Tag Archives: Central MD

Election Projection 2014: District 33

Senate District 33

Incumbent: Ed Reilly (R)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ed Reilly (R) unopposed
2006: Janet Greenip (R) 56.1%, Scott Hymes (D) 43.9%

33

The old District 33 was split into a two-member 33A in Millersville and Crofton, and a one-member 33B from Crownsville, Davidsonville, and south county.

Former configuration of District 33A and 33B (2002-2010)

Former configuration of District 33A and 33B (2002-2010)

The new District 33 is a three-member district that includes Severna Park, Millersville, Crofton, Crownsville, Davidsonville, and northern Arnold. The 33rd took on much of the Broadneck Peninsula from the 30th. The resulting district contains most of the Republican-voting precincts in central Anne Arundel County.

Senator Reilly took over from the retiring Senator Greenip after being elected twice to the County Council. Nobody signed up to oppose him this year, so he has already won re-election.

 

House District 33 – 3 members

Incumbents: Cathy Vitale (R), Tony McConkey (R), Bob Costa (R) – Costa was drawn into District 30B and will retire
Filed Challengers: Henry Green (D), Sid Saab (R), Tom Angelis (D), Kostas Alexakis (D)
Projection: Lean D+1

Past Results:
2010: Cathy Vitale (R) 41.7%, Tony McConkey (R) 32.3%, Madonna Brennan (D) 25.7%
2006: James King (R) 29.0%, Tony McConkey (R) 26.0%, Patricia Weathersbee (D) 23.8%. Paul G. Rudolph (D) 21.0%

With the Republican power base in Severna Park drawn into one district now rather than two (30 and 33 used to have portions of Severna Park), the list of Republican candidates for this race has become understandably long. The biggest name drawn into the district was Delegate Ron George, who has decided to run for Governor rather than seek re-election in the 33rd.

The new district will elect three delegates, and the crowded GOP primary was the scene for most of the action. Del. Vitale is very popular and easily won the first Republican nomination. Sid Saab of Crownsville ran a very good campaign and took the second Republican nomination. Del. McConkey was actually reprimanded by the General Assembly for ethical misconduct in 2012, after he tried to pass legislation that would make it easier for him to pay off his real estate penalties to the state. Still, he managed to cling to the third spot on the ballot.

These three candidates are the strongest supporters of a Crofton high school, and earned the endorsement of the Capital Gazette

These three candidates are the strongest supporters of a Crofton high school, and earned the endorsement of the Capital Gazette

Democrat Henry Green, a former Baptist minister, has presented himself as a moderate, community-driven alternative and has earned the endorsement of the Gazette. Along with Vitale and Saab, he has been vocal in supporting the efforts to build a high school in Crofton.

The other Democrats in the race are 2004 Congressional candidate Kostas Alexakis and former Republican candidate for County Executive Tom Angelis.

While Severna Park and Millersville tend to vote for Republicans, they are also well-informed voters who have some of the highest turnout numbers in the county. Honest, ethical representatives are more important than political parties, and we predict the voters will choose Vitale, Saab, and Green.

Election Projection 2014: District 12

Senate District 12

Incumbent: Edward Kasemeyer (D)
Filed Challengers: Jesse Pippy (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Edward Kasemeyer (D) 58.7%, Rick Martel (R) 41.3%
2006: Edward Kasemeyer (D) 62.3%, Rick Martel (R) 37.6%

The 12th District changes little, remaining anchored in southwest Baltimore County and including a strip of central Columbia in Howard County. The main difference is that the districts 12A and 12B have been combined into a single three-member district. Senator Kasemeyer has filed for re-election and will likely win again.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Edward Kasemeyer (D-inc) raised $74,982, cash on hand $114,798
  2. Jesse Pippy (R) raised $23,668, cash on hand $16,351

 

12

House District 12 – 3 members

Incumbents: James E. Malone (D), Steven DeBoy (D), Elizabeth Bobo (D) – all retiring: Malone, DeBoy, Bobo
Filed Challengers: Eric Ebersole (D), Terri Hill (D), Clarence K. Lam (D), Gordon Bull (R), Joe Hooe (R), Rick Martel (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: James E. Malone (D) 28.3%, Steven DeBoy (D) 26.1%, Joe Hooe (R) 24.7%, Albert L. Nalley (R) 20.9%; Elizabeth Bobo (D) 71.6%, Robert Wheatley (R) 28.4%
2006: James E. Malone (D) 30.6%, Steven DeBoy (D) 28.1%, Joe Hooe (R) 22.5%, Albert L. Nalley (R) 18.8%; Elizabeth Bobo (D) 75.3%, Christopher J. Feldwick (R) 24.6%

This is a rare case where all three seats are open due to retirement. The precincts making up the new district gave Senator Mikulski 60.6% of the vote in 2010 (great candidate in a horrible year), so it should come as so surprise that a host of Democrats have filed for the seat: 10 to be exact. The winners were teacher Eric Ebersole and physicians Terri Hill and Clarence Lam.

