Election Watch: 8/5

We have another update to our election predictions from earlier this month, using the latest poll data. As we draw nearer to Election Day, things are certainly beginning to get exciting.

Democratic Party – 49
Republican Party – 49
Independents – 2 (ME, VT)
Democratic Party – 197
Republican Party – 235

Changes since the last prediction:


  1. Missouri: Likely R (-5.0) to Lean R (-4.7)
  2. Ohio: Likely D (6.2) to Lean D (4.4)


  1. Connecticut: Lean D (3.0) to Likely D (5.5)
  2. Ohio: Strong D (10.25) to Likely D (8.8)
  3. Wisconsin: Likely R (-7.0) to Toss-up (-0.7)

Click to enlarge.

The big story this week is the huge turnaround in Wisconsin, as the Republican primary was shaken up and now itself can be considered a three-way toss-up. The pollster Rasmussen, which has a reputation for a Republican skew, has shown the Democratic candidate ahead of all three potential Republicans. While this could and probably will change in the next few weeks as the primary takes shape, it indicates that this race is by no means decided.

In other news, the independent pollster Nielson Brothers have provided us with some data for South Dakota. President Obama only trails by six points, while the Democrat running for the state’s lone House seat only trails by one.

Speaking of the House, two new polls have been released for North Carolina’s 7th district (NC-07). We listed it as a likely GOP pickup, but both polls (one Democrat and one Republican) suggest that the incumbent Democrat could hold on. In fact, the average of the polls came out to 11.5, causing the seat to be listed as a “Strong D Hold.” For the Republican side, a poll was released for NY-01 suggesting the Republican challenger could take the seat with a 4-point lead. Pending further polling, we will list the seat as a “Lean R Gain.” Thus, both parties in the House have no net gain after this week of polling, so we still project 235 Republicans and 197 Democrats.

This map shows the strength of the Senate candidates in each state using the latest poll data.

Strength indicator: