 51.1%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 48.8%
District 30 was redrawn considerably in 2014, giving up Arnold and Cape St. Claire in exchange for Edgewater and south county. While Democratic Senator John Astle slightly increased his vote share from 2010 to 2014, the surprising performance by his underfunded Republican opponent, Don Quinn, has put this seat at the top of the GOP’s target list in 2018.
Astle ran for Mayor of Annapolis in 2017, coming up short in the Democratic primary. It’s been expected that he will announce his retirement, but that has yet to happen. Sarah Elfreth has launched her campaign to hold the seat for the Democrats, and has had Astle at her events. Healthcare advocate Chrissy Holt has also launched her campaign, and is running on a progressive platform.
The Republican nomination has come down to two veteran delegates: Ron George and Herb McMillan. George, a former two-term delegate from Arnold, was redrawn into the 33rd district in 2014, and decided to run for Governor instead of running for re-election in his new district. He came in fourth place in the GOP primary for governor, and now he is attempting a political comeback. McMillan has tried to win this seat already – in 2006 – but John Astle beat him 53-47%. He probably wasn’t too pleased when Ron George moved back into District 30 and announced his candidacy. McMillan has a long history of service in Annapolis, and has deep ties in the community, but will he run knowing that Ron George is also running? From a Republican strategic standpoint, that would be a bad idea, as it would mean they would have to field two new candidates for the House in 30A instead of one. But this Senate seat is finally within reach of Republicans, both because of Astle’s assumed retirement and a generous redrawing of the district lines in 2014. Will McMillan give up what is likely his last chance to win it? He seems to be giving it a lot of thought, and has even commissioned an opinion poll that shows him down just 25-29% to George, with 43% undecided.
Ron George (l) and Herb McMillan (r)
Annapolis tends to vote Democratic and is trending bluer, while southern Anne Arundel County votes Republican and is getting redder. I am not sure why these two areas have been grafted together as District 30, given the vast differences between them. As a whole, District 30 voted 69-29% for Larry Hogan and 47.4-46.7% for Donald Trump. As I’ve mentioned, the voting patterns of Annapolis vs. south county are very different, and I have included the vote percentages for the subdistricts below.
House District 30A – 2 members
Incumbents: Michael Busch (D), Herb McMillan (R)
Challengers: Chelsea Gill (R), Mark Plaster (R), Aron Axe (D), Alice Cain (D), Mary Reese (D), Brooks Schandelmeier (D)
Past Results:
2014: Herb McMillan (R) 27.9%, Michael Busch (D) 27.6%, Chuck Ferrar (D) 23.0%, Genevieve Lindner (R) 21.4%
District 30A’s delegation is currently split; they elected Republican Herb McMillan and Democrat Michael Busch to represent them, in that order. Republicans would love to sweep this district, and they point to Larry Hogan’s 58-40% win here as proof that they can. Just two years later, Hillary Clinton won this district 54-39%. This is currently shaping up to be a very good year for Democrats, and progressives are extremely motivated in Annapolis to sweep both seats in this district.
Delegate McMillan, as I mentioned above, is apparently mulling a promotion to State Senate. Republicans are also very keen on sweeping this district, and they landed a decent recruit in Mark Plaster, who ran (unsuccessfully) for Congress in 2016. Plaster is a former Navy Reservist and doctor, who claims that the scientific data suggesting climate change is caused by human action is fraudulent. Republican Chelsea Gill has filed for the race as well.
Mike Busch is Speaker of the House, which means he is personally loathed by conservatives across the state, but also that he has a high degree of respect in his own district and an enormous campaign account. Unlike McMillan, “Iron Mike” is officially in.
Other than Busch, there are four Democrats in the race.
Most of these Democrats may see their campaign goal as to serve alongside Speaker Busch, but if enough voters come out with an out-with-the-old mentality, they may end up throwing Busch out with the bathwater.
