Category Archives: Frederick

Election Projection 2014: District 3

Senate District 3

Incumbent: Ronald N. Young (D)
Filed Challengers: Corey Stottlemyer (R)
Projection: Likely D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ronald N. Young (D) 51.1%, Alex X. Mooney (R) 48.7%
2006: Alex X. Mooney (R) 51.9%, Candy O. Greenway (D) 47.8%

This race from 2010 gave the state GOP a collective facepalm – the Republican party chairman, Alex Mooney, had lost his own seat in a steadily Republican district in a great Republican year. What went wrong for Mooney? Some argue that he spent more time campaigning for other Republicans than he did in his own district. The simpler answer is that the demographics of the 3rd district simply caught up with him. The southern portion of the county has become more populated by Washington commuters who tend to vote Democratic, and the city of Frederick itself has also moved further into blue territory. In 2000, George Bush beat Al Gore by 19 points. In 2012, Mitt Romney edged Barack Obama by only 3.

Sen. Ron Young (D)

Sen. Ron Young (D)

Now that Mooney has moved to West Virginia and launched a campaign for Congress, Ronald Young’s chances of holding on to this seat are even greater. His opponent in November will be Republican Corey Stottlemyer.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Ron Young (D-inc) raised $35,626, cash on hand $58,658
  2. Corey Stottlemyer (R) raised $7,215, cash on hand $2,027

 

3

House District 3A – 2 members

Incumbents: Galen R. Clagett (D), Patrick Hogan (R) – Clagett will retire, Hogan will not run either
Filed Challengers: Carol Krimm (D),  Karen Lewis Young (D), Paul Smith (R), Victoria Wilkins (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

Past Results:
2010: Galen R. Clagett (D) 27.5%, Patrick Hogan (R) 26.0%, Scott L. Rolle (R) 23.3%, Candy O. Greenway (D) 23.1%
2006: Sue Hecht (D) 28.7%, Galen R. Clagett (D) 25.7%, Patrick Hogan (R) 25.1%, Linda Naylor (R) 20.4%

The city of Frederick has been trending Democratic. From 1995-2007, the two seats were split: one Democrat, one Republican. Democrats took both seats in the 2006 election, but the Republicans took one back in the wave of 2010 with Patrick Hogan, who had previously represented the district from 2003-07. Given the trend, and the fact that Hogan isn’t seeking re-election, the Democrats have a strong chance of sweeping the district again in one of the few truly competitive districts in the state.

Karen Lewis Young has been at the front of the pack from the start. She has a record of public service, having previously served as a Frederick city alderman, and unsuccessfully ran for Mayor in 2013. She also happens to be the wife of Senator Ron Young, who has contributed to her campaign. The other Democrat in the race, Carol Krimm, also served as a Frederick alderman from 2009-2013.

Republican C. Paul Smith has kept up with the Democratic candidates in fundraising. He has served as a Frederick County Commissioner since 2011, winning the second-most votes, behind only Blaine Young. His name recognition and voting record make him a top-tier candidate along with Karen Young and Carol Krimm, but he will be facing a stiff battle in this light-blue district.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Karen Lewis Young (D) raised $20,035, cash on hand $3,901
  2. Paul Smith (R) raised $15,530, cash on hand $6,023
  3. Carol L. Krimm (D) raised $11,665, cash on hand $4,241
  4. Victoria Wilkins (R) raised $4,971, cash on hand $3,592

House District 3B – 1 member

Incumbent: Michael Hough (R) – now in District 4
Filed Challengers: Bill Folden (R), Stephen Slater (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Michael Hough (R) 57.4%, Paul Gilligan (D) 42.4%
2006: Richard B. Weldon (R) 61.4%, Paul Gilligan (D) 38.6%
2002: Richard B. Weldon (R) 62.4%, Lisa Baugher (D) 37.4%

From 2002-2010, this district included just about everything south of Route 40. Starting in 2014, the district will be much more narrow, only about as wide as the Frederick city limits, extending to the Potomac River, due to the rapid population increase of the area south of Frederick. Sen. Barbara Mikulski only lost this district by 1.5% in 2010, which indicates a potential pickup opportunity for Democrats with a strong candidate. The Republican share of the vote has been continuously falling since 2002 and Democrat Stephen Slater has raised a lot of money, but this race is still Bill Folden’s to lose.

 

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Stephen Slater (D) raised $26,972, cash on hand $18,789
  2. Bill Folden (R) raised $6,797, cash on hand $565

Election Projection 2014: District 4

Senate District 4

Incumbent: David Brinkley (R) – defeated in the primary
Filed Challengers: Michael Hough (R), Dan Rupli (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: David R. Brinkley (R) 72.8%, Sara Lou Trescott (D) 27.1%
2006: David R. Brinkley (R) unopposed

Incumbent Sen. David Brinkley (R)

Incumbent Sen. David Brinkley (R)

This race got interesting when Delegate Michael Hough from District 3B was redrawn into District 4 and mounted a fierce challenge to Sen. Brinkley from the right. Hough’s campaign labeled Brinkley a “tax-and-spend” liberal and “O’Malley lite” in a press release. Hough’s superior fundraising and conservative grassroots support led to a commanding 68-32% victory, and Hough looks to carry the Tea Party banner into another Maryland Senate seat.

 

Del. Michael Hough (R) will challenge Sen. Brinkley in June

Del. Michael Hough (R) will challenge Sen. Brinkley in June

Hough’s opponent in November is Democrat Dan Rupli, who picked up a cross-party endorsement from County Commissioner David Gray (R). Some GOP voters who are turned off by Hough’s conservatism might defect to Rupli, but it likely won’t be enough in this dark-red district.

 

Campaign Finances as of the May 27 filing deadline:

  1. Michael Hough (R) raised $139,044, cash on hand $109,836
  2. Dan Rupli (D) raised $1,200, cash on hand $963

 

4

House District 4 – 3 members

Incumbents: Kelly Schulz (R), Kathy Afzali (R), Donald B. Elliott (R) – Elliott is now in District 5
Filed Challengers: Gene Stanton (D), David E. Vogt, III (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Kelly Schulz (R) 32.2%, Kathy Afzali (R) 31.7%, Ryan P. Trout (D) 18.4%, Bonita Riffle Curry (D) 13.3%; Donald B. Elliott (R) 74.9%, Timothy Schlaugh (D) 25.0%
2006: Paul S. Stull (R) 39.5%, Joseph R. Bartlett (R) 36.8%, Maggi Margaret Hays (D) 23.4%; Donald B. Elliott (R) 69.8%, Timothy Schlaugh (D) 30.1%

The fourth district used to be divided into a two-member 4A, based in northern Frederick County, and a one-member 4B, in Mount Airy and western Carroll County. Due to population increases, the new District 4 is a three-member district exclusively in Frederick County. Delegate Don Elliott, who represented 4B since 1987, finds himself in the new District 5. The result is an extra seat for Republicans, and David Vogt defeated two other contenders for the third seat.

Gene Stanton has also filed and will be the lone Democrat in the race. Schulz, Afzali, and Vogt will win easily.