Category Archives: Calvert

Election Projection 2014: District 29

Senate District 29

Incumbent: Roy Dyson (D)
Filed Challengers: Stephen Waugh (R)
Projection: Lean R+1

Past Results:
2010: Roy Dyson (D) 51.4%, Stephen Waugh (R) 48.5%
2006: Roy Dyson (D) 63.9%, Thomas F. McKay (R) 35.9%

29

District 29 contains all of St. Mary’s County and a small part of southern Calvert County, in the Lusby area. It has been represented by Senator Roy Dyson since 1995, who had previously served the district in Congress for ten years. Once a Democratic stronghold, southern Maryland has been trending Republican in the past 20 years, and the 2010 election may have served as a jolt of energy for Republicans, who swept the county councils of Calvert and St. Mary’s counties, and saw their candidate Stephen Waugh pull within three percentage points of Dyson. While it’s hard to duplicate a Republican wave like 2010, the election result reflected the county’s trend.

Margin of Dyson victory in 2010. Click to enlarge.

Margin of Dyson victory in 2010. Click to enlarge.

Challenging Dyson is former Marine Steve Waugh, who ran for this seat in 2010 and came within three percentage points of victory. He defeated two sitting St. Mary’s county commissioners in the Republican primary: Cindy Jones and Larry Jarboe, neither of whom were able to raise much money.

Waugh will be campaigning hard in St. Mary’s County, where Dyson won 53% of the votes in 2010. Dyson performed extremely well in the northern part of the county, winning six precincts north of Leonardtown, three with at least 56% of the vote. In contrast, Mitt Romney won all of these precincts in 2012, and Larry Jarboe has represented these precincts as County Commissioner for 16 of the last 20 years.

2010-29result

Assuming Sen. Dyson maintains most of his support in his home county, he will likely try to step up his campaign in Calvert County, where he lost badly four years ago in Waugh’s home turf. Three Calvert precincts have been removed from District 29 this year: two were won by Waugh in 2010 and the third went for Dyson by eight votes. If Dyson wants to hang on to his seat, he will have to appeal to more voters in places like Lusby, where Waugh put up some of his best numbers.

The lone Charles County precinct has also been removed from District 29. Waugh won this precinct by 26 votes.

If Dyson can hang on for another two or three terms, demographic shifts in Lexington Park and the growing number of Washington-based federal employees living in the county may lead to the district shifting back into the blue column. If the Waugh runs a solid campaign, he stands a chance of capturing this district from the entrenched incumbent. If not, Dyson will squeak by with a close victory.

Senator Roy Dyson (D)

Senator Roy Dyson (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Roy Dyson (D-inc) raised $40,855, cash on hand $62,759
  2. Stephen Waugh (R) raised $29,075, cash on hand $6,970

House District 29A – 1 member

Incumbent: John Wood (D) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Matt Morgan (R), Daniel Slade (D), Bryan Barthelme (R), Tommy McKay (R)
Projection: Likely R+1

Past Results:
2010: John Wood (D) 50.9%, Matt Morgan (R) 49.0%
2006: John Wood (D) 65.2%, Joe DiMarco (R) 34.6%

29A

This district in northern St. Mary’s County has been trending towards Republicans for years. Delegate John Wood, a conservative Democrat, has decided to retire rather than attempt another run. The retirement gives the Republicans a sizable advantage, and conservative activist Matt Morgan won a three-way primary. Morgan came within two points of unseating Wood in 2010. The Democrats are not without a contender though, as Leonardtown lawyer Daniel Slade (son of former Delegate John Slade) filed for the seat the day after Wood announced his retirement. This election will reveal just how conservative St. Mary’s County has become.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Matt Morgan (R) raised $40,302, cash on hand $15,934
  2. Daniel Slade (D) raised $22,298, cash on hand $7,543

 

House District 29B – 1 member

Incumbent: John Bohanan (D)
Filed Challengers: Deb Rey (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: John Bohanan (D) 52.4%, Erik Anderson (R) 47.5%
2006: John Bohanan (D) 64.0%, Tim Wood (R) 35.9%

The old alignment of 29B and 29C

The old alignment of 29B and 29C

The new 29B

The new 29B

Districts 29B and 29C have been significantly realigned following population growth in the Lexington Park area. The new 29B covers the southern tip of St. Mary’s County, including California, Lexington Park and St. Mary’s City. This is actually the most Democratic of the three districts in the county, but this year the Republicans have landed a great recruit: Deb Rey, a Republican activist who served for 20 years in the Air Force. Delegate John Bohanan will have his hands full if he wants to win a fifth term, although the redistricting itself may work in his favor, as more conservative precincts in the west were moved to 29C.

Del. John Bohanan (D)

Del. John Bohanan (D)

 

Deb Rey (R)

Deb Rey (R)

As the year progresses, Rey’s fundraising remains pedestrian, while Bohanan’s campaign reported another five digits raised in their May report. If this keeps up, Republican hopes for sweeping St. Mary’s County will evaporate.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. John Bohanan (D-inc) raised $74,569, cash on hand $83,265
  2. Deb Rey (R) raised $21,318, cash on hand $10,574

 

House District 29C – 1 member

Incumbent: Tony O’Donnell (R)
Filed Challengers: Len Zuza (D)
Projection: Likely R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Tony O’Donnell (R) 56.8%, Chris Davies (D) 39.8%
2006: Tony O’Donnell (R) 60.3%, Norma Powers (D) 39.6%

29C

The new District 29C follows Route 4 through the southern tip of Calvert County, then across St. Mary’s County to the eastern edge of Leonardtown. Delegate Tony O’Donnell represents this district, and until recently served as Minority Leader in the House before he was ousted last April. Redistricting has actually made 29C more Republican, so O’Donnell should have little difficulty winning, even though Democrat Len Zuza has raised a respectable amount of money.

Del. Tony O'Donnell (R)

Del. Tony O’Donnell (R)

 

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Len Zuza (D) raised $24,089, cash on hand $18,490
  2. Tony O’Donnell (R-inc) raised $23,680, cash on hand $11,840


        

Election Projection 2014: District 27

Senate District 27

Incumbent: Thomas V. Mike Miller (D)
Filed Challengers: Jesse Allen Peed (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold (Miller)

Past Results:
2010: Mike Miller (D) 74.9%, Vernon R. Hayes, Jr. (R) 25.0%
2006: Mike Miller (D) 70.4%, Ron Miller (R) 29.5%

Mike Miller is the President of the Senate, a position every bit as powerful as it sounds. District 27 is made up of most of Calvert County, as well as extreme southern Prince George’s County. In 2010, the PG portion made up 58% of the district’s electorate, and not surprisingly, is where Miller performs best. While Calvert County has a more conservative reputation than its western neighbor, Miller not only won the county in both years but also increased his share in his home county from 54% in 2006 to 56% in 2010.

There is no reason to expect his retirement in 2014, nor should be expect him to seek higher office. The new 27th is reconfigured slightly from its former boundaries: it relinquishes the Accokeek area in western PG County (now in District 26) and the area immediately south of Upper Marlboro (to District 23B), while picking up Hughesville in northern Charles County (from District 28). The move was probably due to Charles County’s explosive growth in the past decade.

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller

 

House District 27A – 1 member

Incumbents: James Proctor (D), Joseph Vallario (D) – Vallario was redrawn into District 23B
Filed Challengers: Joe Crawford (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Jim Proctor (D) 43.4%, Joe Vallario (D) 38.5%, Mike Hethmon (R) 9.3%, Antoinette Jarboe-Duley (R) 8.7%
2006: Jim Proctor (D) 40.3%, Joe Vallario (D) 38.0%, Kenneth S. Brown (R) 11.6%, Antoinette Jarboe-Duley (R) 10.1%

The first thing to note about 27A is that it has been split from a two-member district into two single-member districts. The second is that longtime (since 1975) Delegate Joe Vallario has been, possibly intentionally, drawn out of the district he is used to serving.

27A

The powerful duo of Jim Proctor and Joe Vallario, who have served together since 1991, is finally to be broken up. Proctor is Vice Chairman of the powerful Appropriations Committee, which determines how money is spent. The other delegate, Vallario, serves as Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, where he has control of the process of passing crime laws such as death penalty repeal and gun control. The Washington Post published an excellent article last year detailing the Del. Vallario’s power, as well as the criticisms that have inevitably dogged him after 20 years as chairman of a major House committee.

The new single-member 27A stretches from Accokeek to Eagle Harbor, and includes for the first time a slice of northern Charles County. Veteran Delegate Jim Proctor should have little trouble winning a new term.

Delegate Jim Proctor (D)

Delegate Jim Proctor (D)

 

House District 27B – 1 member

Incumbent: none – Mark Fisher (R) has moved to District 27C
Filed Challengers: Michael A. Jackson (D), Philip A. Parenti (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Mark N. Fisher (R) 52.6%, Sue Kullen (D) 47.4%
2006: Sue Kullen (D) 56.8%, David Hale (R) 43.1%

27B

This is a unique case in Maryland this year, where rather than drawing an incumbent into a different district, the state redrew the district in the entirely different direction. The new 27B contains the northern part of Prince George’s County that was formerly in 27A, as well as 27A’s share of Calvert County. It also includes a small part of the old 27B, the Owings area, where Delegate Fisher lived when he first ran in 2010.

Unlike the purple-hued former 27B, the new district is deep blue, largely owing to its pickups in PG county. Del. Fisher ended up moving his residence from Owings to Prince Frederick in the more conservative District 27C, leaving 27B a purely open Democratic seat. Former PG County Sheriff Michael A. Jackson handily won the Democratic primary, which all but assures him a win in November over Republican Phil Parenti.

Michael A. Jackson served as Sheriff of Prince George's County from 2002-10.

Michael A. Jackson (D) served as Sheriff of Prince George’s County from 2002-10.

 

House District 27C – 1 member

Incumbent: Mark Fisher (R)
Filed Challengers: Sue Kullen (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold

27C

This new district is very similar to the old 27B, but without the Owings area in the north, and adding an area south of Prince Frederick. Former Delegate Sue Kullen, who lost the 27B seat to Delegate Mark Fisher in 2010, is seeking to regain a seat in the House. In anything but another Republican wave year like 2010, Kullen should have the edge. As it was, she only lost her seat to Fisher by 800 votes.

Del. Mark N. Fisher (R)

Del. Mark N. Fisher (R)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Mark Fisher (R-inc) raised $96,178, cash on hand $61.320
  2. Sue Kullen (D) raised $75,828, cash on hand $38,077