Election Projection 2014: Baltimore County

BalCoMap

The partisan divisions of eastern vs. western Baltimore County could not have been more apparent during the 2010 Democratic primary for County Executive between the liberal Kevin Kamenetz and the more conservative Joseph Bartenfelder. The Republicans also picked up an eastern council seat, making the chamber 5-2 Democratic. The county as a whole is trending more Democratic, with much of the growth being in west county between I-795 and Route 40.

Past Results:

Presidential:
2012: Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 57.3%, Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan (R) 40.3%
2008: Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 56.2%, John McCain/Sarah Palin (R) 41.7%

Gubernatorial:
2010: Martin O’Malley/Anthony Brown (D) 49.2%, Robert Ehrlich/Mary Kane (R) 48.7%
2006: Robert Ehrlich/Kristin Cox (R) 50.9%, Martin O’Malley/Anthony Brown (D) 47.9%

County Executive

Incumbent: Kevin Kamenetz (D)
Filed Challengers: George H. Harman (R), Tony Solesky (I)
Projection: Safe D Hold

County Executive Kevin Kamenetz (D)

County Executive Kevin Kamenetz (D)

With a strong incumbent in the race, and no Republicans with county name recognition, Kevin Kamenetz is strongly favored to win a second term.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Kevin Kamenetz (D-inc) raised $893,992, cash on hand $1,025,807
  2. George Harman (R) raised $3,060, cash on hand $2,996
  3. Tony Solesky (I) raised $1,000, cash on hand $1,000

 

Click “read more” for an analysis of every council seat.

District 1

Incumbent: Tom Quirk (D)
Filed Challengers: Albert Nalley (R)
Projection: Likely D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Tom Quirk (D) 55.5%, Steve Whisler (R) 44.2%
2006: Samuel Moxley (D) 64.4%, George Kapusinski (R) 35.5%

District 1

District 1

District 1 stretches from Arbutus to Catonsville in the southwestern corner of the county. While Tom Quirk underperformed his predecessor by nine points, the district is still reliably Democratic. Quirk should expect some bounce-back in 2014, as the Republican wave of 2010 created a hostile environment in this district.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Tom Quirk (D-inc) raised $76,155, cash on hand $124,849
  2. Albert Nalley (R) raised $2,880, cash on hand $10

 

District 2

Incumbent: Vicki Almond (D)
Filed Challengers: Rudy Stoler (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Vicki Almond (D) 59.4%, Jon Herbst (R) 40.4%
2006: Kevin Kamenetz (D) 69.8%, Lisa Marquardt (R) 30.1%

District 2

District 2

In an odd Democratic primary, Vicki Almond faced her Republican opponent from 2010, Jon Herbst, who had switched parties and earned the endorsements of Kamenetz and State Senator Bobby Zirkin. Despite this, Almond smashed Herbst 75.5-24.5%, and will cruise to victory in this heavily Democratic district.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Vicki Almond (D-inc) raised $190,958, cash on hand $65,980
  2. Rudy Stoler (R) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

District 3

Incumbent: Todd Huff (R) – lost primary
Filed Challengers: Wade Kach (R), Laurie Taylor-Mitchell (D)
Projection: Likely R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Todd Huff (R) 64.3%, Ben Sutley (D) 35.5%
2006: T. Bryan McIntire (R) unopposed

District 3

District 3

In 2010, Todd Huff unseated the incumbent councilman Bryan McIntire. Huff was largely seen as the more conservative candidate. Four years later, Huff will faced Delegate Wade Kach, who has compiled a moderate voting record in the House. In fact, Kach was one of only two House Republicans to vote in favor of marriage equality in 2012.

In the end, Kach defeated Huff decisively, taking 65.5% of the vote to Huff’s 34.5%. Kach will face Democrat Laurie Taylor-Mitchell. Despite Taylor-Mitchell’s highly successful fundraising efforts, Kach has higher name recognition in a district that leans heavily conservative.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Laurie Taylor-Mitchell (D) raised $101,429, cash on hand $77,523
  2. Wade Kach (R) raised $45,180, cash on hand $28,183

District 4

Incumbent: Kenneth N. Oliver (D) – lost primary
Filed Challengers: Julian Earl Jones (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Kenneth N. Oliver (D) 88.0%, Julian Earl Jones (D) 11.2%
2006: Kenneth N. Oliver (D) unopposed

District 4

District 4

Incumbent Kenneth Oliver lost the primary to Julian Jones, who will win the most heavily Democratic council district in Baltimore County without Republican opposition.

 

District 5

Incumbent: David Marks (R)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: David Marks (R) 52.9%, Mike Ertel (D) 47.0%
2006: Vince Gardina (D) 54.8%, Wayne Skinner (R) 45.1%

District 5

District 5

David Marks stunned Democrats in 2010 by winning in a historically blue district. He benefited from a moderate image, political shifts, and an anti-Democratic wave in 2010. The bigger surprise this year is that no Democrats filed to oppose Marks, and he will run unopposed. His district was made slightly more favorable to Republicans, as the council shored up incumbents Marks and Cathy Bevins from District 6. Still, 2014 is not shaping up to be nearly as hostile to Democrats as 2010, and a challenger to Marks may have picked up significant levels of support.

 

District 6

Incumbent: Cathy Bevins (D)
Filed Challengers: Jason Samios-Uy (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Cathy Bevins (D) 50.6%, Ryan Nawrocki (R) 49.2%
2006: Joe Bartenfelder (D) 66.5%, Tim Knepp (R) 33.4%

District 6

District 6

Cathy Bevins looks to bounce back from her less-than-two-point win over Republican Ryan Nawrocki in 2010. This year, the attitude is less pro-Republican, and the redistricting process gave Bevins some favorable precincts from the 5th and 7th districts.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Cathy Bevins (D-inc) raised $116,655, cash on hand $103,813
  2. Jason Samios-Uy (R) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

District 7

Incumbent: John “Johnny O” Olszewski, Sr. (D) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Joseph DiCara (D), Todd Crandell (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: John Olszewski, Sr. (D) unopposed
2006: John Olszewski, Sr. (D) 68.8%, Ray Krul (R) 31.0%

District 7

District 7

The Essex/Dundalk district has become less friendly to Democrats at the federal level, but is still reliably blue at the local level. It is also possible that the Republican trend of this area has begun to reverse in the past few years, as low home prices and property taxes have attracted City residents to move to this area. Dundalk had a net gain of nearly 1,300 residents in the last decade, reversing a 30-year trend of population losses. Barack Obama won only 44% of District 7 voters in 2008, but this number increased to 48% in 2012.

Todd Crandell, who ran for this seat in 2010 as a Democrat, has switched to the Republican Party and will face the Democratic primary victor in November. Essex community leader Joseph DiCara has taken the opposite route, switching from Republican to Democrat for the race.

There are no clear front-runners in this race, easily the most competitive in the county. This race may come down to Essex, which is currently considered a Republican town but is also Joe DiCara’s base of support. If DiCara can win Essex and Dundalk, he should win the district. Crandell will be looking at Edgemere and Sparrows Point for crossover votes, as well as shoring up support in Essex.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Joseph DiCara (D) raised $39,085, cash on hand $17,720
  2. Todd Crandell (R) raised $23,005, cash on hand $3,115