Category Archives: 2018 Elections
Initial Election Ratings for Governor, Assembly
With the candidate filing deadline passed, we now know who’s running and who’s not. We can now release our initial general election ratings. These ratings will be changed as the year goes on, as primary elections, campaign finance reports, and candidate slip-ups and gaffes are all taken into account.
We use seven election ratings here at CFP. Here’s what they mean:
- Safe R
- Likely R
- Lean R
- Toss-up
- Lean D
- Likely D
- Safe D
Statewide Offices
- Governor – Toss-up. Many Republicans would like to believe that Governor Larry Hogan has the advantage going into the November election. While his personal approval ratings remain high, his poll numbers when matched up against actual candidates aren’t overwhelming. Hogan also knows full well that he’s facing enormous headwinds: he’s already in a very blue state, and the nation’s most visible Republican – President Trump – is extremely unpopular here. Once the Democrats choose their candidate in June, we will be able to see more clearly who has the advantage.
- Comptroller – Safe D. Who’s the savviest politician in Maryland? Is is Larry Hogan? No- it’s Comptroller Peter Franchot, hands-down. He’s cultivated a very close relationship with Governor Hogan, and has affiliated himself with a group of reformist Democrats against the Mike Miller machine, which makes him popular across party lines. There is a Republican challenging him, Anjali Phukan, but she’ll most likely only garner votes from strict Republican party-line voters.
- Attorney General – Safe D. The most enthusiastic voters right now are those who want their state and local officials to fight the Trump administration and insulate Marylanders from the president’s disastrous policies. No one in Maryland has been a more visible champion for constitutionality and reason than Attorney General Brian Frosh. While the state’s remaining Trump supporters despise Frosh, and will likely support Washington lobbyist Craig Wolf, there simply aren’t enough of them to pose a threat to Frosh.
State Senate
- District 1 (Garrett, Allegany, Washington) – Safe R. This far-western district would have been safe for Republican George Edwards even if there was a Democrat in the race, but there isn’t.
- District 2 (Washington) – Safe R. Another Western Maryland district that’s safe for Republicans. Senator Andrew Serafini will win re-election unopposed.
- District 3 (Frederick) – Lean D. Republicans are targeting this district, but only out of their desperation to break the Democrats’ supermajority. The Frederick city area is blue and trending bluer, and the suburban area between the city and Montgomery County is trending in the same direction, as D.C. commuters make these less-dense suburbs their homes. There’s no guarantee, however, that Senator Ron Young will be the Democrats’ candidate after July, as he is facing two primary challengers.
- District 4 (Frederick) – Likely R. This is the kind of suburban district that will have an anti-Trump boost, which could take the form of a 2-5 point swing in favor of Democrats. It will take a lot to go right to unseat far-right Senator Michael Hough, and in all honesty it’s unlikely to happen. Still, there are two Democrats running here just in case.
- District 5 (Carroll) – Safe R. Carroll County is one of the most conservative counties in Maryland, and Senator Justin Ready will win re-election even in a blue “tsunami” year.
- District 6 (Dundalk, Essex) – Likely R. This eastern Baltimore County district has been trending Republican for over a decade, and both Hogan and Trump are still popular here. While the Democrats have a good candidate in Bud Staigerwald, he will have a very difficult time beating freshman Senator J.R. Salling.
- District 7 (Baltimore County, Harford) – Safe R. This is a suburban-rural district straddling the Baltimore-Harford county line. It’s one of the most conservative districts in the state, and is represented by the Senate Minority Leader, J.B. Jennings. He is well-funded as a result of his leadership position, and will win re-election easily.
- District 8 (Parkville, Perry Hall, Overlea) – Lean D. Senator Kathy Klausmeier is one of the Republicans’ top targets in 2018. The Republican candidate is the ambitious Christian Miele, who is finishing his first term in the House of Delegates and will be supported by the Hogan machine for this seat. A recent poll shows Klausmeier leading Miele 55-39.
- District 9 (Ellicott City, Sykesville, western Howard County) – Lean R. This is one of the Democrats’ few chances to gain a seat in the Senate. Howard County is trending Democratic, but the portion of the district in Carroll County will probably keep this seat red. Still, Democrats have a good candidate here in Katie Fry Hester. First-term Senator Gail Bates defends this seat for the Republicans, but first she’ll face a primary challenge from Reid Novotny.
