Category Archives: National Elections

Trump Lead Narrows in Georgia

Donald Trump’s average lead in Georgia has dropped from 5.5 points in late July to 3.75 points after a pair of polls released on August 1 reveal a tightening race in the usually reliable red state. As a result, we’ve adjusted this race rating from Likely R to Lean R.

A poll conducted by SurveyUSA for local station WXIA-TV over the weekend of 7/29-7/31 showed Trump leading a four-way race by just 4 points:

Donald Trump (R) 46%
Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
Gary Johnson (L) 5%
Jill Stein (G) 2%

A one-day poll conducted by Landmark for WSB-TV on 7/31 actually showed Trump and Clinton tied.

Donald Trump (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Gary Johnson (L) 4%
Jill Stein (G) 1%

http://www.11alive.com/news/local/exclusive-poll-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-clinton-in-georgia/285416138

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/clinton-trump-deadlocked-in-latest-georgia-poll/415167092?ecmp=wsbtv_social_twitter_sfp

Election Watch: 6/1

If you had asked us four years ago who the Republican nominee would be in 2016, we wouldn’t have dreamed of Donald Trump. Yet, he’s the one Republican voters overwhelmingly chose to lead them. The Democratic race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders is still underway, and the winner of the California primary on June 4 will likely face Trump in November.

Although we like to focus on moving Maryland forward, the presidential race is an undeniably huge factor in whether this country will move forward or back. That’s why we like to take a weighted average of statewide polls, and present you with a map that projects what the electoral map would look like if the elections were held today.

In case you forgot, the numbers below (ex. 8.5) are the averages of all polls collected for each race. They represent how many points in each state the Democratic candidate is predicted to win by, on average. Negative numbers indicate how many points, on average, the Democrat is trailing the Republican in the race.

Click to enlarge

 

Initial ratings:

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Lean R (-2.0)
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D (12.0)
Colorado: Tossup
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Lean D (2.0)
Georgia: Tossup (-1.0)
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Indiana: Likely R (7.0)
Iowa: Tossup
Kansas: Likely R
Kentucky: Safe R
Louisiana: Safe R (-16.0)
Maine: Likely D
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Safe D
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Likely R
Montana: Safe R
Nebraska: Safe R
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Likely R (-8.0)
Nevada: Tossup
New Hampshire: Tossup (1.0)
New Jersey: Likely D (7.8)
New Mexico: Lean D
New York: Safe D (26.0)
North Carolina: Lean R (-4.0)
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Tossup (1.3)
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Lean D (4.5)
Pennsylvania: Tossup (1.0)
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Virginia: Lean D (2.0)
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R
Wisconsin: Safe D (12.0)
Wyoming: Safe R
District of Columbia: Safe D

Some recent national polls have Trump with a slight lead, but as Michael Cohen of the Boston Globe points out, Trump has gotten a surge in support since he effectively clinched the GOP nomination on May 3. Hillary (and still possibly Bernie) will receive a similar boost to their numbers after the Democratic Convention in late July.

Senate Watch: 9/24

Let’s switch gears a moment and look at the national Senate races. While 2014 looks to be a decent year for Democrats in Maryland, it will likely be a dismal year for the national party.

 

SENATE:
Democratic Party – 48 (-5)
Republican Party – 49 (+4)
Independents – 3 (+1)

 

Our predictions are made by compiling the latest national polls, including no more than two polls conducted for each party or candidate, and discarding outliers or result from pollsters with a record of inaccuracy. The average difference of the polls will lead to a positive (Democratic) or negative (Republican) result. A result within 2 points of zero indicates a Toss-up, within 5 points is Lean, within 10 points is Likely, and greater than or equal to 10 points is Safe. The result represents the average lead a candidate has in the polls.

INITIAL RATINGS

  1. Alaska: Toss-up (0.3)
  2. Arkansas: Toss-up (-1.2)
  3. Colorado: Toss-up (1.8)
  4. Delaware: Safe D (13.0)
  5. Georgia: Lean R (-2.3)
  6. Hawaii: Safe D (35.0)
  7. Idaho: Safe R (-34.0)
  8. Illinois: Toss-up (-1.9)
  9. Iowa: Toss-up (1.4)
  10. Kansas: Lean I (4.9)
  11. Kentucky: Likely R (-5.1)
  12. Louisiana: Toss-up (-1.0)
  13. Maine: Safe R (-28.0)
  14. Massachusetts: Safe D (22.0)
  15. Michigan: Likely D (5.5)
  16. Minnesota: Likely D (9.0)
  17. Mississippi: Safe R (-15.0)
  18. Montana: Safe R (-18.0)
  19. Nebraska: Safe R (-26.0)
  20. New Hampshire: Likely D (6.2)
  21. New Jersey: Safe D (15.0)
  22. New Mexico: Safe D (18.0)
  23. North Carolina: Toss-up (-0.6)
  24. Oklahoma-A: Safe R (-32.0)
  25. Oklahoma-B: Safe R (-31.5)
  26. Oregon: Safe D (11.0)
  27. Rhode Island: Safe D (20.0)
  28. South Carolina-A: Safe R (-13.0)
  29. South Carolina-B: Safe R (-21.0)
  30. South Dakota: Safe R (-10.0)
  31. Tennessee: Safe R (-15.0)
  32. Texas: Safe R (-21.0)
  33. Virginia: Safe D (15.3)
  34. West Virginia: Safe R (-19.0)
  35. Wyoming: Safe R (-40.5)

Here is the data on a map. DARK RED = R gain, LIGHT RED = R hold, DARK BLUE = D gain, LIGHT BLUE = D hold, DARK GREEN = I gain, LIGHT GREEN = I hold, PURPLE = Toss-up.

Click to enlarge.

The most surprising race this year is the Senate race in Kansas, where Republican Sen. Pat Roberts is facing a challenge by independent Greg Orman. The Democrat in the race dropped out, which greatly helps Orman’s chances of winning. Orman has stated that he will caucus with whichever party has the majority, which is likely to be the Republican Party. He may be joined by fellow independent Sen. Angus King from Maine, who has said he will switch caucuses if the Republicans retake the Senate.

The GOP appears to have locked down three gains this year in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Another seven states are in play. As Republicans only need a net gain of six seats to win control of the chamber, they are looking to gain only three seats from Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, and North Carolina. While Illinois is listed as a toss-up, a Republican gain here seems unlikely at this point.