Category Archives: Carroll

Election Projection 2014: District 9

Senate District 9

Incumbent: Allan Kittleman (R) – will run for Howard County Executive in 2014
Filed Challengers: Ryan Frederic (D), Gail Bates (R)
Projection: Lean R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Allan Kittleman (R) 66.7%, Jim Adams (D) 33.2%
2006: Allan Kittleman (R) 62.2%, Rich Corkran (D) 37.8%

Sen. Allan Kittleman (R) will run for Howard County Executive

Sen. Allan Kittleman (R) will run for Howard County Executive

Popular incumbent Senator Kittleman is running for County Executive, leaving the Senate seat open. The new 9th traded away central Carroll County for northern Ellicott City, a move which will swing the district strongly in a blue direction. However, even with a general shift in Howard County toward Democrats, the 9th will likely stay in Republican hands, even if Kittleman’s successor does not possess his bipartisan appeal. Republican Delegate Gail Bates has announced her candidacy for the seat, and conventional wisdom has her starting off as the front-runner with strong advantages in party identification and name recognition. and fundraising. The only weakness she seems to have is her bank account; Bates has raised less than a quarter of the amount brought in by her Democratic opponent, businessman Ryan Frederic, who won a close primary over fellow business owner Dan Medinger which saw both candidates raise over $100,000 each.

Frederic is endorsed by several progressive groups, including the NARAL Pro-Choice Maryland PAC, Equality Maryland, and the League of Conservation Voters. Between his endorsements, his bank account, and the blue trend in Howard County, Frederic might just win this race.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ryan Frederic (D) raised $144,986, cash on hand $83,968
  2. Gail Bates (R) raised $30,618, cash on hand $50,337

 

9a

House District 9A – 2 members

Incumbents: Gail Bates (R), Warren E. Miller (R) – Bates will run for State Senate
Filed Challengers: Trent Kittleman (R), Walter E. Carson (D), James Ward Morrow (D)
Projection: Likely R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Gail Bates (R) 30.6%, Warren E. Miller (R) 28.0%, Maryann Maher (D) 21.5%, Jonathan Weinstein (D) 19.9%
2006: Gail Bates (R) 39.6%, Warren E. Miller (R) 32.1%, David Leonard Osmundson (D) 28.0%

With Delegate Miller running for re-election, and Bates running for Senate, there is effectively one seat in play in this two-member Republican district in northern Howard and southern Carroll County. Trent Kittleman served several roles in the state Department of Transportation under Ehrlich, and is the mother of Allan. Frank Mirabile was the 2010 Republican nominee for Congress in the 7th district, running against Rep. Elijah Cummings.

Del. Warren Miller (R)

Del. Warren Miller (R)

The precincts in this district only gave 41% of the vote to Sen. Barbara Mikulski in 2010, so it is likely to remain in Republican hands.

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 filing deadline:

  1. Warren Miller (R-inc) raised $33,140, cash on hand $21,460
  2. Trent Kittleman (R) raised $12,431, cash on hand $1,498
  3. James Ward Morrow (D) raised $4,075, cash on hand $7,357
  4. Walter Carson (D) raised $200, cash on hand $200

9b

House District 9B – 1 member

Incumbent: Susan Krebs (R) – now in District 5
Filed Challengers: Carol Loveless (R), Tom Coale (D), Rich Corkran (D), Bob Flanagan (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

District 9B is in a completely different place than before redistricting. Formerly in south Carroll County, this district is now in central Howard County, including Ellicott City and parts of Columbia and Elkridge. The precincts that make up the new district gave 56% of the vote to Senator Mikulski in 2010, so this should be an easy Democratic pickup.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Tom Coale (D) raised $68,443, cash on hand $26,182
  2. Bob Flanagan (R) raised $19,706, cash on hand $4,904

Election Projection 2014: District 5

Senate District 5

Incumbent: Joseph M. Getty (R)
Filed Challengers: Anita Riley (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Joseph M. Getty (R) 72.1%, Scott Stone (D) 27.8%
2006: Larry E. Haines (R) unopposed

The old District 5 was split between a two-member 5A in Carroll County and a single-member 5B in northern Baltimore County. Now, the 5th will be a three-member district in Carroll County, which as a whole favored Romney over Obama 65-32% in 2012. Senator Getty will win another term in November, over conservative Democrat Anita Riley.

5

House District 5 – 3 members

Incumbents: Justin Ready (R), Nancy R. Stocksdale (R), Wade Kach (R) –  Stocksdale will retire, Kach is now in 42B
Filed Challengers: Del. Susan Krebs (R), Haven Shoemaker (R), Zachary Hands (D), Dorothy Scanlan (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Justin Ready (R) 38.4%, Nancy R. Stocksdale (R) 34.4%, Francis X. Walsh (D) 13.9%, Sharon L. Baker (D) 13.1%; Wade Kach (R) 70.8%, Pete Definbaugh (D) 24.8%
2006: Nancy R. Stocksdale (R) 36.1%, Tanya Shewell (R) 32.9%, Ann Darrin (D) 16.6%, Frank Henry Rammes (D) 14.3%; Wade Kach (R) unopposed

Delegate Stocksdale retired and Delegate Kach was drawn out of the district, leaving two open seats in this dark-red district. In a crowded primary that featured four current or former representatives, two of them, incumbent Justin Ready and Del. Susan Krebs (who was drawn in from District 9) won the nominations. The third spot on the GOP ballot was won by County Commissioner Haven Shoemaker, who was formerly the mayor of Hampstead. Shoemaker has promised to serve no more than two terms.

 

County Commissioner Haven Shoemaker (R)

The two Democrats should not be a factor in this race and Ready, Krebs, and Shoemaker will be the new District 5 delegation next year.