Category Archives: Baltimore County

Election Projection 2014: Baltimore County

BalCoMap

The partisan divisions of eastern vs. western Baltimore County could not have been more apparent during the 2010 Democratic primary for County Executive between the liberal Kevin Kamenetz and the more conservative Joseph Bartenfelder. The Republicans also picked up an eastern council seat, making the chamber 5-2 Democratic. The county as a whole is trending more Democratic, with much of the growth being in west county between I-795 and Route 40.

Past Results:

Presidential:
2012: Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 57.3%, Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan (R) 40.3%
2008: Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 56.2%, John McCain/Sarah Palin (R) 41.7%

Gubernatorial:
2010: Martin O’Malley/Anthony Brown (D) 49.2%, Robert Ehrlich/Mary Kane (R) 48.7%
2006: Robert Ehrlich/Kristin Cox (R) 50.9%, Martin O’Malley/Anthony Brown (D) 47.9%

County Executive

Incumbent: Kevin Kamenetz (D)
Filed Challengers: George H. Harman (R), Tony Solesky (I)
Projection: Safe D Hold

County Executive Kevin Kamenetz (D)

County Executive Kevin Kamenetz (D)

With a strong incumbent in the race, and no Republicans with county name recognition, Kevin Kamenetz is strongly favored to win a second term.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Kevin Kamenetz (D-inc) raised $893,992, cash on hand $1,025,807
  2. George Harman (R) raised $3,060, cash on hand $2,996
  3. Tony Solesky (I) raised $1,000, cash on hand $1,000

 

Click “read more” for an analysis of every council seat.

Election Projection 2014: District 12

Senate District 12

Incumbent: Edward Kasemeyer (D)
Filed Challengers: Jesse Pippy (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Edward Kasemeyer (D) 58.7%, Rick Martel (R) 41.3%
2006: Edward Kasemeyer (D) 62.3%, Rick Martel (R) 37.6%

The 12th District changes little, remaining anchored in southwest Baltimore County and including a strip of central Columbia in Howard County. The main difference is that the districts 12A and 12B have been combined into a single three-member district. Senator Kasemeyer has filed for re-election and will likely win again.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Edward Kasemeyer (D-inc) raised $74,982, cash on hand $114,798
  2. Jesse Pippy (R) raised $23,668, cash on hand $16,351

 

12

House District 12 – 3 members

Incumbents: James E. Malone (D), Steven DeBoy (D), Elizabeth Bobo (D) – all retiring: Malone, DeBoy, Bobo
Filed Challengers: Eric Ebersole (D), Terri Hill (D), Clarence K. Lam (D), Gordon Bull (R), Joe Hooe (R), Rick Martel (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: James E. Malone (D) 28.3%, Steven DeBoy (D) 26.1%, Joe Hooe (R) 24.7%, Albert L. Nalley (R) 20.9%; Elizabeth Bobo (D) 71.6%, Robert Wheatley (R) 28.4%
2006: James E. Malone (D) 30.6%, Steven DeBoy (D) 28.1%, Joe Hooe (R) 22.5%, Albert L. Nalley (R) 18.8%; Elizabeth Bobo (D) 75.3%, Christopher J. Feldwick (R) 24.6%

This is a rare case where all three seats are open due to retirement. The precincts making up the new district gave Senator Mikulski 60.6% of the vote in 2010 (great candidate in a horrible year), so it should come as so surprise that a host of Democrats have filed for the seat: 10 to be exact. The winners were teacher Eric Ebersole and physicians Terri Hill and Clarence Lam.

There were only three Republicans who ran, making their primary choice very easy. The candidates are businessmen Gordon Bull of Arbutus and Joe Hooe of Lansdowne, and attorney Rick Martel of Catonsville.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Terri Hill (D) raised $105,966, cash on hand $6,481
  2. Clarence Lam (D) raised $91,319, cash on hand $15,000
  3. Eric Ebersole (D) raised $45,080, cash on hand $6,884
  4. Joe Hooe (R) raised $8,210, cash on hand $2,090
  5. Gordon Bull (R) raised $4,234, cash on hand $793
  6. Rick Martel (R) raised $1,825, cash on hand $900

Election Projection 2014: District 11

Senate District 11

Incumbent: Bobby Zirkin (D)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Bobby Zirkin (D) unopposed
2006: Bobby Zirkin (D) 70.8%, Jeffrey S. Yablon (R) 29.1%

This district gave up Reisterstown and Hernwood, while picking up western Towson. Vote-wise this is an even trade, as both the areas gained and received lean Democratic. Senator Zirkin should have no surprises in 2014, and indeed he looks set to run unopposed for the second election cycle in a row.

11

House District 11 – 3 members

Incumbents: Jon Cardin (D), Dan K. Morhaim (D), Dana Stein (D) – Cardin ran unsuccessfully for Attorney General
Filed Challengers: Shelly Hettleman (D), Laura Harkins (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Jon Cardin (D) 24.3%, Dan K. Morhaim (D) 21.3%, Dana Stein (D) 21.2%, J. Michael Collins (R) 10.6%, Carol C. Byrd (R) 10.5%, Steven J. Smith (R) 10.3%
2006: Jon Cardin (D) 25.8%, Dan K. Morhaim (D) 24.6%, Dana Stein (D) 24.0%, Patrick V. Dyer (R) 11.0%, Patrick Abbondandolo (R) 10.1%

Senator Zirkin and Delegates Morhaim and Stein have formed a slate together for 2014. That leaves one open seat in this safe Democratic territory, as Delegate Cardin left the House of Delegates to run for AG. Shelly Hettleman rode a massive fundraising advantage to victory in June. Laura Harkins will be the only Republican on the ballot.

Election Projection 2014: District 10

Senate District 10

Incumbent: Delores G. Kelley (D)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Delores G. Kelley (D) 98.2%, Stephanie Boston (D-write in) 1.2%
2006: Delores G. Kelley (D) unopposed

District 10 retains its base in west Baltimore county, while picking up Reisterstown from the 11th. Senator Delores Kelley won a three-way primary in June and will cruise to re-election without a Republican opponent.

10

House District 10 – 3 members

Incumbents: Emmett C. Burns (D), Shirley Nathan-Pulliam (D), Adrienne A. Jones (D) – Burns and Nathan-Pulliam are now in District 44B.
Filed Challengers: Benjamin Brooks (D), Jay Jalisi (D), William T. Newton (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Emmett C. Burns (D) 31.6%, Shirley Nathan-Pulliam (D) 31.5%, Adrienne A. Jones (D) 29.8%, Jeanne L. Turnock (R) 6.9%
2006: Emmett C. Burns (D), Shirley Nathan-Pulliam (D), Adrienne A. Jones (D) unopposed

While the district gained territory in the north, it lost its share of Catonsville and most of Woodlawn as well. Incumbent delegates Burns and Nathan-Pulliam, who resided in these southern areas, are now out of the district. Therefore, there are two open seats in this safe Democratic district.

Jones will be joined on the ballot by Jay Jalisi and Benjamin Brooks, who edged out Carin Smith for the third spot by just 310 votes. William T. Newton is the only Republican running in District 10.

Election Projection 2014: District 42

Senate District 42

Incumbent: Jim Brochin (D)
Filed Challengers: Tim Robinson (R)
Projection: Lean R+1

Past Results:
2010: Jim Brochin (D) 58.4%, Kevin Carney (R) 41.5%
2006: Jim Brochin (D) 56.3%, Douglas B. Riley (R) 43.7%

Past results don’t mean as much when a district is as fully reconfigured as Sen. Brochin’s was. Instead of being a compact district just north of Baltimore, it now stretches from Towson to the Pennsylvania border. The district becomes much more conservative, and Brochin was, unsurprisingly, less than pleased with the map. In fact, it’s possible the district was drawn this way specifically to make it harder for Brochin to win re-election in 2014. According to an article in the Washington Post, Brochin drew Governor O’Malley’s ire in 2006 when he voted with then-Governor Ehrlich’s allies to block a state takeover of 11 schools in Baltimore City, of which O’Malley was the mayor. O’Malley backed Connie DeJuliis over Brochin in the Democratic primary, but Brochin won with nearly 70% of the vote, despite being outraised.