There were only three Republicans who ran, making their primary choice very easy. The candidates are businessmen Gordon Bull of Arbutus and Joe Hooe of Lansdowne, and attorney Rick Martel of Catonsville.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Terri Hill (D) raised $105,966, cash on hand $6,481
  2. Clarence Lam (D) raised $91,319, cash on hand $15,000
  3. Eric Ebersole (D) raised $45,080, cash on hand $6,884
  4. Joe Hooe (R) raised $8,210, cash on hand $2,090
  5. Gordon Bull (R) raised $4,234, cash on hand $793
  6. Rick Martel (R) raised $1,825, cash on hand $900

Election Projection 2014: District 32

Senate District 32

Incumbent: Ed DeGrange (D)
Filed Challengers: Larry Barber (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.4%, Larry Barber (R) 39.5%
2006: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.8%, Jon Vandenheuvel (R) 39.1%

32

While ancestrally Democratic areas such as Linthicum have been becoming increasingly red over the years, other areas such as Severn and Hanover have been turning more blue. Senator DeGrange has maintained the support of conservative Democrats even as they vote Republican at the federal level, and should have no trouble winning re-election.

Senator Ed DeGrange (D)

Senator Ed DeGrange (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ed DeGrange (D) raised $117,125, cash on hand $234,442
  2. Larry Barber (R) raised $5,843, cash on hand $1,766

House District 32 – 3 members

Incumbents: Mary Ann Love (D), Ted Sophocleus (D), Pam Beidle (D) – Love will retire
Filed Challengers: Joseph Fioravante (R), Mark Angell (R), Tim Walters (R), Mark Chang (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Pamela Beidle (D) 19.0%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 17.7%, Mary Ann Love (D) 17.6%, Stephanie A. Hodges (R) 16.3%, Wayne Smith (R) 15.7%, David P. Starr (R) 13.6%
2006: Pamela Beidle (D) 18.6%, Mary Ann Love (D) 18.3%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 18.3%, Mark Chang (R) 17.1%, Terry R. Gilleland (R) 14.1%, Wayne Smith (R) 13.6%

Incumbents Pam Beidle and Ted Sophocleus advanced through the primaries, despite some knocks on Del. Sophocleus for his age and his conservative voting record. The most liberal member of this delegation, Mary Ann Love, is retiring and many progressive voters hoped she would be replaced by another more liberal delegate. Instead, the third Democratic spot on the ballot will be filled by Mark Chang. Chang is a Glen Burnie community leader and former political aide to Sen. Ed DeGrange and is the first Korean-American to run for elected office in Anne Arundel County. Chang espouses several conservative social views, which nevertheless seem to be in line with this northern Anne Arundel County district. Chang actually ran as a Republican in 2006 but has since switched parties.

The three Republicans will be Mark Angell, Joseph Fioravante, and Tim Walters. Of them, only Walters has the visibility and the money to be competitive so far. For Walters to win, he would have to convince voters that he’s a better option than one or both of the two weaker Democrats, Sophocleus or Chang. Unfortunately for him, these are also the two most conservative Democrats in the race, so it’s hard to picture him drawing a clear line between his own platform and theirs.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ted Sophocleus (D-inc) raised $65,095, cash on hand $19,523
  2. Pam Beidle (D-inc) raised $57,925, cash on hand $34,922
  3. Mark Chang (D) raised $41,019, cash on hand -$5,624
  4. Tim Walters (R) raised $11,757, cash on hand $4,962
  5. Joseph Fioravante (R) raised $7,935, cash on hand $2,784
  6. Mark Angell (R) raised $1,788, cash on hand $1,086

Election Projection 2014: District 31

Senate District 31

Incumbent: Bryan Simonaire (R)
Filed Challengers: Scott Harman (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Bryan Simonaire (R) 62.1%, Ned Carey (D) 37.8%
2006: Bryan Simonaire (R) 50.8%, Walter J. Shandrowsky (D) 49.1%