Elections 2018: District 9
Senate District 9
Incumbent: Gail Bates (R)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Lean R Hold
Past Results:
2014: Gail Bates (R) 65.8%, Ryan Frederic (D) 34.1%
2010: Allan Kittleman (R) 66.7%, Jim Adams (D) 33.2%
Freshman Senator Gail Bates (R)
Who could run?
- Ryan Frederic – Business owner Ryan Frederic of Glenwood came up short in a very good year for Republicans. There’s always a learning curve to campaigns, and rookie candidates like Frederic can often learn from their mistakes and make a much better showing the second time around. For what it’s worth, Frederic has kept his campaign account open.
- Jon Weinstein – County Councilman from District 1 Jon Weinstein is popular in Ellicott City, which means it’s much more likely that he’ll seek re-election rather than try to make the risky jump to a contested State Senate seat. Still, he is the biggest name Democrats can hope to draw here.
- Tom Coale – The man behind the blog HoCo Rising and the podcast Elevate Maryland might give it a shot. He ran for Delegate from 9B in 2014, winning the Democratic primary convincingly but narrowly losing to former Republican delegate Bob Flanagan in the biggest upset (to me, at least) of the year. From reading his blog, he certainly seems to have his finger on the pulse of Howard County as a whole, but the risk of running in this traditionally Republican district may discourage him from filing.
Here is one of a handful of districts that have been trending in the Democrats’ favor. While Larry Hogan crushed District 9 in 2014, winning 69-29% among Election Day voters, Donald Trump barely managed 50% in this well-educated and quickly suburbanizing district in western Howard County and southern Carroll County. If Democrats want to do more in 2018 than just play defense, which they absolutely must, then they should focus on districts like this one.
House District 9A – 2 members
Incumbents: Trent Kittleman (R), Warren E. Miller (R)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Likely R Hold
Past Results:
2014: Trent Kittleman (R) 37.5%, Warren E. Miller (R) 33.1%, Walter E. Carson (D) 15.6%, James Ward Morrow (D) 13.7%
2010: Gail Bates (R) 30.6%, Warren E. Miller (R) 28.0%, Maryann Maher (D) 21.5%, Jonathan Weinstein (D) 19.9%
Del. Warren Miller (R)
The only way Democrats are going to have a chance in District 9 is to improve their performance in the two-member District 9A, which is heavily Republican thanks to rural west county, Sykesville, and Eldersburg. Larry Hogan won here 74-25%, and Trump won 55-38%. Those Trump numbers should put 9A in play for some adventurous Democrats who have deep ties to their communities and are willing to run vigorous campaigns; 17-point margins are being erased all over the country as the President’s popularity continues to plummet.
House District 9B – 1 member
Incumbent: Bob Flanagan (R)
Filed Challengers: Daniel Medinger (D)
Projection: Likely D+1
Past Results:
2014: Bob Flanagan (R) 54.9%, Tom Coale (D) 45.1%
Delegate Bob Flanagan (R)
In 2014, I predicted a Democratic pickup here. Even with a well-funded candidate and a new district that looked favorable to Democrats, it just didn’t happen. That year was also an unusually good year for Republicans nationwide, and it’s looking like 2018 will be just the opposite. While Larry Hogan won here 57-41%, Hillary Clinton won 57-37%, and progressives in Ellicott City are fired up.
Election Projection 2014: District 33
Senate District 33
Incumbent: Ed Reilly (R)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe R Hold
Past Results:
2010: Ed Reilly (R) unopposed
2006: Janet Greenip (R) 56.1%, Scott Hymes (D) 43.9%
The old District 33 was split into a two-member 33A in Millersville and Crofton, and a one-member 33B from Crownsville, Davidsonville, and south county.
Former configuration of District 33A and 33B (2002-2010)
The new District 33 is a three-member district that includes Severna Park, Millersville, Crofton, Crownsville, Davidsonville, and northern Arnold. The 33rd took on much of the Broadneck Peninsula from the 30th. The resulting district contains most of the Republican-voting precincts in central Anne Arundel County.