Sen. Jim Brochin (D)

Sen. Jim Brochin (D)

However, the new district’s demographics make it more likely to elect a Republican, and anesthesiologist Tim Robinson is the only remaining Republican in the race. While the district looks like a likely GOP pickup on paper, Brochin’s willingness to defy O’Malley and the Democratic establishment win him major points as an independent in this district. Robinson will also need to put up stronger fundraising numbers if he hopes to help the Republicans capture this seat. All in all, this may be the most competitive Senate race in the state, and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Jim Brochin (D-inc) raised $150,010, cash on hand $149,295
  2. Tim Robinson (R) raised $63,108, cash on hand $39,461

House District 42A – 1 member

Incumbent: Steve Lafferty (D)
Filed Challengers: Mike McAllister (R)
Projection: Likely D Hold

42a

District 42A is a new single-member district in Towson. Del. Steve Lafferty has always enjoyed bipartisan support, having served as the old District 42’s sole Democratic representative (alongside two Republicans). He should have an easy path to re-election, facing no primary opposition and little threat from Republicans in this strongly Democratic district.

Del. Steve Lafferty (D)

Del. Steve Lafferty (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Stephen Lafferty (D-inc) raised $53,420, cash on hand $67,032
  2. Michael McAllister (R) raised $2,524, cash on hand -$166

 

House District 42B – 2 members

Incumbents: Susan Aumann (R), William Frank (R) – Frank is not running for re-election
Filed Challengers: Robert Leonard (D), Craig J. Little (D), Chris West (R)
Projection: Likely R Hold

42b

This new district stretches from Lutherville/Timonium in the south to the Mason-Dixon line in the northwest corner of the county. It is expected to send two Republicans to the House. Incumbent Del. Susan Aumann was a shoo-in to be one of them, and Del. Joseph Boteler, who has been drawn in from District 8, was expected to be the other. However, Boteler put up awful fundraising numbers, and was defeated in the Republican primary by Chris West.

Del. Susan Aumann (R)

Democrats are absolutely contesting these seats. Teacher and attorney Robert Leonard has raised the most money out of any candidate since the primary, including Del. Aumann. He will be joined on the Democratic ticket by attorney Craig Little from Lutherville. While it would be a pleasant surprise for Democrats to make inroads in central Baltimore County, it would certainly be unexpected.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 deadline:

  1. Chris West (R) raised $139,920, cash on hand $8,627
  2. Susan Aumann (R-inc) raised $58,715, cash on hand $47,370
  3. Robert Leonard (D) raised $24,085, cash on hand $16,404
  4. Craig Little (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

Election Projection 2014: District 6

Senate District 6

Incumbent: Norm Stone (D) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Johnny Ray Salling (R), John Olszewski, Jr. (D), Scott M. Collier (I)
Projection: Likely D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Norm Stone (D) 57.8%, Bruce Kahl (R) 42.0%
2006: Norm Stone (R) 69.9%, Bill Kushnerick (R) 30.0%

This is perhaps the single most interesting district this cycle. Once the center of Democratic political power in Baltimore County, this district based in Dundalk and Essex has become significantly more conservative in the past decade. After a mind-boggling FIFTY-TWO years serving as this district’s state Senator, Norm Stone is finally retiring following the 2014 elections. Republicans like their chances of taking this district this year, and Johnny Ray Salling has stepped forward for the GOP.

Del. John Olszewski, Jr. (D) looks to succeed Sen. Norm Stone (D) in 2014

Del. John Olszewski, Jr. (D) looks to succeed Sen. Norm Stone (D) in 2014

The Democrats also have a candidate, as Delegate John Olszewski, Jr. is running for Stone’s seat. Olszewski starts out with a huge advantage in name recognition, as he has served as a Delegate for two terms and his father has been a county councilman since 1998. “Johnny O” Jr.’s  more liberal voting record may make him unpopular with an electorate that seems to be increasingly conservative; this district went for John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. However, his Republican opponent, Johnny Ray Salling, has almost no visibility and has raised less than $3,000 this cycle.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. John Olszewski, Jr. (D) raised $167,573, cash on hand $142,540
  2. Johnny Ray Salling (R) raised $2,989, cash on hand $245
  3. Scott M. Collier (I) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

6

House District 6 – 3 members

Incumbents: John Olszewski, Jr. (D), Mike Weir (D), Joe Minnick (D) – Olsewski will run for Senate, Minnick will retire
Filed Challengers: Jake Mohorovic (D), Nicholas D’Adamo, Jr. (D), Bob Long (R), Robin L. Grammer (R), Ric Metzgar (R)
Projection: Likely Weir (D) Hold, 2 Toss-Up

With Olszewski and Minnick leaving the House, Mike Weir will be the only incumbent running from this district. The race for the two seats opened up quickly, with eleven Democrats and nine Republicans filing for the seats. Del. Olszewski  formed a full Democratic ticket with himself as candidate for State Senate and Del. Weir, Ed Crizer and Eric Washington for Delegates. Olszewski’s plans fell flat when voters instead chose former delegate Jake Mohorovic and former Baltimore city councilman Nick D’Adamo to run alongside Weir.

2014 Democratic primary results by precinct winner. (Green: Mike Weir, Dark blue: Nick D'Adamo, Jr., Light blue: Jake Mohorovic, Yellow: Eric Washington, Purple: Ed Crizer

2014 Democratic primary winner by precinct. (Green: Mike Weir, Dark blue: Nick D’Adamo, Jr., Light blue: Jake Mohorovic, Yellow: Eric Washington, Purple: Ed Crizer

In general, Mohorovic won the precincts in Dundalk, D’Adamo won the precincts just outside his former city council district, Eric Washington carried precincts with majority African-American population, while Weir carried Essex, Edgemere, and Sparrow’s Point. (Data)

Will this be the new 6th district delegation?

Of the three Republicans in the race, two of them ran for these seats in 2010: real estate broker and Dundalk resident Bob Long, and Essex community leader Ric Metzgar. Long and Metzgar placed first and second in the GOP primary, with Robin Grammer of Essex taking the third spot.

This year is the GOP’s best shot at picking up at least one seat here, with two open races. Del. Weir is likely safe, but so far it’s unclear who will join him in the delegation. D’Adamo and Mohorovic both have years of experience as elected officials, but a local backlash over tax and toll increases could bring Long and Grammer into those seats instead.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Michael Weir (D-inc) raised $60,342, cash on hand $11,365
  2. Bob Long (R) raised $22,809, cash on hand $8,532
  3. Robin Grammer (R) raised $20,481, cash on hand $11,645
  4. Ric Metzgar (R) raised $12,014, cash on hand $1,036
  5. Nick D’Adamo, Jr. (D) raised $6,949, cash on hand $76,334
  6. Jake Mohorovic (D) raised $4,085, cash on hand $3,979


        

Election Projection 2014: District 8

Senate District 8

Incumbent: Katherine Klausmeier (D)
Filed Challengers: Erik Lofstad (R)
Projection: Likely D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Katherine Klausmeier (D) 59.7%, Dee Hodges (R) 40.2%
2006: Katherine Klausmeier (D) 58.2%, Craig Borne (R) 41.7%

Sen. Kathy Klausmeier (D)

Sen. Kathy Klausmeier (D)

Senator Klausmeier is a popular incumbent: she continually was elected as a Democrat in a district that sent two out of three Republican delegates to Annapolis from 1995-2003. She also managed to increase her votes from the Democratic wave of 2006 to the Republican wave of 2010. She shouldn’t have much trouble in 2014.

 

 

8

House District 8 – 3 members

Incumbents: Joe Boteler (R), John Cluster (R), Eric Bromwell (D) – Boteler is now in District 42B
Filed Challengers: Bill Paulshock (D), Renee Smith (D), Christian Miele (R), Norma Secoura (R)
Projection: Toss-up to Lean D+1

Past Result:
2010: Joe Boteler (R) 19.4%, John Cluster (R) 17.4%, Eric Bromwell (D) 17.3%, Ruth Baisden (D) 16.7%, Norma Secoura (R) 14.7%, Cal Bowman (D) 14.4%
2006: Eric Bromwell (D) 17.9%, Joe Boteler (R) 17.4%, Todd Schuler (D) 16.3%, Ruth Baisden (D) 16.2%, Melissa Redmer Mullahey (R) 16.1%, John Cluster (R) 16.0%

Curiously, while this district has elected a Democratic senator every year in recent memory, often by safe margins (see Klausmeier above), it tends to vote Republican at the Delegates level – the 8th district delegation has been majority Republican since 1991. This could change, however, as voter loyalty tends to be personal (mainly to Boteler, Bromwell and Klausmeier) rather than along party lines. The GOP’s strongest candidate, incumbent Delegate Joe Boteler, was redrawn into 42B, giving the Democrats a shot for at least one pickup. Democrats have the edge in the Overlea area, and in redistricting the 8th picked up some Democratic neighborhoods in Towson while dropping the Republican-leaning northern Carney area. A strong Democratic push could possibly sweep the district, but a gain of one is more likely. Restaurant owner Bill Paulshock and Klausmeier aide Renee Smith will join Bromwell on the Democratic ticket. On the Republican side, John Cluster will be joined by Christian Miele and 2010 candidate Norma Secoura.

Del. Eric Bromwell (D)

Del. Eric Bromwell (D)

 

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Eric Bromwell (D-inc) raised $65,685, cash on hand $24,944
  2. Bill Paulshock (D) raised $54,723, cash on hand $5,630
  3. John Cluster (R-inc) raised $38,536, cash on hand $44,695
  4. Renee Smith (D) raised $12,995, cash on hand $10,165
  5. Norma Secoura (R) raised $10,385, cash on hand $8,885
  6. Christian Miele (R) raised $9,491, cash on hand $1,042


        

Election Projection 2014: District 7

Senate District 7

Incumbent: J.B. Jennings (R)
Filed Challengers: Kim Letke (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: J.B. Jennings (R) 65.9%, Rebecca Weir Nelson (D) 33.9%
2006: Andy Harris (R) 56.6%, Patricia A. Foerster (D) 43.4%

This district now comprises rural eastern Baltimore County, rural western Harford County, and Middle River. This will remain in Republican hands.

7

House District 7 – 3 members

Incumbents: Pat McDonough (R), Rick Impallaria (R), Kathy Szeliga (R)
Filed Challengers: Norman Gifford (D), Bob Bowie (D), Pete Definbaugh (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Pat McDonough (R) 23.1%, Rick Impallaria (R) 21.6%, Kathy Szeliga (R) 20.9%, Jeff Beard (D) 12.6%, Kristina A. Sargent (D) 11.5%, James Ward Morrow (D) 10.2%
2006: Pat McDonough (R) 20.3%, Rick Impallaria (R) 18.7%, J.B. Jennings (R) 18.6%, Linda Hart (D) 15.0%, Jack Sturgill (D) 13.5%, Rebecca L. Nelson (D) 11.8%

Again, in a heavily Republican district that has been made even more Republican with redistricting, this won’t be much of a contest. Democrats have managed to put up a full slate of candidates, but none of them are very likely to come in the top three.