Sen. Bryan Simonaire

Sen. Bryan Simonaire

It’s hard to believe that just eight years ago, this district had a Democratic senator. In 2006, Republican Bryan Simonaire managed to win this district by less than 700 votes. We won’t see another close race like that here for a long time. The 31st is based in Pasadena, the center of Republican activity in Anne Arundel County. Through a coalition of the wealthy who live along the Magothy River and on Gibson Island, dissatisfied former blue-collar workers in Pasadena and Riviera Beach, and residents of the eastern Pasadena/Lake Shore countryside, the Republicans have a powerful base here. Senator Simonaire is set to cruise in 2014, although Democrat Scott Harman has stepped up to challenge him.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Bryan Simonaire (R) raised $28,129, cash on hand $21,625
  2. Anthony Scott Harman (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

House District 31A – 1 member

Resident Incumbent: none
Filed Candidates: Ned Carey (D), Terry Lynn DeGraw (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

31a

Brooklyn Park and northern Glen Burnie were shaved off the old 31st District and made into a new single-member 31A. The communities here are strongly Democratic, especially closer to Baltimore City, and popular community leader Ned Carey is the favorite to win the new seat.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ned Carey (D) raised $28,750, cash on hand $16,005
  2. Terry Lynn DeGraw (R) raised $6,766, cash on hand $2,208

House District 31B – 2 members

Incumbents: Nic Kipke (R), Steve Schuh (R), Don Dwyer (R) – Schuh is running for County Executive
Filed Challengers: Jeremiah Chiappelli (D), Doug Morris (D), Meagan Simonaire (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold

31b

The race for 31B has been one of the more dramatic this year. After losing a seat to redistricting, Republicans were faced with three incumbents with only two seats between them. Dropping out of the game of political musical chairs early was Delegate Steve Schuh, who decided to run for County Executive.

Then there is the matter of Maryland’s most infamous legislator: Don Dwyer. First elected in 2002, he was mainly known as a staunch, STAUNCH opponent of gay marriage. On his LinkedIn profile he proudly hails himself as “the most conservative member of the legislature.”

He is more recently known, unfortunately, for driving his boat, while intoxicated, into another boat and injuring 9 people. Months later, he was arrested again for a DUI, this time while driving a car. He is currently serving 30 weekends in prison, and was insanely not required to resign his seat in the legislature. Perhaps more insanely, he has vowed to run again in 2014, although Simonaire and Kipke have formed a slate without him.

Del. Don Dwyer (R)

Del. Don Dwyer (R)

Dwyer’s drama has led to the most competitive Republican primary in the state, eventually won by Senator Bryan Simonaire’s 24-year-old daughter, Meghan. Dwyer ended up placing sixth out of eight candidates with only 7% of the votes.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Nic Kipke (R-inc) raised $53,408, cash on hand $16,462
  2. Meagan Simonaire (R) raised $28,773, cash on hand $3,625
  3. Jeremiah Chiappelli (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  4. Doug Morris (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

 

Election Projection 2014: District 30

Senate District 30

Incumbent: John Astle (D)
Filed Challengers: Don Quinn (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: John Astle (D) 51.1%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 48.8%
2006: John Astle (D) 52.9%, Herb McMillan (R) 47.0%

Old District 30

Old District 30

New District 30

New District 30

District 30 has seen a major change. It gives up Arnold, Cape St. Clair, and its portion of Severna Park to the 33rd, and picks up south county (most of the former 33B). Senator Barbara Mikulski won the precincts of the new 30 with over 53% of the vote in 2010. While these elections will continue to be close, Democrats retain the edge.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. John Astle (D-inc) raised $136,391, cash on hand $198,263
  2. Don Quinn (R) raised $3,270, cash on hand $891

 

House District 30A – 2 members

Incumbents: Michael Busch (D), Ron George (R), Herb McMillan (R) – George was redistricted into the 33rd and made an unsuccessful run for Governor
Filed Challengers: Chuck Ferrar (D), Genevieve Lindner (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

Past Results:
2010: Ron George (R) 19.2%, Michael Busch (D) 18.0%, Herb McMillan (R) 16.9%, Virginia Clagett (D) 15.9%, Seth Howard (R) 15.1%, Judd Legum (D) 14.8%
2006: Michael Busch (D) 17.1%, Virginia Clagett (D) 17.0%, Ron George (R) 16.6%, Barbara Samorajczyk (D) 16.5%, Andy Smarick (R) 15.6%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 15.5%

30a

District 30 has been split into a two-member 30A and a single-member 30B. The new 30A contains the city of Annapolis, south Arnold, and northern Edgewater. With the heavily-Republican areas in Arnold and Severna Park now drawn out of the district, these seats are now much safer for Democrats. Speaker of the House Mike Busch should win here, and former county councilman Chuck Ferrar won the other Democratic nomination. Republican incumbent Herb McMillan will run alongside the unknown Genevieve Lindner.

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 filing deadline:

  1. Michael Busch (D-inc) raised $350,750, cash on hand $345,289
  2. Herb McMillan (R-inc) raised $106,245, cash on hand $76,971
  3. Chuck Ferrar (D) raised $84,545, cash on hand $2,069
  4. Genevieve Lindner (R) raised $1,520, cash on hand $970

 

House District 30B – 1 member

Incumbent: Bob Costa (R) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Seth Howard (R), Mitchelle Stephenson (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold

30b

The new 30B is reminiscent of the old 33B: it consists of southern Anne Arundel County including Edgewater, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Harwood, and Lothian. Notably absent from the new district is Davidsonville, which remains in the new District 33. Although the conservative stronghold of Davidsonville is not in 30B, the southeastern towns around Deale have been trending Republican in recent years, and combined with the reliably conservative communities along the South River, should tilt this race in favor of a Republican. Democratic candidate Mitchelle Stephenson has run a spirited campaign, and is outraising her GOP opponent, Seth Howard.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Mitchelle Stephenson (D) raised $32,614, cash on hand $17,788
  2. Seth Howard (R) raised $19,495, cash on hand $15,226

Election Projection 2014: District 9

Senate District 9

Incumbent: Allan Kittleman (R) – will run for Howard County Executive in 2014
Filed Challengers: Ryan Frederic (D), Gail Bates (R)
Projection: Lean R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Allan Kittleman (R) 66.7%, Jim Adams (D) 33.2%
2006: Allan Kittleman (R) 62.2%, Rich Corkran (D) 37.8%

Sen. Allan Kittleman (R) will run for Howard County Executive

Sen. Allan Kittleman (R) will run for Howard County Executive

Popular incumbent Senator Kittleman is running for County Executive, leaving the Senate seat open. The new 9th traded away central Carroll County for northern Ellicott City, a move which will swing the district strongly in a blue direction. However, even with a general shift in Howard County toward Democrats, the 9th will likely stay in Republican hands, even if Kittleman’s successor does not possess his bipartisan appeal. Republican Delegate Gail Bates has announced her candidacy for the seat, and conventional wisdom has her starting off as the front-runner with strong advantages in party identification and name recognition. and fundraising. The only weakness she seems to have is her bank account; Bates has raised less than a quarter of the amount brought in by her Democratic opponent, businessman Ryan Frederic, who won a close primary over fellow business owner Dan Medinger which saw both candidates raise over $100,000 each.

Frederic is endorsed by several progressive groups, including the NARAL Pro-Choice Maryland PAC, Equality Maryland, and the League of Conservation Voters. Between his endorsements, his bank account, and the blue trend in Howard County, Frederic might just win this race.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ryan Frederic (D) raised $144,986, cash on hand $83,968
  2. Gail Bates (R) raised $30,618, cash on hand $50,337

 

9a

House District 9A – 2 members

Incumbents: Gail Bates (R), Warren E. Miller (R) – Bates will run for State Senate
Filed Challengers: Trent Kittleman (R), Walter E. Carson (D), James Ward Morrow (D)
Projection: Likely R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Gail Bates (R) 30.6%, Warren E. Miller (R) 28.0%, Maryann Maher (D) 21.5%, Jonathan Weinstein (D) 19.9%
2006: Gail Bates (R) 39.6%, Warren E. Miller (R) 32.1%, David Leonard Osmundson (D) 28.0%

With Delegate Miller running for re-election, and Bates running for Senate, there is effectively one seat in play in this two-member Republican district in northern Howard and southern Carroll County. Trent Kittleman served several roles in the state Department of Transportation under Ehrlich, and is the mother of Allan. Frank Mirabile was the 2010 Republican nominee for Congress in the 7th district, running against Rep. Elijah Cummings.

Del. Warren Miller (R)

Del. Warren Miller (R)

The precincts in this district only gave 41% of the vote to Sen. Barbara Mikulski in 2010, so it is likely to remain in Republican hands.

