Election Projection 2014: District 30

Senate District 30

Incumbent: John Astle (D)
Filed Challengers: Don Quinn (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: John Astle (D) 51.1%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 48.8%
2006: John Astle (D) 52.9%, Herb McMillan (R) 47.0%

Old District 30

Old District 30

New District 30

New District 30

District 30 has seen a major change. It gives up Arnold, Cape St. Clair, and its portion of Severna Park to the 33rd, and picks up south county (most of the former 33B). Senator Barbara Mikulski won the precincts of the new 30 with over 53% of the vote in 2010. While these elections will continue to be close, Democrats retain the edge.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. John Astle (D-inc) raised $136,391, cash on hand $198,263
  2. Don Quinn (R) raised $3,270, cash on hand $891

 

House District 30A – 2 members

Incumbents: Michael Busch (D), Ron George (R), Herb McMillan (R) – George was redistricted into the 33rd and made an unsuccessful run for Governor
Filed Challengers: Chuck Ferrar (D), Genevieve Lindner (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

Past Results:
2010: Ron George (R) 19.2%, Michael Busch (D) 18.0%, Herb McMillan (R) 16.9%, Virginia Clagett (D) 15.9%, Seth Howard (R) 15.1%, Judd Legum (D) 14.8%
2006: Michael Busch (D) 17.1%, Virginia Clagett (D) 17.0%, Ron George (R) 16.6%, Barbara Samorajczyk (D) 16.5%, Andy Smarick (R) 15.6%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 15.5%

30a

District 30 has been split into a two-member 30A and a single-member 30B. The new 30A contains the city of Annapolis, south Arnold, and northern Edgewater. With the heavily-Republican areas in Arnold and Severna Park now drawn out of the district, these seats are now much safer for Democrats. Speaker of the House Mike Busch should win here, and former county councilman Chuck Ferrar won the other Democratic nomination. Republican incumbent Herb McMillan will run alongside the unknown Genevieve Lindner.

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 filing deadline:

  1. Michael Busch (D-inc) raised $350,750, cash on hand $345,289
  2. Herb McMillan (R-inc) raised $106,245, cash on hand $76,971
  3. Chuck Ferrar (D) raised $84,545, cash on hand $2,069
  4. Genevieve Lindner (R) raised $1,520, cash on hand $970

 

House District 30B – 1 member

Incumbent: Bob Costa (R) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Seth Howard (R), Mitchelle Stephenson (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold

30b

The new 30B is reminiscent of the old 33B: it consists of southern Anne Arundel County including Edgewater, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Harwood, and Lothian. Notably absent from the new district is Davidsonville, which remains in the new District 33. Although the conservative stronghold of Davidsonville is not in 30B, the southeastern towns around Deale have been trending Republican in recent years, and combined with the reliably conservative communities along the South River, should tilt this race in favor of a Republican. Democratic candidate Mitchelle Stephenson has run a spirited campaign, and is outraising her GOP opponent, Seth Howard.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Mitchelle Stephenson (D) raised $32,614, cash on hand $17,788
  2. Seth Howard (R) raised $19,495, cash on hand $15,226