Predicting the 2012 Elections

Updated July 5, 2012   Elections

SENATE:
Democratic Party – 49
Republican Party – 49
Independents – 2
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Democratic Party – 197
Republican Party – 235

For maps and explanations, click the “Read more” button.

Using dozens of state-by-state poll results, we have assembled an Electoral College map to estimate the result if the elections were held today.

First, here is the map for the presidential election. We take the average of all recent polls for each state. If the average is within two percentage points of zero, this first map counts the state in gray, or “Undecided.” For example, Florida currently leans toward President Obama by 1.8, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district leans toward Mitt Romney by 1.

Click the image to see it full size.

We have also made a second map, showing what would happen if the election were held today. Obviously, even if Obama carries Florida by less than 2%, he would still win the state. Click the map to enlarge.

 

Next, we took the polls for U.S. Senators up for re-election, and again took their average to make this prediction of changes to the next Senate.

Dark Blue – Democratic GAIN
Light Blue – Democratic HOLD
Dark Red – Republican GAIN
Light Red – Republican HOLD
Dark Green – Independent GAIN
Light Green – Independent HOLD
Purple – Tossup (-2<x<2)

Here is the breakdown of gains only:

Democratic:

  • Connecticut – gain from Independent

Republican:

  • Missouri – gain from Democratic
  • Montana – gain from Democratic
  • Nebraska – gain from Democratic
  • Wisconsin – gain from Democratic

Independent:

  • Maine – gain from Republican

If we were to split the two tossup states (Indiana to the GOP and Massachusetts to the Democrats), we would get the following breakdown of the Senate in 2012:

Democratic Party – 49
Republican Party – 49
Independents – 2

Finally, here is a list of the House seats we expect to change sides:
That would make the new makeup of the House:

Democratic Party – 197 (+7)
Republican Party – 235 (-7)

In conclusion, the results are a mixed bag for progressives. Democrats tend to be more favorable to progress than Republicans, but President Obama has proven that he is a force for change. Obama looks like he will win re-election comfortably, with or without Florida. Democrats face several losses in the Midwest, but gains in the Northeast, combined with the fact that at least one if not both independent Senators will caucus with them, keep them from losing control of the Senate. Finally, redistricting following the 2010 Census has shuffled the balance of power in many Congressional seats. Democrats will come out with a net gain, but will fall short of the 25 seats they need to regain control of the House.