Election Watch: 7/28

We have updated our election predictions from earlier this month, using the latest poll data.

Democratic Party – 49
Republican Party – 49
Independents – 2 (ME, VT)
Democratic Party – 197
Republican Party – 235

Changes since the last prediction:


  1. Florida: Toss-up (1.8) to Lean D (2.4)
  2. Ohio: Lean D (3.4) to Likely D (6.2)
  3. Wisconsin: Lean D (3.4) to Likely D (6.2)


  1. Florida: Likely D (6.0) to Toss-up (0.6)
  2. Hawaii: Likely D (9.0) to Strong D (14.0)
  3. Nevada: Likely R (-6.5) to Lean R (-4.6)
  4. New Jersey: Likely D (9.5) to Strong D (10.0)
  5. Virginia: Lean D (2.5) to Toss-up (1.5)

Clearly, the biggest news is a general trend in swing states toward the President, despite national polls being tied. The best way this can be explained is that the anti-Obama ads have the most effect on people who were voting Republican anyway, or who just live in Republican states such as Texas (as opposed to swing states).

There is bad news for Democrats as well. In the Senate, two seats rated for the Democrats have now moved into the “toss-up” category. The biggest surprise is in Florida, where Connie Mack’s campaign has picked up steam and there are now two polls showing him in the lead.

This map shows the strength of the Senate candidates in each state using the latest poll data.

Click to enlarge.

Strength indicator:Finally, here is our updated Senate map: