Category Archives: Harford

Election Projection 2014: District 35

Senate District 35

Incumbent: Barry Glassman (R) – will run for Harford County Executive
Filed Challengers: Bridget Kelly (D), Wayne Norman (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold (Norman)

Past Results:
2010: Barry Glassman (R) unopposed
2006: J. Robert Hooper (R) 68.0%, Stan Kollar (D) 31.9%

35b

The 35th District loses Bel Air in redistricting and picks up eastern Cecil County. This is a strongly Republican district, and Delegate Wayne Norman looks to be the front-runner.

Del. Wayne Norman (R) is the early favorite for Senator

Del. Wayne Norman (R) is the early favorite for Senator

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Wayne Norman (R) raised $49,872, cash on hand $24,600
  2. Bridget Kelly (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

House District 35A – 1 member

Incumbent: David Rudolph (D)
Filed Challengers: Kevin Hornberger (R)
Projection: Toss-up

Past Results:
2010: David Rudolph (D) 48.7%, Theodore A. Patterson (R) 46.0%, Michael Dawson (C) 5.3%
2006: David Rudolph (D) 55.0%, Ewing McDowell (R) 44.9%

35a

The new 35A is essentially the old 34B, located in Cecil county. In 2010, Del. Rudolph survived a scare as the combined votes of the Republican and Constitution Party candidates exceeded his own. This district has been trending to the right for a while now, and Rudolph has been able to survive by branding himself a conservative Democrat in tune with the needs of the community. It is unclear if 2010 was a low point for Rudolph because of the national Republican wave, or if it is part of the trend in Cecil County. While the district lines were undoubtedly adjusted to support Rudolph as much as possible, he may not survive another election.

The old District 34B contained much more of western Cecil county than the new 35A. Del. Rudolph took 49% of the vote in this district.

The old District 34B contained much more of western Cecil County than the new 35A. Del. Rudolph took 49% of the vote in this district.

Del. David D. Rudolph (D)

Del. David D. Rudolph (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. David Rudolph (D-inc) raised $32,775, cash on hand $58,924
  2. Kevin Hornberger (R) raised $2,850, cash on hand $436

House District 35B – 2 members

Incumbents: Wayne Norman (R), Donna Stifler (R) – Norman is running for Senate, Stifler is retiring due to health concerns
Filed Challengers: Jeffrey Elliott (D), Daniel Lamey (D), Andrew Cassilly (R), Teresa Reilly (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Donna Stifler (R) 38.0%, Wayne Norman (R) 37.6%, John W. Jones (D) 13.4%, Joseph J. Gutierrez (D) 10.8%
2006: Barry Glassman (R) 40.1%, Donna Stifler (R) 34.8%, Craig DeRan (D) 25.0%

35b

This district is the old 35A, based in rural Harford and Cecil counties. Republicans Andrew Cassilly and Teresa Reilly will win easily in November, bringing two fresh faces to Annapolis.

Election Projection 2014: District 34

Senate District 34

Incumbent: Nancy Jacobs (R) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Mary-Dulany James (D), Bob Cassilly (R)
Projection: Lean D+1

Past Results:
2010: Nancy Jacobs (R) 55.9%, Art Helton (D) 43.9%
2006: Nancy Jacobs (R) 57.3%, William B. Kilby (D) 42.7%

34a

District 34 in Harford County consists of a two-member district (34A) including Aberdeen, Edgewood, and Havre de Grace, and a single-member district (34B) in Bel Air. Generally, the area south and east of Interstate 95 votes Democratic while the rest of the county votes Republican. Democratic Delegate Mary-Dulany James has filed for the seat, defeating former state senator and perennial candidate Art Helton in the primary. With incumbent Sen. Nancy Jacobs retiring, the Republican field is clear for former county councilman Bob Cassilly.

This race will come down to Democratic performance in 34A. If they put up enough numbers there to outweigh heavily-Republican Bel Air, this will be a Democratic pickup. If not, the seat will remain in Republican hands.

Mary-Dulany James is well known in Harford County, having represented 34A since 1999. Her popularity will likely carry her and the Democrats to a pickup here.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Mary-Dulany James (D) raised $268,356, cash on hand $16,788
  2. Bob Cassilly (R) raised $32,426, cash on hand $18,326

House District 34A – 2 members

Incumbents: Mary-Dulany James (D), Glen Glass (R) – James is running for State Senate
Filed Challengers:Mary Ann Lisanti (D), Marla Posey-Moss (D), Mike Blizzard (R)
Projection: Lean D+1

Past Results:
2010: Mary-Dulany James (D) 29.2%, Glen Glass (R) 25.3%, Patrick McGrady (R) 22.9%, Marla Posey-Moss (D) 22.5%
2006: Mary-Dulany James (D) 31.7%, B. Daniel Riley (D) 27.3%, Glen Glass (R) 21.0%, Sheryl Davis Kohl (R) 19.9%

Del. Glen Glass (R) is running for re-election

Del. Glen Glass (R) is running for re-election

This district ended up with a rare party split in 2010, sending one Democrat (Mary-Dulany James) and one Republican (Glen Glass) to Annapolis. With James running for Senate, there will be one open seat. Democrats hope to sweep this blue district, and 2010 candidate Marla Posey-Moss will join county councilwoman Mary Ann Lisanti in an effort to do just that. Republicans hope to at least hang on to the seat held by Glass, and possibly pick up the other one. Glass will be joined on the Republican ticket by Mike Blizzard.

The most likely scenario is that a strong Democratic ticket will be enough to drop Glass to third place and secure both these seats. A weaker ticket might allow Glass to take second place again. While Democratic candidate Marla Posey-Moss has posted sluggish fundraising numbers, Glass’s fundraising has not been any better.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Mary Ann Lisanti (D) raised $28,561, cash on hand $2,404
  2. Glen Glass (R-inc) raised $6,875, cash on hand $2,229
  3. Mike Blizzard (R) raised $5,357, cash on hand -$450
  4. Marla Posey-Moss (D) raised $4,475, cash on hand $1,763

House District 34B – 1 member

Incumbent: Susan McComas (R)
Filed Challengers: Cassandra R. Beverley (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Susan McComas (R) 72.3%, John Janowich (D) 27.6%
2006: Susan McComas (R) 62.5%, David Carey (D) 37.4%

This district was formerly numbered 35B, but that’s the only thing changing here this year. Republican incumbent Del. Susan McComas should win easily in this conservative Bel Air district, even while being outraised by Democrat Cassandra Beverley.

Del Susan McComas (R)

Del Susan McComas (R)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Cassandra Beverley (D) raised $15,745, cash on hand $3,853
  2. Susan McComas (R-inc) raised $11,194, cash on hand $37,405

Election Projection 2014: District 7

Senate District 7

Incumbent: J.B. Jennings (R)
Filed Challengers: Kim Letke (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: J.B. Jennings (R) 65.9%, Rebecca Weir Nelson (D) 33.9%
2006: Andy Harris (R) 56.6%, Patricia A. Foerster (D) 43.4%

This district now comprises rural eastern Baltimore County, rural western Harford County, and Middle River. This will remain in Republican hands.

7

House District 7 – 3 members

Incumbents: Pat McDonough (R), Rick Impallaria (R), Kathy Szeliga (R)
Filed Challengers: Norman Gifford (D), Bob Bowie (D), Pete Definbaugh (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Pat McDonough (R) 23.1%, Rick Impallaria (R) 21.6%, Kathy Szeliga (R) 20.9%, Jeff Beard (D) 12.6%, Kristina A. Sargent (D) 11.5%, James Ward Morrow (D) 10.2%
2006: Pat McDonough (R) 20.3%, Rick Impallaria (R) 18.7%, J.B. Jennings (R) 18.6%, Linda Hart (D) 15.0%, Jack Sturgill (D) 13.5%, Rebecca L. Nelson (D) 11.8%

Again, in a heavily Republican district that has been made even more Republican with redistricting, this won’t be much of a contest. Democrats have managed to put up a full slate of candidates, but none of them are very likely to come in the top three.