Category Archives: Howard

Election Projection 2014: District 12

Senate District 12

Incumbent: Edward Kasemeyer (D)
Filed Challengers: Jesse Pippy (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Edward Kasemeyer (D) 58.7%, Rick Martel (R) 41.3%
2006: Edward Kasemeyer (D) 62.3%, Rick Martel (R) 37.6%

The 12th District changes little, remaining anchored in southwest Baltimore County and including a strip of central Columbia in Howard County. The main difference is that the districts 12A and 12B have been combined into a single three-member district. Senator Kasemeyer has filed for re-election and will likely win again.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Edward Kasemeyer (D-inc) raised $74,982, cash on hand $114,798
  2. Jesse Pippy (R) raised $23,668, cash on hand $16,351

 

12

House District 12 – 3 members

Incumbents: James E. Malone (D), Steven DeBoy (D), Elizabeth Bobo (D) – all retiring: Malone, DeBoy, Bobo
Filed Challengers: Eric Ebersole (D), Terri Hill (D), Clarence K. Lam (D), Gordon Bull (R), Joe Hooe (R), Rick Martel (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: James E. Malone (D) 28.3%, Steven DeBoy (D) 26.1%, Joe Hooe (R) 24.7%, Albert L. Nalley (R) 20.9%; Elizabeth Bobo (D) 71.6%, Robert Wheatley (R) 28.4%
2006: James E. Malone (D) 30.6%, Steven DeBoy (D) 28.1%, Joe Hooe (R) 22.5%, Albert L. Nalley (R) 18.8%; Elizabeth Bobo (D) 75.3%, Christopher J. Feldwick (R) 24.6%

This is a rare case where all three seats are open due to retirement. The precincts making up the new district gave Senator Mikulski 60.6% of the vote in 2010 (great candidate in a horrible year), so it should come as so surprise that a host of Democrats have filed for the seat: 10 to be exact. The winners were teacher Eric Ebersole and physicians Terri Hill and Clarence Lam.

There were only three Republicans who ran, making their primary choice very easy. The candidates are businessmen Gordon Bull of Arbutus and Joe Hooe of Lansdowne, and attorney Rick Martel of Catonsville.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Terri Hill (D) raised $105,966, cash on hand $6,481
  2. Clarence Lam (D) raised $91,319, cash on hand $15,000
  3. Eric Ebersole (D) raised $45,080, cash on hand $6,884
  4. Joe Hooe (R) raised $8,210, cash on hand $2,090
  5. Gordon Bull (R) raised $4,234, cash on hand $793
  6. Rick Martel (R) raised $1,825, cash on hand $900

Election Projection 2014: District 9

Senate District 9

Incumbent: Allan Kittleman (R) – will run for Howard County Executive in 2014
Filed Challengers: Ryan Frederic (D), Gail Bates (R)
Projection: Lean R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Allan Kittleman (R) 66.7%, Jim Adams (D) 33.2%
2006: Allan Kittleman (R) 62.2%, Rich Corkran (D) 37.8%

Sen. Allan Kittleman (R) will run for Howard County Executive

Sen. Allan Kittleman (R) will run for Howard County Executive

Popular incumbent Senator Kittleman is running for County Executive, leaving the Senate seat open. The new 9th traded away central Carroll County for northern Ellicott City, a move which will swing the district strongly in a blue direction. However, even with a general shift in Howard County toward Democrats, the 9th will likely stay in Republican hands, even if Kittleman’s successor does not possess his bipartisan appeal. Republican Delegate Gail Bates has announced her candidacy for the seat, and conventional wisdom has her starting off as the front-runner with strong advantages in party identification and name recognition. and fundraising. The only weakness she seems to have is her bank account; Bates has raised less than a quarter of the amount brought in by her Democratic opponent, businessman Ryan Frederic, who won a close primary over fellow business owner Dan Medinger which saw both candidates raise over $100,000 each.