- District 10 (Randallstown, Reisterstown, Woodlawn) – Safe D. Senator Delores Kelley is seeking her seventh term in this western Baltimore County district, but is facing some tough competition from lawyer Rob Johnson in the Democratic primary. The winner will face Republican Stephanie Boston, who challenged Kelley in the 2014 Democratic primary, losing 66-19.
- District 11 (Owings Mills, Pikesville) – Safe D. There are no Republicans challenging Senator Bobby Zirkin in this district in western Baltimore County, but he will face a primary challenge from longtime progressive activist Sheldon Laskin.
- District 12 (Arbutus, Columbia) – Likely D. This district contains about half of liberal Columbia as well as a small section of conservative southwestern Baltimore County. Senator Ed Kasemeyer made a late decision to retire rather than run for re-election, and the district’s delegation selected Clarence Lam to replace him. He won’t have a clear shot to the Senate, though, as Howard County councilwoman Mary Kay Sigaty has also filed to succeed Kasemeyer. The winner of the Democratic primary will face Joe Hooe, a perennial Republican candidate who’s run here in every election since 2002.
- District 13 (Columbia) – Safe D. Freshman Senator Guy Guzzone faces no opposition from either party in this central Howard County district.
- District 14 (Northern Montgomery County) – Safe D. Craig Zucker should have no trouble winning his first full term as State Senator. He will face only token Republican opposition in November.
- District 15 (Western Montgomery County) – Safe D. Brian Feldman is hoping to win his second full term in the State Senate. He will face businessman H.J. Xin in the Democratic primary, and Republican David Wilson in the general. Feldman should win both races, and may face more of a challenge from Xin than Wilson.
- District 16 (Bethesda) – Safe D. Senator Susan C. Lee will face Republican Marcus Alonza in November and should win by a huge margin.
- District 17 (Gaithersburg, Rockville) – Safe D. Senator Cheryl Kagan won’t face a Democratic primary challenge, making this the first year since 2006 that this district has had an uncontested Democratic primary. She will have no problem winning her second term.
- District 18 (Chevy Chase) – Safe D. Senator Richard Madaleno is running for Governor, and Delegate Jeff Waldstreicher filed to replace him. He’s facing a tough three-way primary. Dr. Dana Beyer, who’s been running in District 18 in every election since 2006, is running again, as is first-time candidate Michelle Carhart. All three are credible candidates and this will be one of the most interesting primary races to watch in the state. There are no Republican candidates, so the winner of this incredible primary will be the next state senator.
- District 19 (Silver Spring) – Safe D. In a similar situation to District 18, Senator Roger Manno is running for Congress, and Delegate Ben Kramer filed to replace him. Unlike District 18, Kramer faces no Democratic opposition, but does face both a Republican and a Green Party candidate in November. The best reason to watch this election is the possibility that the Green candidate may get more votes than the Republican.
- District 20 (Silver Spring, Takoma Park) – Safe D. Will Smith was appointed to the State Senate in 2016, representing the most progressive district in Maryland, and he has not disappointed as a progressive leader. Senator Smith faces no primary opposition, and only token challenges from a Republican and independent candidate.
- District 21 (Beltsville, College Park, Laurel, Odenton) – Safe D. Senator Jim Rosapepe faces only a token challenge from a Republican in November. This should be another easy win for him in.
- District 22 (Greenbelt, Hyattsville, Lanham) – Safe D. Paul Pinsky is unopposed.
- District 23 (Bowie) – Safe D. Senator Paul Peters will face business owner Tim Adams in the Democratic primary. There are no Republicans running here.
- District 24 (Capitol Heights, Glenarden) – Safe D. Joanne Benson is running for her third term in this dark blue Prince George’s County district. She will face Navy veteran Everett Browning and former delegate Tiffany Alston, who was removed from office in 2012 due to misdemeanor theft and misconduct in office. Voters should pick between Benson and Browning, and reject Alston.
- District 25 (District Heights, Largo) – Safe D. Senator Ulysses Currie is retiring, and two delegates have stepped up to succeed him. Melony Griffith actually left the House to challenge Currie in 2014, and she’s now running for the open seat. Angela Angel, who was elected to the House seat vacated by Griffith four years ago, is also running for the Senate seat. Veterinarian Jonathan Rosero rounds out the Democratic primary race. There are no Republicans running, so the winner of the Democratic primary is effectively the next state senator.
- District 26 (Fort Washington, National Harbor) – Safe D. Senator Anthony Muse is running for Prince George’s County Executive. County Councilman Obie Patterson is running for his seat as a Democrat, as is Jamila Woods. There is a Republican on the ballot here, but that’s unlikely to change the fact that the winner of the Democratic primary will become the next state senator.
