Category Archives: Anne Arundel

Election Projection 2018: District 30

Senate District 30

Incumbent: John Astle (D)
Possible Challengers: Ron George (R), Herb McMillan (R)

Past Results:
2014: John Astle (D) 51.3%, Don Quinn (R) 48.6%
2010: John Astle (D) 51.1%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 48.8%

New District 30

District 30 was redrawn considerably in 2014, giving up Arnold and Cape St. Claire in exchange for Edgewater and south county. While Democratic Senator John Astle slightly increased his vote share from 2010 to 2014, the surprising performance by his underfunded Republican opponent, Don Quinn, has put this seat at the top of the GOP’s target list in 2018. Former delegate and gubernatorial candidate Ron George has declared his intention to run for this seat, but Delegate Herb McMillan may also run. Astle, for his part, has expressed his intention to run for a seventh term.

Election Projection 2014: Anne Arundel County

Screenshot of the original - click to view

Screenshot of the original – click to view

Anne Arundel County is the home of the state capital of Annapolis, the state’s major international airport at BWI-Thurgood Marshall, the state’s largest shopping mall at Arundel Mills, one of the state’s largest casinos at Maryland Live, and Fort Meade, which has been the major beneficiary of the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) relocation program, as well as the headquarters of the National Security Agency (NSA). Population growth has been concentrated in the western area of the county, where the military base, mall, and casino are located. In redistricting, only a single precinct was moved: a precinct in Severn/northern Odenton containing the communities of Pioneer City and Shamrock Cove was shifted from District 4 to District 1.

While the county has a reputation for voting Republican, trends suggest that a major shift may be underway.

Past Results:

Presidential:
2012: Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan (R) 48.8%, Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 48.7%
2008: John McCain/Sarah Palin (R) 50.0%, Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 48.2%

Gubernatorial:
2010: Robert Ehrlich/Mary Kane (R) 54.2%, Martin O’Malley/Anthony Brown (D) 43.4%
2006: Robert Ehrlich/Kristen Cox (R) 56.9%, Martin O’Malley/Anthony Brown (D) 42.0%

County Executive

Incumbent: Laura Neuman (R) – Lost primary
Filed Challengers: George F. Johnson, IV (D), Steve Schuh (R)
Projection: Lean R Hold

Past Results:
2010: John R. Leopold (R) 50.4%, Joanna Conti (D) 44.0%, Mike Shay (G) 5.4%
2006: John R. Leopold (R) 51.0%, George F. Johnson, IV (D) 48.9%

The County Executive race was once seen as an easy win for Steve Schuh, but it has turned into a dead heat as George Johnson’s campaign gained serious momentum in October, despite being vastly outraised by Schuh.

George Johnson, IV (D)

George Johnson, IV (D)

George Johnson IV ran for this office in 2006, after serving for 12 years as the county’s elected sheriff. After losing a close election to John Leopold 49%-51%, Johnson was appointed Superintendent of the Maryland Natural Resources Police, a position he still holds today. Johnson’s path to victory will be getting the Democratic base to turn out – and not vote Green Party. Mike Shay took over 5% of the vote in 2010, and while this didn’t make the difference in the race, it would have brought it within one percentage point.

Del. Steve Schuh (R)

Del. Steve Schuh (R)

Steve Schuh is a state delegate from Gibson Island who has compiled a very conservative voting record while in the House of Delegates. He has long been seen as the front-runner in this race, and it wasn’t even considered an upset when he defeated sitting County Executive Laura Neuman in the Republican primary. Many people expected him to be appointed to the position when John Leopold resigned. He owns a string of Greene Turtle restaurants along with business partners Derek Fink (a county councilman) and James King (a former delegate) and has strong financial backing.

Schuh will win if Democrats fail to turn out their base and win independent voters. While his business credentials are solid, Del. Schuh’s voting record may serve to alienate some would-be Neuman voters. He would have to hope that his war chest will provide him enough outreach to win them back.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Steve Schuh (R) raised $1,164,240, cash on hand $225,322
  2. George Johnson (D) raised $181,952, cash on hand $72,349

Click “read more” for an analysis of every council seat.

Election Projection 2014: District 33

Senate District 33

Incumbent: Ed Reilly (R)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ed Reilly (R) unopposed
2006: Janet Greenip (R) 56.1%, Scott Hymes (D) 43.9%

33

The old District 33 was split into a two-member 33A in Millersville and Crofton, and a one-member 33B from Crownsville, Davidsonville, and south county.

Former configuration of District 33A and 33B (2002-2010)

Former configuration of District 33A and 33B (2002-2010)

The new District 33 is a three-member district that includes Severna Park, Millersville, Crofton, Crownsville, Davidsonville, and northern Arnold. The 33rd took on much of the Broadneck Peninsula from the 30th. The resulting district contains most of the Republican-voting precincts in central Anne Arundel County.

Senator Reilly took over from the retiring Senator Greenip after being elected twice to the County Council. Nobody signed up to oppose him this year, so he has already won re-election.

 

House District 33 – 3 members

Incumbents: Cathy Vitale (R), Tony McConkey (R), Bob Costa (R) – Costa was drawn into District 30B and will retire
Filed Challengers: Henry Green (D), Sid Saab (R), Tom Angelis (D), Kostas Alexakis (D)
Projection: Lean D+1

Past Results:
2010: Cathy Vitale (R) 41.7%, Tony McConkey (R) 32.3%, Madonna Brennan (D) 25.7%
2006: James King (R) 29.0%, Tony McConkey (R) 26.0%, Patricia Weathersbee (D) 23.8%. Paul G. Rudolph (D) 21.0%

With the Republican power base in Severna Park drawn into one district now rather than two (30 and 33 used to have portions of Severna Park), the list of Republican candidates for this race has become understandably long. The biggest name drawn into the district was Delegate Ron George, who has decided to run for Governor rather than seek re-election in the 33rd.

The new district will elect three delegates, and the crowded GOP primary was the scene for most of the action. Del. Vitale is very popular and easily won the first Republican nomination. Sid Saab of Crownsville ran a very good campaign and took the second Republican nomination. Del. McConkey was actually reprimanded by the General Assembly for ethical misconduct in 2012, after he tried to pass legislation that would make it easier for him to pay off his real estate penalties to the state. Still, he managed to cling to the third spot on the ballot.

These three candidates are the strongest supporters of a Crofton high school, and earned the endorsement of the Capital Gazette

These three candidates are the strongest supporters of a Crofton high school, and earned the endorsement of the Capital Gazette

Democrat Henry Green, a former Baptist minister, has presented himself as a moderate, community-driven alternative and has earned the endorsement of the Gazette. Along with Vitale and Saab, he has been vocal in supporting the efforts to build a high school in Crofton.

The other Democrats in the race are 2004 Congressional candidate Kostas Alexakis and former Republican candidate for County Executive Tom Angelis.

While Severna Park and Millersville tend to vote for Republicans, they are also well-informed voters who have some of the highest turnout numbers in the county. Honest, ethical representatives are more important than political parties, and we predict the voters will choose Vitale, Saab, and Green.

Election Projection 2014: District 32

Senate District 32

Incumbent: Ed DeGrange (D)
Filed Challengers: Larry Barber (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.4%, Larry Barber (R) 39.5%
2006: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.8%, Jon Vandenheuvel (R) 39.1%

32

While ancestrally Democratic areas such as Linthicum have been becoming increasingly red over the years, other areas such as Severn and Hanover have been turning more blue. Senator DeGrange has maintained the support of conservative Democrats even as they vote Republican at the federal level, and should have no trouble winning re-election.

Senator Ed DeGrange (D)

Senator Ed DeGrange (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ed DeGrange (D) raised $117,125, cash on hand $234,442
  2. Larry Barber (R) raised $5,843, cash on hand $1,766

House District 32 – 3 members

Incumbents: Mary Ann Love (D), Ted Sophocleus (D), Pam Beidle (D) – Love will retire
Filed Challengers: Joseph Fioravante (R), Mark Angell (R), Tim Walters (R), Mark Chang (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Pamela Beidle (D) 19.0%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 17.7%, Mary Ann Love (D) 17.6%, Stephanie A. Hodges (R) 16.3%, Wayne Smith (R) 15.7%, David P. Starr (R) 13.6%
2006: Pamela Beidle (D) 18.6%, Mary Ann Love (D) 18.3%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 18.3%, Mark Chang (R) 17.1%, Terry R. Gilleland (R) 14.1%, Wayne Smith (R) 13.6%

Incumbents Pam Beidle and Ted Sophocleus advanced through the primaries, despite some knocks on Del. Sophocleus for his age and his conservative voting record. The most liberal member of this delegation, Mary Ann Love, is retiring and many progressive voters hoped she would be replaced by another more liberal delegate. Instead, the third Democratic spot on the ballot will be filled by Mark Chang. Chang is a Glen Burnie community leader and former political aide to Sen. Ed DeGrange and is the first Korean-American to run for elected office in Anne Arundel County. Chang espouses several conservative social views, which nevertheless seem to be in line with this northern Anne Arundel County district. Chang actually ran as a Republican in 2006 but has since switched parties.

The three Republicans will be Mark Angell, Joseph Fioravante, and Tim Walters. Of them, only Walters has the visibility and the money to be competitive so far. For Walters to win, he would have to convince voters that he’s a better option than one or both of the two weaker Democrats, Sophocleus or Chang. Unfortunately for him, these are also the two most conservative Democrats in the race, so it’s hard to picture him drawing a clear line between his own platform and theirs.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ted Sophocleus (D-inc) raised $65,095, cash on hand $19,523
  2. Pam Beidle (D-inc) raised $57,925, cash on hand $34,922
  3. Mark Chang (D) raised $41,019, cash on hand -$5,624
  4. Tim Walters (R) raised $11,757, cash on hand $4,962
  5. Joseph Fioravante (R) raised $7,935, cash on hand $2,784
  6. Mark Angell (R) raised $1,788, cash on hand $1,086

Election Projection 2014: District 31

Senate District 31

Incumbent: Bryan Simonaire (R)
Filed Challengers: Scott Harman (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Bryan Simonaire (R) 62.1%, Ned Carey (D) 37.8%
2006: Bryan Simonaire (R) 50.8%, Walter J. Shandrowsky (D) 49.1%

Sen. Bryan Simonaire

Sen. Bryan Simonaire

It’s hard to believe that just eight years ago, this district had a Democratic senator. In 2006, Republican Bryan Simonaire managed to win this district by less than 700 votes. We won’t see another close race like that here for a long time. The 31st is based in Pasadena, the center of Republican activity in Anne Arundel County. Through a coalition of the wealthy who live along the Magothy River and on Gibson Island, dissatisfied former blue-collar workers in Pasadena and Riviera Beach, and residents of the eastern Pasadena/Lake Shore countryside, the Republicans have a powerful base here. Senator Simonaire is set to cruise in 2014, although Democrat Scott Harman has stepped up to challenge him.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Bryan Simonaire (R) raised $28,129, cash on hand $21,625
  2. Anthony Scott Harman (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

House District 31A – 1 member

Resident Incumbent: none
Filed Candidates: Ned Carey (D), Terry Lynn DeGraw (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

31a

Brooklyn Park and northern Glen Burnie were shaved off the old 31st District and made into a new single-member 31A. The communities here are strongly Democratic, especially closer to Baltimore City, and popular community leader Ned Carey is the favorite to win the new seat.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ned Carey (D) raised $28,750, cash on hand $16,005
  2. Terry Lynn DeGraw (R) raised $6,766, cash on hand $2,208

House District 31B – 2 members

Incumbents: Nic Kipke (R), Steve Schuh (R), Don Dwyer (R) – Schuh is running for County Executive
Filed Challengers: Jeremiah Chiappelli (D), Doug Morris (D), Meagan Simonaire (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold

31b

The race for 31B has been one of the more dramatic this year. After losing a seat to redistricting, Republicans were faced with three incumbents with only two seats between them. Dropping out of the game of political musical chairs early was Delegate Steve Schuh, who decided to run for County Executive.

Then there is the matter of Maryland’s most infamous legislator: Don Dwyer. First elected in 2002, he was mainly known as a staunch, STAUNCH opponent of gay marriage. On his LinkedIn profile he proudly hails himself as “the most conservative member of the legislature.”

He is more recently known, unfortunately, for driving his boat, while intoxicated, into another boat and injuring 9 people. Months later, he was arrested again for a DUI, this time while driving a car. He is currently serving 30 weekends in prison, and was insanely not required to resign his seat in the legislature. Perhaps more insanely, he has vowed to run again in 2014, although Simonaire and Kipke have formed a slate without him.

Del. Don Dwyer (R)

Del. Don Dwyer (R)

Dwyer’s drama has led to the most competitive Republican primary in the state, eventually won by Senator Bryan Simonaire’s 24-year-old daughter, Meghan. Dwyer ended up placing sixth out of eight candidates with only 7% of the votes.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Nic Kipke (R-inc) raised $53,408, cash on hand $16,462
  2. Meagan Simonaire (R) raised $28,773, cash on hand $3,625
  3. Jeremiah Chiappelli (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  4. Doug Morris (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

 

Election Projection 2014: District 30

Senate District 30

Incumbent: John Astle (D)
Filed Challengers: Don Quinn (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: John Astle (D) 51.1%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 48.8%
2006: John Astle (D) 52.9%, Herb McMillan (R) 47.0%

Old District 30

Old District 30

New District 30

New District 30

District 30 has seen a major change. It gives up Arnold, Cape St. Clair, and its portion of Severna Park to the 33rd, and picks up south county (most of the former 33B). Senator Barbara Mikulski won the precincts of the new 30 with over 53% of the vote in 2010. While these elections will continue to be close, Democrats retain the edge.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. John Astle (D-inc) raised $136,391, cash on hand $198,263
  2. Don Quinn (R) raised $3,270, cash on hand $891

 

House District 30A – 2 members

Incumbents: Michael Busch (D), Ron George (R), Herb McMillan (R) – George was redistricted into the 33rd and made an unsuccessful run for Governor
Filed Challengers: Chuck Ferrar (D), Genevieve Lindner (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

Past Results:
2010: Ron George (R) 19.2%, Michael Busch (D) 18.0%, Herb McMillan (R) 16.9%, Virginia Clagett (D) 15.9%, Seth Howard (R) 15.1%, Judd Legum (D) 14.8%
2006: Michael Busch (D) 17.1%, Virginia Clagett (D) 17.0%, Ron George (R) 16.6%, Barbara Samorajczyk (D) 16.5%, Andy Smarick (R) 15.6%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 15.5%

30a

District 30 has been split into a two-member 30A and a single-member 30B. The new 30A contains the city of Annapolis, south Arnold, and northern Edgewater. With the heavily-Republican areas in Arnold and Severna Park now drawn out of the district, these seats are now much safer for Democrats. Speaker of the House Mike Busch should win here, and former county councilman Chuck Ferrar won the other Democratic nomination. Republican incumbent Herb McMillan will run alongside the unknown Genevieve Lindner.

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 filing deadline:

  1. Michael Busch (D-inc) raised $350,750, cash on hand $345,289
  2. Herb McMillan (R-inc) raised $106,245, cash on hand $76,971
  3. Chuck Ferrar (D) raised $84,545, cash on hand $2,069
  4. Genevieve Lindner (R) raised $1,520, cash on hand $970

 

House District 30B – 1 member

Incumbent: Bob Costa (R) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Seth Howard (R), Mitchelle Stephenson (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold

30b

The new 30B is reminiscent of the old 33B: it consists of southern Anne Arundel County including Edgewater, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Harwood, and Lothian. Notably absent from the new district is Davidsonville, which remains in the new District 33. Although the conservative stronghold of Davidsonville is not in 30B, the southeastern towns around Deale have been trending Republican in recent years, and combined with the reliably conservative communities along the South River, should tilt this race in favor of a Republican. Democratic candidate Mitchelle Stephenson has run a spirited campaign, and is outraising her GOP opponent, Seth Howard.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Mitchelle Stephenson (D) raised $32,614, cash on hand $17,788
  2. Seth Howard (R) raised $19,495, cash on hand $15,226

Far-Right Conservative Candidate Inches Closer to Primary Win in AAC-5

Michael Peroutka

Michael Peroutka

With the provisional ballots counted, Michael Anthony Peroutka has increased his lead over Maureen Carr-York to 38 votes. The two are competing for the Republican nomination to succeed Councilman Dick Ladd in Anne Arundel’s fifth council district. Ladd was defeated in his bid for re-election, coming in third place and 434 votes behind Peroutka.

District 5 includes Arnold, Millersville, and Severna Park.

District 5 includes Arnold, Cape St. Claire, Millersville, and Severna Park.

Peroutka ran for President in 2004 on the Constitution Party ticket, where his campaign pledges included a “return to a Republic of Sovereign States based on Biblical principles.” Peroutka also sits on the board of the League of the South, a neo-Confederate movement which advocates for the secession of southern states, a “society dominated by European Americans,” and has been designated as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center. Peroutka also heads the ultra-conservative Institute on the Constitution (IOTC), which insists that our Founding Fathers intended America to be a Christian nation ruled by Biblical principles, and advocates a return to those principles.

Peroutka also appears to have won a seat on the county’s Republican Central Committee (RCC), the governing body of the local Republican Party.

AAC Local Election Results (from Maryland State Board of Elections)

Election Projection 2014: District 21

Senate District 21

Incumbent: Jim Rosapepe (D)
Filed Challengers: none
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Jim Rosapepe (D) unopposed
2006: Jim Rosapepe (D) 67.5%, John Giannetti (R) 32.4%

Sen. James C. Rosapepe (D)

Sen. James C. Rosapepe (D)

This district includes College Park, Beltsville, Laurel, and most of Odenton. Without opposition from either Democrats or Republicans, Sen. Rosapepe will cruise to an easy re-election in 2014.

21

House District 21 – 3 members

Incumbents: Ben Barnes (D), Barbara Frush (D), Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D)
Filed Challengers: Katherine M. Butcher (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ben Barnes (D) 25.2%, Barbara Frush (D) 24.8%, Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D) 24.5%, Scott Dibiasio (R) 8.1%, Jason W. Papanikolas (R) 8.0%, Kat Nelson (R) 7.7%, Bryan Walker (L) 1.5%
2006: Ben Barnes (D) 29.6%, Barbara Frush (D) 29.3%, Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D) 28.9%, Neil B. Sood (R) 11.8%

Even with the addition of more of Anne Arundel County, the 21st District is still heavily Democratic and should send all three incumbents back to Annapolis.

"Team 21:" Dels. Barbara Frush, Ben Barnes, Joseline Peña-Melnyk

“Team 21:” Dels. Barbara Frush, Ben Barnes, Joseline Peña-Melnyk

Precinct Results: State Ballot Questions 4 and 6 – Anne Arundel County

In November 2012, citizens in Maryland voted on several laws passed by the General Assembly. Among them were Question 4, which provides tuition at the in-state level for immigrants who pay Maryland taxes, and Question 6, which allows equal marriage rights for same-sex couples. Here, we have mapped the results by precinct in Anne Arundel County.

Question 4. Click to view full-size version.

Question 4. Click to view full-size version.

Question 6. Click to view full-size version.

Question 6. Click to view full-size version.

The biggest thing that stands out is the stark difference between the Severna Park/Arnold area vs. the Pasadana/Lake Shore area. While both capes vote reliably Republican, Lake Shore is far more socially conservative than Arnold. Nearly every precinct between the Severn and Magothy rivers voted in favor of marriage equality, while there were only three between the Magothy and the Patapsco.

Another noticeable fact from the maps was that Crofton is very similar in this way to Severna Park and Arnold. Every single Crofton precinct voted in favor of question 6, even though the town is a toss-up politically (49% Obama in 2012). In addition, no Crofton precinct voted for question 4 by less than 48%.

Voters in Maryland’s 33rd legislative district and the 5th councilmanic district should take note. For a pretty socially liberal electorate, their elected officials are currently very conservative.

The same cannot be said for Crofton’s more reliably Democratic neighbor, Odenton. Over 57% of Odenton went for Obama in 2012, but it appears to be more socially conservative than Crofton. The Maple Ridge precinct (04-003) voted against question 6, and they were joined by King’s Ransom (04-012) and East Piney Orchard (04-023) in their opposition to question 4.

Other than that, everything was as expected. West county and Annapolis vote liberal, south and northeast county vote conservative. The south continues its leftward trend, due to “spillover” from PG county and trends towards Democrats in Shady Side. However it will be quite some time before the south turns “blue.”

Data file (CSV) from Maryland Board of Elections