Category Archives: Baltimore City

Election Projection 2014: District 44

Senate District 44

Incumbent: Verna Jones-Rodwell (D) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Shirley Nathan-Pulliam (D), Bernard Reiter (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold (Nathan-Pulliam)

The new 44th Senate District, comprised of 44B (light blue) and 44A (light red). Click to enlarge.

The new 44th Senate District, comprised of 44B (light blue) and 44A (light red). Click to enlarge.

We aren’t including past results because this district has changed so much. Formerly a three-member district in west Baltimore City, population decreases within city limits have forced legislators to substantially redraw the district lines. This is now a single-member district inside Baltimore City, and a two-member district in western Baltimore County, containing most of the African-American majority precincts just north of Catonsville which were previously in District 10.

District 10 Delegate Shirley Nathan-Pulliam (D) is the only Democrat left in the race

District 10 Delegate Shirley Nathan-Pulliam (D) is the only Democrat left in the race

The incumbent from the old district, Verna Jones-Rodwell, faced a challenge from District 10 Delegate Shirley Nathan-Pulliam. Both sitting legislators had substantial war chests, and high levels of name recognition in their respective districts (Jones-Rodwell in the city, Nathan-Pulliam in the county). By sheer numbers, about 2/3 of the new 44 has been represented by Shirley Nathan-Pulliam, while only 1/3 was previously served by Verna Jones-Rodwell, meaning her road to re-election would be a steep one.

In late April, Sen. Jones-Rodwell decided to retire, leaving the race all but decided in this solid Democratic district.

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 deadline:

  1. Shirley Nathan-Pulliam (D) raised $51,382, cash on hand $88,254
  2. Bernard Reiter (R) raised $2,600, cash on hand $1,503

House District 44A – 1 member

Incumbents: Keiffer Mitchell, Jr. (D), Keith E. Haynes (D), Melvin L. Stukes (D)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe D Hold (Mitchell)

44A

Population loss in Baltimore City means that District 44, which has been electing three delegates from the city, is now reduced to a single-member district in the city and a two-member district in the county. All three city delegates are now forced to run for one seat, and it is anyone’s guess as to who will come out on top.

Del. Keiffer Mitchell, nephew of former Congressman Parren Mitchell, has raised the most money by far.

Del. Keiffer Mitchell (D)

Del. Keiffer Mitchell (D)

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 deadline:

  1. Keiffer Mitchell (D-inc) raised $68,824, cash on hand $14,957
  2. Keith Haynes (D-inc) raised $18,150, cash on hand $22,941
  3. Melvin Stukes (D-inc) raised $18,010, cash on hand $1,662

House District 44B – 2 members

Incumbents: none – new district
Filed Challengers: Aaron J. Barnett (D), Bishop Barry Chapman (D), Rainier Harvey (D), Charles E. Snydor, III (D), Frederick D. Ware-Newsome (D), Pat Young (D), Michael J. Russell (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

44B

This is a brand new district created out of the southern portion of District 10 in Baltimore County. It is expected to vote heavily Democratic, and all the action is in the primary. Often in a crowded primary with no obvious front-runners, campaign contributions are the best indicator of a candidate’s level of support.

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 deadline:

  1. Rainier Harvey (D) raised $58,760, cash on hand $16,855*
  2. Aaron Barnett (D) raised $44,582, cash on hand $8,956
  3. Pat Young (D) raised $44,023, cash on hand $10,756
  4. Michael J. Russell (R) raised $1,225, cash on hand $1,225
  5. Bishop Barry Chapman (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  6. Frederick Ware-Newsome (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
*Candidate is missing one or more finance reports.

Election Projection 2014: District 46

Senate District 46

Incumbent: Bill Ferguson (D)
Filed Challengers: Mateen Ratul Zar (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Bill Ferguson (D) unopposed
2006: George W. Della (D) 73.0%, Keith Losoya (R) 26.8%

Sen. Ferguson faces alternative physician Dr. Mateen Zar from Curtis Bay in the Democratic primary. Ferguson’s main bases of support are the affluent neighborhoods north of the Patapsco River such as Fells Point and Canton. Although Zar has self-funded to the tune of $15,000, he does not pose a legitimate threat to the incumbent.

Sen. Bill Ferguson, IV (D-inc)

Sen. Bill Ferguson, IV (D-inc)

Campaign Finances as of the April 15 deadline:

  1. Bill Ferguson (D-inc) raised $109,357, cash on hand $121,037
  2. Mateen Rahul Zar (D) raised $16,460, cash on hand $983

 

46

House District 46 – 3 members

Incumbents: Luke Clippinger (D), Brian McHale (D), Peter A. Hammen (D) – McHale will retire
Filed Challengers: Brooke Lierman (D), Liam F. Davis (D), Bill Romani (D), Roger D. Bedingfield (R), Joseph Sedtal (R), Duane Shelton (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Peter A. Hammen (D) 29.6%, Brian K. McHale (D) 28.6%, Luke Clippinger (D) 27.3%, Roger Bedingfield (R) 14.1%
2006: Peter A. Hammen (D) 29.6%, Carolyn Krysiak (D) 29.6%, Brian K. McHale (D) 29.0%, Peter Kimos (R) 11.6%

Del. McHale’s retirement opens up a vacant seat in heavily-Democratic south Baltimore. Brooke Lierman is the establishment choice, being welcomed to the District 46 team by the other three representatives, and scoring endorsements from the likes of Congressman Elijah Cummings and City Councilman Ed Reisinger.

Campaign Finances as of the April 15 deadline:

  1. Peter Hammen (D-inc) raised $84,935, cash on hand $120,655
  2. Brooke Lierman (D) raised $124,017, cash on hand $104,494
  3. Luke Clippinger (D-inc) raised $42,469, cash on hand $51,634
  4. Bill Romani (D) raised $39,597, cash on hand $33,312
  5. Liam Davis (D) raised $12,006, cash on hand $4,248
  6. Roger Bedingfield (R) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  7. Duane Shelton (R) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  8. Joseph Sedtal (R) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

Election Projection 2014: District 40

Senate District 40

Incumbent: Catherine Pugh (D)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Catherine Pugh (D) unopposed
2006: Catherine Pugh (D) 90.1%, Stephen George (R) 9.7%

Senator Pugh is running unopposed in one of the most heavily Democratic districts in the state.

40

House District 40 – 3 members

Incumbents: Frank M. Conaway, Jr. (D), Barbara A. Robinson (D), Shawn Z. Tarrant (D)
Filed Challengers: Douglas R. Barry (D), Marvin “Doc” Cheatham (D), Quianna M. Cooke (D), Antonio Hayes (D), Rob “Bobby” LaPin (D), Bill Marker (D), Timothy Mercer (D)

Due to population losses in western Baltimore, District 40 has picked up some areas in the southwestern part of the city that were formerly in District 44.

Campaign Finances as of the April 15 deadline:

  1. Frank Conaway (D-inc) raised $62,815, cash on hand $64,645
  2. Shawn Z. Tarrant (D-inc) raised $36,954, cash on hand $29,604
  3. Barbara Robinson (D-inc) raised $15,472, cash on hand $20,838
  4. Rob LaPin (D) raised $10,149, cash on hand $7,124
  5. Antonio Hayes (D) raised $6,070, cash on hand $5,886
  6. Bill Marker (D) raised $5,000, cash on hand $4,765
  7. Quianna M. Cooke (D) raised $0, cash on hand $676
  8. Douglas R. Barry (D) raised $225, cash on hand $204
  9. Marvin Cheatham (D) raised $3,000, cash on hand -$604

Election Projection 2014: District 45

Senate District 45

Incumbent: Nathaniel J. McFadden (D)
Filed Challengers: Julius Henson (D), Daton Lynch (I)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Nathaniel J. McFadden (D) unopposed
2006: Nathaniel J. McFadden (D) 86.4%, Leonard J. Wolff (R) 13.5%

Sen. Nathaniel McFadden (D)

Del. Nathaniel McFadden (D)

Julius Henson, a political consultant infamous for his involvement of the “robocall” voter suppression initiative by the Bob Ehrlich campaign in 2010, is challenging Sen. Nathaniel McFadden in this east Baltimore City district. After being convicted of election fraud in 2012, Henson was placed on probation from participating in elections, of which his candidacy here is a violation.

45

House District 45 – 3 members

Incumbents: Talmadge Branch (D), Cheryl D. Glenn (D), Nina Harper (D) – Harper is not running in 2014
Filed Challengers: Marques Dent (D), Cory V. McCray (D), Kevin W. Parson (D), Harry Spikes (D), Robert Stokes (D), Aaron Keith Wilkes (D), Rick Saffery (R), Larry Wardlow, Jr. (R), Ronald Owens-Bey (L)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Talmadge Branch (D) 30.0%, Cheryl D. Glenn (D) 29.3%, Hattie N. Harrison (D) 28.2%, Rick Saffery (R) 4.5%, Larry Wardlow, Jr. (R) 4.2%, Ronald Owens-Bey (L) 3.7%
2006: Cheryl Glenn (D) 32.6%, Hattie N. Harrison (D) 31.0%, Talmadge Branch (D) 30.9%, Ronald Owens-Bey (P) 5.3%

The passing of Del. Hattie Harrison in early 2013 led to her temporary replacement by Nina Harper. Harper is not running for election in 2014, so there will be one open seat in this heavily Democratic district.

Campaign Finances as of the January 15 deadline:

  1. Cheryl Glenn (D-inc) raised $48,930, cash on hand $52,104
  2. Talmadge Branch (D-inc) raised $58,690, cash on hand $50,474
  3. Cory McCray (D) raised $41,563, cash on hand $40,651
  4. Marques Dent (D) raised $6,917, cash on hand $5,616
  5. Kevin Parson (D) raised $0, cash on hand $2,345
  6. Robert Stokes (D) raised $2,395, cash on hand $1,913
  7. Harry Spikes (D) raised $1,200, cash on hand $635
  8. Larry Wardlow (R) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  9. Ronald Owens-Bey (L) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

Election Projection 2014: District 43

Senate District 43

Incumbent: Joan Carter Conway (D)
Filed Challengers: Bill Henry (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results: (general elections)
2010: Joan Carter Conway (D) unopposed
2006: Joan Carter Conway (D) 88.7%, Maria Allwine (G) 11.1%

Past Results: (Democratic primary elections)
2010: Joan Carter Conway 69.5%, Hector L. Torres 30.5%
2006: Joan Carter Conway 92.0%, Dave Vane 8.0%

Sen. Joan Carter Conway (D)

Sen. Joan Carter Conway (D)

Sen. Conway has attracted a relatively high-profile challenger, city councilman Bill Henry. This is a rarity in Baltimore politics, and is the only city Senate seat where this is happening.

Campaign Finances as of the January 15 deadline:

  1. Joan Carter Conway (D-inc) raised $59,075, cash on hand $106,060
  2. Bill Henry (D) raised $9,475, cash on hand $8,366

 

43

House District 43 – 3 members

Incumbents: Curt Anderson (D), Maggie McIntosh (D), Mary Washington (D)
Filed Challengers: Timothy Vance (D), Greg A. Dorsey (I)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Curt Anderson (D) 35.1%, Maggie McIntosh (D) 32.9%, Mary Washington (D) 31.6%
2006: Curt Anderson (D) 29.4%, Maggie McIntosh (D) 29.1%, Ann Marie Doory (D) 28.0%, Armand F. Girard (R) 4.5%, David S. Greene (G) 3.5%, Brandy Baker (G) 3.0%, Richard J. Ochs (G) 2.3%

The three incumbents are expected to hold their seats through 2014. Neither challenger has realistic name recognition or sufficient funds to win. What Del. Anderson lacks in funds he makes up for in local support; he won the highest percentage of votes overall in the primary and general elections in both 2006 and 2010.

Campaign Finances as of the January 15 deadline:

  1. Maggie McIntosh (D-inc) raised $87,047, cash on hand $77,442
  2. Mary Washington (D-inc) raised $63,737, cash on hand $49,163
  3. Curt Anderson (D-inc) raised $2,300, cash on hand $4,773

Election Projection 2014: District 41

Senate District 41

Incumbent: Lisa Gladden (D)
Filed Challengers: Will Hanna (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Lisa Gladden (D) unopposed
2006: Lisa Gladden (D) unopposed

Sen. Gladden faces a challenge from fellow Democrat Will Hanna in this northwestern Baltimore district.

41

House District 41 – 3 members

Incumbents: Jill P. Carter (D), Nathaniel T. Oaks (D), Sandy Rosenberg (D)
Filed Challengers: Michael Pearson (D), Joyce J. Smith (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Jill P. Carter (D) 33.5%, Sandy Rosenberg (D) 30.4%, Nathaniel T. Oaks (D) 29.4%, Mark Ehrlichmann (R) 6.3%
2006: Jill P. Carter (D) 33.7%, Sandy Rosenberg (D) 30.3%, Nathaniel T. Oaks (D) 28.6%, Tony Asa (R) 7.2%