Frederic is endorsed by several progressive groups, including the NARAL Pro-Choice Maryland PAC, Equality Maryland, and the League of Conservation Voters. Between his endorsements, his bank account, and the blue trend in Howard County, Frederic might just win this race.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ryan Frederic (D) raised $144,986, cash on hand $83,968
  2. Gail Bates (R) raised $30,618, cash on hand $50,337

 

9a

House District 9A – 2 members

Incumbents: Gail Bates (R), Warren E. Miller (R) – Bates will run for State Senate
Filed Challengers: Trent Kittleman (R), Walter E. Carson (D), James Ward Morrow (D)
Projection: Likely R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Gail Bates (R) 30.6%, Warren E. Miller (R) 28.0%, Maryann Maher (D) 21.5%, Jonathan Weinstein (D) 19.9%
2006: Gail Bates (R) 39.6%, Warren E. Miller (R) 32.1%, David Leonard Osmundson (D) 28.0%

With Delegate Miller running for re-election, and Bates running for Senate, there is effectively one seat in play in this two-member Republican district in northern Howard and southern Carroll County. Trent Kittleman served several roles in the state Department of Transportation under Ehrlich, and is the mother of Allan. Frank Mirabile was the 2010 Republican nominee for Congress in the 7th district, running against Rep. Elijah Cummings.

Del. Warren Miller (R)

Del. Warren Miller (R)

The precincts in this district only gave 41% of the vote to Sen. Barbara Mikulski in 2010, so it is likely to remain in Republican hands.

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 filing deadline:

  1. Warren Miller (R-inc) raised $33,140, cash on hand $21,460
  2. Trent Kittleman (R) raised $12,431, cash on hand $1,498
  3. James Ward Morrow (D) raised $4,075, cash on hand $7,357
  4. Walter Carson (D) raised $200, cash on hand $200

9b

House District 9B – 1 member

Incumbent: Susan Krebs (R) – now in District 5
Filed Challengers: Carol Loveless (R), Tom Coale (D), Rich Corkran (D), Bob Flanagan (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

District 9B is in a completely different place than before redistricting. Formerly in south Carroll County, this district is now in central Howard County, including Ellicott City and parts of Columbia and Elkridge. The precincts that make up the new district gave 56% of the vote to Senator Mikulski in 2010, so this should be an easy Democratic pickup.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Tom Coale (D) raised $68,443, cash on hand $26,182
  2. Bob Flanagan (R) raised $19,706, cash on hand $4,904

Election Projection 2014: District 13

Senate District 13

Incumbent: James N. Robey (D) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Del. Guy Guzzone (D), Jody Venkatesan (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: James N. Robey (D) 63.0%, Kyle Lorton (R) 36.8%
2006: James N. Robey (D) 56.1%, Sandra B. Schrader (R) 43.8%

Del. Guy Guzzone (D)

Del. Guy Guzzone (D)

For now, this seems like a pretty typical handoff: an old senator retires, and one of the delegates steps up to take the spot. This district has been trending Democratic for years, and has only been in Democratic hands since 2006 when James Robey defeated incumbent Senator Sandra Schrader. Senator Robey then proceeded to take 63% of the vote in a year where Republicans were overperforming across the board. Senator Mikulski took 66% of the vote in the precincts that make up District 13, so if Guzzone wins the primary as expected, he should cruise to victory.

13

House District 13 – 3 members

Incumbents: Guy Guzzone (D), Shane Pendergrass (D), Frank S. Turner (D) – Guzzone is running for Senate
Filed Challengers: Fred Eiland (D), Danny Eaton (R), Vanessa Atterbeary (D), Nayab Siddiqui (D), Jimmy Williams (R), Chris Yates (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Guy Guzzone (D) 21.9%, Shane Pendergrass (D) 20.9%, Frank S. Turner (D) 20.1%
2006: Guy Guzzone (D) 22.3%, Shane Pendergrass (D) 22.1%, Frank S. Turner (D) 20.3%

Del. Shane Pendergrass (D)

Del. Shane Pendergrass (D)

Del. Frank Turner (D)

Del. Frank Turner (D)

The question here is who will be elected to Guzzone’s empty seat in the House. School board member Janet Siddiqui seemed to be an early front-runner, being welcomed to “Team 13” by Guzzone, Pendergrass, and Turner. However, two days after her husband Nayab entered the race, Janet withdrew, proving there are no simple handoffs in politics. Republican challengers should not be a significant factor in this heavily Democratic district based in Columbia.

Campaign Finances as of the April 15 deadline:

  1. Shane Pendergrass (D-inc) raised $25,879, cash on hand $111,718
  2. Frank S. Turner (D-inc) raised $22,238, cash on hand $56,246
  3. Janet Siddiqui (D) raised $14,190, cash on hand $45,234
  4. Vanessa Atterbeary (D) raised $14,951, cash on hand $14,899
  5. Danny Eaton (R) raised $5,143, cash on hand $2,597
  6. Jimmy Williams (R) raised $325, cash on hand $325
  7. Fred Eiland (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  8. Chris Yates (R) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  9. Nayab Siddiqui (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)