Predicting the 2012 Elections



For maps and explanations, click the “Read more” button.
Using dozens of state-by-state poll results, we have assembled an Electoral College map to estimate the result if the elections were held today.
First, here is the map for the presidential election. We take the average of all recent polls for each state. If the average is within two percentage points of zero, this first map counts the state in gray, or “Undecided.” For example, Florida currently leans toward President Obama by 1.8, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district leans toward Mitt Romney by 1.
Click the image to see it full size.
We have also made a second map, showing what would happen if the election were held today. Obviously, even if Obama carries Florida by less than 2%, he would still win the state. Click the map to enlarge.
Next, we took the polls for U.S. Senators up for re-election, and again took their average to make this prediction of changes to the next Senate.
Dark Blue – Democratic GAIN
Light Blue – Democratic HOLD
Dark Red – Republican GAIN
Light Red – Republican HOLD
Dark Green – Independent GAIN
Light Green – Independent HOLD
Purple – Tossup (-2<x<2)
Here is the breakdown of gains only:
Democratic:
- Connecticut – gain from Independent
Republican:
- Missouri – gain from Democratic
- Montana – gain from Democratic
- Nebraska – gain from Democratic
- Wisconsin – gain from Democratic
Independent:
- Maine – gain from Republican
If we were to split the two tossup states (Indiana to the GOP and Massachusetts to the Democrats), we would get the following breakdown of the Senate in 2012:
