Category Archives: Charles

Election Projection 2014: District 27

Senate District 27

Incumbent: Thomas V. Mike Miller (D)
Filed Challengers: Jesse Allen Peed (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold (Miller)

Past Results:
2010: Mike Miller (D) 74.9%, Vernon R. Hayes, Jr. (R) 25.0%
2006: Mike Miller (D) 70.4%, Ron Miller (R) 29.5%

Mike Miller is the President of the Senate, a position every bit as powerful as it sounds. District 27 is made up of most of Calvert County, as well as extreme southern Prince George’s County. In 2010, the PG portion made up 58% of the district’s electorate, and not surprisingly, is where Miller performs best. While Calvert County has a more conservative reputation than its western neighbor, Miller not only won the county in both years but also increased his share in his home county from 54% in 2006 to 56% in 2010.

There is no reason to expect his retirement in 2014, nor should be expect him to seek higher office. The new 27th is reconfigured slightly from its former boundaries: it relinquishes the Accokeek area in western PG County (now in District 26) and the area immediately south of Upper Marlboro (to District 23B), while picking up Hughesville in northern Charles County (from District 28). The move was probably due to Charles County’s explosive growth in the past decade.

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller

 

House District 27A – 1 member

Incumbents: James Proctor (D), Joseph Vallario (D) – Vallario was redrawn into District 23B
Filed Challengers: Joe Crawford (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Jim Proctor (D) 43.4%, Joe Vallario (D) 38.5%, Mike Hethmon (R) 9.3%, Antoinette Jarboe-Duley (R) 8.7%
2006: Jim Proctor (D) 40.3%, Joe Vallario (D) 38.0%, Kenneth S. Brown (R) 11.6%, Antoinette Jarboe-Duley (R) 10.1%

The first thing to note about 27A is that it has been split from a two-member district into two single-member districts. The second is that longtime (since 1975) Delegate Joe Vallario has been, possibly intentionally, drawn out of the district he is used to serving.

27A

The powerful duo of Jim Proctor and Joe Vallario, who have served together since 1991, is finally to be broken up. Proctor is Vice Chairman of the powerful Appropriations Committee, which determines how money is spent. The other delegate, Vallario, serves as Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, where he has control of the process of passing crime laws such as death penalty repeal and gun control. The Washington Post published an excellent article last year detailing the Del. Vallario’s power, as well as the criticisms that have inevitably dogged him after 20 years as chairman of a major House committee.

The new single-member 27A stretches from Accokeek to Eagle Harbor, and includes for the first time a slice of northern Charles County. Veteran Delegate Jim Proctor should have little trouble winning a new term.

Delegate Jim Proctor (D)

Delegate Jim Proctor (D)

 

House District 27B – 1 member

Incumbent: none – Mark Fisher (R) has moved to District 27C
Filed Challengers: Michael A. Jackson (D), Philip A. Parenti (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Mark N. Fisher (R) 52.6%, Sue Kullen (D) 47.4%
2006: Sue Kullen (D) 56.8%, David Hale (R) 43.1%

27B

This is a unique case in Maryland this year, where rather than drawing an incumbent into a different district, the state redrew the district in the entirely different direction. The new 27B contains the northern part of Prince George’s County that was formerly in 27A, as well as 27A’s share of Calvert County. It also includes a small part of the old 27B, the Owings area, where Delegate Fisher lived when he first ran in 2010.

Unlike the purple-hued former 27B, the new district is deep blue, largely owing to its pickups in PG county. Del. Fisher ended up moving his residence from Owings to Prince Frederick in the more conservative District 27C, leaving 27B a purely open Democratic seat. Former PG County Sheriff Michael A. Jackson handily won the Democratic primary, which all but assures him a win in November over Republican Phil Parenti.

Michael A. Jackson served as Sheriff of Prince George's County from 2002-10.

Michael A. Jackson (D) served as Sheriff of Prince George’s County from 2002-10.

 

House District 27C – 1 member

Incumbent: Mark Fisher (R)
Filed Challengers: Sue Kullen (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold

27C

This new district is very similar to the old 27B, but without the Owings area in the north, and adding an area south of Prince Frederick. Former Delegate Sue Kullen, who lost the 27B seat to Delegate Mark Fisher in 2010, is seeking to regain a seat in the House. In anything but another Republican wave year like 2010, Kullen should have the edge. As it was, she only lost her seat to Fisher by 800 votes.

Del. Mark N. Fisher (R)

Del. Mark N. Fisher (R)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Mark Fisher (R-inc) raised $96,178, cash on hand $61.320
  2. Sue Kullen (D) raised $75,828, cash on hand $38,077

Election Projection 2014: District 28

Senate District 28

Incumbent: Thomas “Mac” Middleton (D)
Filed Challengers: Josh Castle (R), Allan Donnelly (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold (Middleton)

Past Results:
2010: Thomas Middleton (D) 70.2%, Jay Bala (R) 29.7%
2006: Thomas Middleton (D) 65.3%, Jay Bala (R) 34.7%

Senator Mac Middleton (D)

Senator Mac Middleton (D)

Charles County seems to be the new destination for Washington commuters looking for a home. From 2000-2010, the population jumped up 22 percent, leading to the compression of the 28th district and the addition of 27B. District 28 has been trending Democratic, as evidenced by Middleton’s improvement by five points over the same GOP opponent in the good Republican year of 2010. Middleton faces no primary opposition and is likely to win by an even larger margin this year.

28

House District 28 – 3 members

Incumbents: Sally Y. Jameson (D), Peter Murphy (D), C.T. Wilson (D) – Murphy is running for County Commissioner President
Filed Challengers: John Coller (D), Candice Quinn Kelly (D), Edith J. Patterson (D), Jim Crawford (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold (Jameson, Wilson, Kelly)

Past Results:
2010: Sally Y. Jameson (D) 23.6%, Peter Murphy (D) 21.9%, C.T. Wilson (D) 19.9%, Kirk W. Bowie (R) 12.3%, Mike Phillips (R) 11.6%, Daniel D. Richards (R) 10.8%
2006: Sally Y. Jameson (D) 24.5%, Murray Levy (D) 23.9%, Peter Murphy (D) 21.6%, William Daniel Mayer (R) 16.3%, Jim Crawford (R) 13.6%

With Del. Murphy leaving the House, Democratic hopefuls piled on to try to win the open seat. At the close of filing, there are five Democrats and one Republican vying for the three seats. In this increasingly blue district, the most important question is which three Democrats will win the primary.

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 deadline:

  1. C.T. Wilson (D-inc) raised $43,585, cash on hand $14,135
  2. Sally Jameson (D-inc) raised $29,271, cash on hand $23,065
  3. Candice Quinn Kelly (D) raised $27,269, cash on hand $4,593
  4. John Coller (D) raised $18,490, cash on hand $4,398
  5. Edith J. Patterson (D) raised $12,675, cash on hand $5,279
  6. Jim Crawford (R) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)