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 filing deadline:

  1. Warren Miller (R-inc) raised $33,140, cash on hand $21,460
  2. Trent Kittleman (R) raised $12,431, cash on hand $1,498
  3. James Ward Morrow (D) raised $4,075, cash on hand $7,357
  4. Walter Carson (D) raised $200, cash on hand $200

9b

House District 9B – 1 member

Incumbent: Susan Krebs (R) – now in District 5
Filed Challengers: Carol Loveless (R), Tom Coale (D), Rich Corkran (D), Bob Flanagan (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

District 9B is in a completely different place than before redistricting. Formerly in south Carroll County, this district is now in central Howard County, including Ellicott City and parts of Columbia and Elkridge. The precincts that make up the new district gave 56% of the vote to Senator Mikulski in 2010, so this should be an easy Democratic pickup.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Tom Coale (D) raised $68,443, cash on hand $26,182
  2. Bob Flanagan (R) raised $19,706, cash on hand $4,904

Election Projection 2014: District 21

Senate District 21

Incumbent: Jim Rosapepe (D)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Jim Rosapepe (D) unopposed
2006: Jim Rosapepe (D) 67.5%, John Giannetti (R) 32.4%

Sen. James C. Rosapepe (D)

Sen. James C. Rosapepe (D)

This district includes College Park, Beltsville, Laurel, and most of Odenton. Without opposition from either Democrats or Republicans, Sen. Rosapepe will cruise to an easy re-election in 2014.

21

House District 21 – 3 members

Incumbents: Ben Barnes (D), Barbara Frush (D), Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D)
Filed Challengers: Katherine M. Butcher (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ben Barnes (D) 25.2%, Barbara Frush (D) 24.8%, Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D) 24.5%, Scott Dibiasio (R) 8.1%, Jason W. Papanikolas (R) 8.0%, Kat Nelson (R) 7.7%, Bryan Walker (L) 1.5%
2006: Ben Barnes (D) 29.6%, Barbara Frush (D) 29.3%, Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D) 28.9%, Neil B. Sood (R) 11.8%

Even with the addition of more of Anne Arundel County, the 21st District is still heavily Democratic and should send all three incumbents back to Annapolis.

"Team 21:" Dels. Barbara Frush, Ben Barnes, Joseline Peña-Melnyk

“Team 21:” Dels. Barbara Frush, Ben Barnes, Joseline Peña-Melnyk

Election Projection 2014: District 13

Senate District 13

Incumbent: James N. Robey (D) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Del. Guy Guzzone (D), Jody Venkatesan (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: James N. Robey (D) 63.0%, Kyle Lorton (R) 36.8%
2006: James N. Robey (D) 56.1%, Sandra B. Schrader (R) 43.8%

Del. Guy Guzzone (D)

Del. Guy Guzzone (D)

For now, this seems like a pretty typical handoff: an old senator retires, and one of the delegates steps up to take the spot. This district has been trending Democratic for years, and has only been in Democratic hands since 2006 when James Robey defeated incumbent Senator Sandra Schrader. Senator Robey then proceeded to take 63% of the vote in a year where Republicans were overperforming across the board. Senator Mikulski took 66% of the vote in the precincts that make up District 13, so if Guzzone wins the primary as expected, he should cruise to victory.

13

House District 13 – 3 members

Incumbents: Guy Guzzone (D), Shane Pendergrass (D), Frank S. Turner (D) – Guzzone is running for Senate
Filed Challengers: Fred Eiland (D), Danny Eaton (R), Vanessa Atterbeary (D), Nayab Siddiqui (D), Jimmy Williams (R), Chris Yates (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Guy Guzzone (D) 21.9%, Shane Pendergrass (D) 20.9%, Frank S. Turner (D) 20.1%
2006: Guy Guzzone (D) 22.3%, Shane Pendergrass (D) 22.1%, Frank S. Turner (D) 20.3%

Del. Shane Pendergrass (D)

Del. Shane Pendergrass (D)

Del. Frank Turner (D)

Del. Frank Turner (D)

The question here is who will be elected to Guzzone’s empty seat in the House. School board member Janet Siddiqui seemed to be an early front-runner, being welcomed to “Team 13” by Guzzone, Pendergrass, and Turner. However, two days after her husband Nayab entered the race, Janet withdrew, proving there are no simple handoffs in politics. Republican challengers should not be a significant factor in this heavily Democratic district based in Columbia.

Campaign Finances as of the April 15 deadline:

  1. Shane Pendergrass (D-inc) raised $25,879, cash on hand $111,718
  2. Frank S. Turner (D-inc) raised $22,238, cash on hand $56,246
  3. Janet Siddiqui (D) raised $14,190, cash on hand $45,234
  4. Vanessa Atterbeary (D) raised $14,951, cash on hand $14,899
  5. Danny Eaton (R) raised $5,143, cash on hand $2,597
  6. Jimmy Williams (R) raised $325, cash on hand $325
  7. Fred Eiland (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  8. Chris Yates (R) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  9. Nayab Siddiqui (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)