Senator Reilly took over from the retiring Senator Greenip after being elected twice to the County Council. Nobody signed up to oppose him this year, so he has already won re-election.
House District 33 – 3 members
Incumbents: Cathy Vitale (R), Tony McConkey (R), Bob Costa (R) – Costa was drawn into District 30B and will retire
Filed Challengers: Henry Green (D), Sid Saab (R), Tom Angelis (D), Kostas Alexakis (D)
Projection: Lean D+1
Past Results:
2010: Cathy Vitale (R) 41.7%, Tony McConkey (R) 32.3%, Madonna Brennan (D) 25.7%
2006: James King (R) 29.0%, Tony McConkey (R) 26.0%, Patricia Weathersbee (D) 23.8%. Paul G. Rudolph (D) 21.0%
With the Republican power base in Severna Park drawn into one district now rather than two (30 and 33 used to have portions of Severna Park), the list of Republican candidates for this race has become understandably long. The biggest name drawn into the district was Delegate Ron George, who has decided to run for Governor rather than seek re-election in the 33rd.
The new district will elect three delegates, and the crowded GOP primary was the scene for most of the action. Del. Vitale is very popular and easily won the first Republican nomination. Sid Saab of Crownsville ran a very good campaign and took the second Republican nomination. Del. McConkey was actually reprimanded by the General Assembly for ethical misconduct in 2012, after he tried to pass legislation that would make it easier for him to pay off his real estate penalties to the state. Still, he managed to cling to the third spot on the ballot.
These three candidates are the strongest supporters of a Crofton high school, and earned the endorsement of the Capital Gazette
Democrat Henry Green, a former Baptist minister, has presented himself as a moderate, community-driven alternative and has earned the endorsement of the Gazette. Along with Vitale and Saab, he has been vocal in supporting the efforts to build a high school in Crofton.
The other Democrats in the race are 2004 Congressional candidate Kostas Alexakis and former Republican candidate for County Executive Tom Angelis.
While Severna Park and Millersville tend to vote for Republicans, they are also well-informed voters who have some of the highest turnout numbers in the county. Honest, ethical representatives are more important than political parties, and we predict the voters will choose Vitale, Saab, and Green.
Election Projection 2014: District 32
Senate District 32
Incumbent: Ed DeGrange (D)
Filed Challengers: Larry Barber (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold
Past Results:
2010: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.4%, Larry Barber (R) 39.5%
2006: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.8%, Jon Vandenheuvel (R) 39.1%
While ancestrally Democratic areas such as Linthicum have been becoming increasingly red over the years, other areas such as Severn and Hanover have been turning more blue. Senator DeGrange has maintained the support of conservative Democrats even as they vote Republican at the federal level, and should have no trouble winning re-election.
Senator Ed DeGrange (D)
Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:
- Ed DeGrange (D) raised $117,125, cash on hand $234,442
- Larry Barber (R) raised $5,843, cash on hand $1,766
House District 32 – 3 members
Incumbents: Mary Ann Love (D), Ted Sophocleus (D), Pam Beidle (D) – Love will retire
Filed Challengers: Joseph Fioravante (R), Mark Angell (R), Tim Walters (R), Mark Chang (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold
Past Results:
2010: Pamela Beidle (D) 19.0%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 17.7%, Mary Ann Love (D) 17.6%, Stephanie A. Hodges (R) 16.3%, Wayne Smith (R) 15.7%, David P. Starr (R) 13.6%
2006: Pamela Beidle (D) 18.6%, Mary Ann Love (D) 18.3%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 18.3%, Mark Chang (R) 17.1%, Terry R. Gilleland (R) 14.1%, Wayne Smith (R) 13.6%
Incumbents Pam Beidle and Ted Sophocleus advanced through the primaries, despite some knocks on Del. Sophocleus for his age and his conservative voting record. The most liberal member of this delegation, Mary Ann Love, is retiring and many progressive voters hoped she would be replaced by another more liberal delegate. Instead, the third Democratic spot on the ballot will be filled by Mark Chang. Chang is a Glen Burnie community leader and former political aide to Sen. Ed DeGrange and is the first Korean-American to run for elected office in Anne Arundel County. Chang espouses several conservative social views, which nevertheless seem to be in line with this northern Anne Arundel County district. Chang actually ran as a Republican in 2006 but has since switched parties.
The three Republicans will be Mark Angell, Joseph Fioravante, and Tim Walters. Of them, only Walters has the visibility and the money to be competitive so far. For Walters to win, he would have to convince voters that he’s a better option than one or both of the two weaker Democrats, Sophocleus or Chang. Unfortunately for him, these are also the two most conservative Democrats in the race, so it’s hard to picture him drawing a clear line between his own platform and theirs.
Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:
- Ted Sophocleus (D-inc) raised $65,095, cash on hand $19,523
- Pam Beidle (D-inc) raised $57,925, cash on hand $34,922
- Mark Chang (D) raised $41,019, cash on hand -$5,624
- Tim Walters (R) raised $11,757, cash on hand $4,962
- Joseph Fioravante (R) raised $7,935, cash on hand $2,784
- Mark Angell (R) raised $1,788, cash on hand $1,086
Election Projection 2014: District 31
Senate District 31
Incumbent: Bryan Simonaire (R)
Filed Challengers: Scott Harman (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold
Past Results:
2010: Bryan Simonaire (R) 62.1%, Ned Carey (D) 37.8%
2006: Bryan Simonaire (R) 50.8%, Walter J. Shandrowsky (D) 49.1%
Sen. Bryan Simonaire
It’s hard to believe that just eight years ago, this district had a Democratic senator. In 2006, Republican Bryan Simonaire managed to win this district by less than 700 votes. We won’t see another close race like that here for a long time. The 31st is based in Pasadena, the center of Republican activity in Anne Arundel County. Through a coalition of the wealthy who live along the Magothy River and on Gibson Island, dissatisfied former blue-collar workers in Pasadena and Riviera Beach, and residents of the eastern Pasadena/Lake Shore countryside, the Republicans have a powerful base here. Senator Simonaire is set to cruise in 2014, although Democrat Scott Harman has stepped up to challenge him.
Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:
- Bryan Simonaire (R) raised $28,129, cash on hand $21,625
- Anthony Scott Harman (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
House District 31A – 1 member
Resident Incumbent: none
Filed Candidates: Ned Carey (D), Terry Lynn DeGraw (R)
Projection: Likely D+1
Brooklyn Park and northern Glen Burnie were shaved off the old 31st District and made into a new single-member 31A. The communities here are strongly Democratic, especially closer to Baltimore City, and popular community leader Ned Carey is the favorite to win the new seat.
Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:
- Ned Carey (D) raised $28,750, cash on hand $16,005
- Terry Lynn DeGraw (R) raised $6,766, cash on hand $2,208
House District 31B – 2 members
Incumbents: Nic Kipke (R), Steve Schuh (R), Don Dwyer (R) – Schuh is running for County Executive
Filed Challengers: Jeremiah Chiappelli (D), Doug Morris (D), Meagan Simonaire (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold
The race for 31B has been one of the more dramatic this year. After losing a seat to redistricting, Republicans were faced with three incumbents with only two seats between them. Dropping out of the game of political musical chairs early was Delegate Steve Schuh, who decided to run for County Executive.
Then there is the matter of Maryland’s most infamous legislator: Don Dwyer. First elected in 2002, he was mainly known as a staunch, STAUNCH opponent of gay marriage. On his LinkedIn profile he proudly hails himself as “the most conservative member of the legislature.”
He is more recently known, unfortunately, for driving his boat, while intoxicated, into another boat and injuring 9 people. Months later, he was arrested again for a DUI, this time while driving a car. He is currently serving 30 weekends in prison, and was insanely not required to resign his seat in the legislature. Perhaps more insanely, he has vowed to run again in 2014, although Simonaire and Kipke have formed a slate without him.
Del. Don Dwyer (R)
Dwyer’s drama has led to the most competitive Republican primary in the state, eventually won by Senator Bryan Simonaire’s 24-year-old daughter, Meghan. Dwyer ended up placing sixth out of eight candidates with only 7% of the votes.
Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:
- Nic Kipke (R-inc) raised $53,408, cash on hand $16,462
- Meagan Simonaire (R) raised $28,773, cash on hand $3,625
- Jeremiah Chiappelli (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
- Doug Morris (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
Election Projection 2014: District 30
Senate District 30
Incumbent: John Astle (D)
Filed Challengers: Don Quinn (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold
Past Results:
2010: John Astle (D) 51.1%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 48.8%
2006: John Astle (D) 52.9%, Herb McMillan (R) 47.0%
Old District 30
New District 30
District 30 has seen a major change. It gives up Arnold, Cape St. Clair, and its portion of Severna Park to the 33rd, and picks up south county (most of the former 33B). Senator Barbara Mikulski won the precincts of the new 30 with over 53% of the vote in 2010. While these elections will continue to be close, Democrats retain the edge.
Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:
- John Astle (D-inc) raised $136,391, cash on hand $198,263
- Don Quinn (R) raised $3,270, cash on hand $891
House District 30A – 2 members
Incumbents: Michael Busch (D), Ron George (R), Herb McMillan (R) – George was redistricted into the 33rd and made an unsuccessful run for Governor
Filed Challengers: Chuck Ferrar (D), Genevieve Lindner (R)
Projection: Likely D+1
Past Results:
2010: Ron George (R) 19.2%, Michael Busch (D) 18.0%, Herb McMillan (R) 16.9%, Virginia Clagett (D) 15.9%, Seth Howard (R) 15.1%, Judd Legum (D) 14.8%
2006: Michael Busch (D) 17.1%, Virginia Clagett (D) 17.0%, Ron George (R) 16.6%, Barbara Samorajczyk (D) 16.5%, Andy Smarick (R) 15.6%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 15.5%
District 30 has been split into a two-member 30A and a single-member 30B. The new 30A contains the city of Annapolis, south Arnold, and northern Edgewater. With the heavily-Republican areas in Arnold and Severna Park now drawn out of the district, these seats are now much safer for Democrats. Speaker of the House Mike Busch should win here, and former county councilman Chuck Ferrar won the other Democratic nomination. Republican incumbent Herb McMillan will run alongside the unknown Genevieve Lindner.
Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)
Campaign Finances as of the June 13 filing deadline:
- Michael Busch (D-inc) raised $350,750, cash on hand $345,289
- Herb McMillan (R-inc) raised $106,245, cash on hand $76,971
- Chuck Ferrar (D) raised $84,545, cash on hand $2,069
- Genevieve Lindner (R) raised $1,520, cash on hand $970
House District 30B – 1 member
Incumbent: Bob Costa (R) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Seth Howard (R), Mitchelle Stephenson (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold
The new 30B is reminiscent of the old 33B: it consists of southern Anne Arundel County including Edgewater, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Harwood, and Lothian. Notably absent from the new district is Davidsonville, which remains in the new District 33. Although the conservative stronghold of Davidsonville is not in 30B, the southeastern towns around Deale have been trending Republican in recent years, and combined with the reliably conservative communities along the South River, should tilt this race in favor of a Republican. Democratic candidate Mitchelle Stephenson has run a spirited campaign, and is outraising her GOP opponent, Seth Howard.
Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:
- Mitchelle Stephenson (D) raised $32,614, cash on hand $17,788
- Seth Howard (R) raised $19,495, cash on hand $15,226