- District 27 (Southern Prince George’s County, Calvert County) – Likely D. This is the seat of longtime Senate President Mike Miller, and it is made up of a portion of dark blue PG County and dark red Calvert County. Miller is the leader of the Democratic “establishment” in Maryland, which is increasingly at odds with reformists like Comptroller Peter Franchot and the new generation of elected Democrats. Miller is facing a spirited primary challenge from reformist Tommi Makila. On the Republican side are Roussan Etienne and 2014 candidate Jesse Allen Peed. The chunk of this district in PG County will carry the Democrat to victory unless something goes terribly wrong.
- District 28 (Charles County) – Safe D. Mac Middleton is running for re-election in this southern Maryland district, and while he is challenged by one Democrat and one Republican, he shouldn’t have any trouble winning his seventh term.
- District 29 (St. Mary’s County) – Safe R. Republicans captured this conservative southern Maryland district four years ago, and incumbent senator Steve Waugh should easily win again. He faces Jack Bailey in the GOP primary and Democrat Thomas Brewer in the general election.
- District 30 (Annapolis, southern Anne Arundel County) – Toss-up. Longtime Democratic senator John Astle is retiring, leaving an open race in one of the most competitive districts in the state. Former delegate Ron George is the only Republican in the race. On the Democratic side, Sarah Elfreth and Chrissy Holt vie for the nomination. This race is tricky to predict because of the disparate nature of the communities making up the district. The state capitol of Annapolis makes up about two-thirds of the district, and its affluent neighborhoods have been known to vote Republican downballot. However, these neighborhoods seem to be the most fired up against Trump, and in special elections around the county it’s the affluent suburbs that are swinging hard against the Republican Party. The other one-third of the district in located in southern Anne Arundel County, which is more rural and has more dedicated Republican voters. There is also a Libertarian candidate who might take enough votes to play spoiler to any of the above candidates.
- District 31 (Brooklyn Park, Glen Burnie, Pasadena) – Safe R. Senator Bryan Simonaire faces only token opposition in November.
- District 32 (Glen Burnie, Hanover, Linthicum) – Lean D. Democratic Senator Ed DeGrange is retiring, and it was obvious that Delegate Pam Beidle would take the opportunity to try to make a move to the Senate. Republicans got their top recruit on the last day of filing: County Councilman John Grasso, who could shake things up in this light blue district. While Republicans were waiting on Grasso, Maureen Bryant also filed for this seat.
- District 33 (Arnold, Crofton, Severna Park) – Likely R. Republican Senator Ed Reilly is running for his third full term, and he’s reasonably popular in this affluent district in the Annapolis suburbs. This is the first time Reilly will face a Democratic challenger for this seat, and there’s a strong progressive movement on the Broadneck Peninsula. Despite this, Reilly starts this race with a strong campaign warchest and the power of incumbency in a district that favors Republicans. He will probably win, but Democrats are finally making a strong effort in this district. At the very least, they will build a grassroots network of supporters for future races and find out where their “ceiling” currently stands.
- District 34 (Aberdeen, Bel Air, Havre de Grace) – Lean R. This is another chance for Democrats to make gains in the State Senate. Republican incumbent Bob Cassilly is running for his second term. Democrats got their top recruit in former delegate Mary-Dulany James, who lost badly to Cassilly in a dramatically different political climate four years ago. Another former delegate, Barbara Kreamer, is also running in the Democratic primary. The portion of this district east of I-95 is considered good turf for Democrats, while Bel Air is strongly Republican. If Democrats are to win here, they will have to perform better than they have been in Bel Air.
- District 35 (Cecil County, Harford County) – Safe R. With the untimely death of Senator Wayne Norman, Republicans nominated Jason Gallion to succeed him. He faces no opposition from either party.
- District 36 (Upper Eastern Shore) – Safe R. Stephen Hershey is running for his second full term, and he should have no trouble from Democrat Heather Sinclair in this rural Chesapeake Country district.
- District 37 (Middle Eastern Shore) – Likely R. Republican Senator Addie Eckardt is running for her second term. On the Democratic side, longtime public health official Holly Wright is running. District 37 is interesting because while it is a chiefly rural district on the Eastern Shore, it contains several small cities that lean Democratic, including Salisbury. Wright may be able to capitalize on anger towards Trump and frustration from some residents that Governor Hogan hasn’t been living up to his promises to pay more attention to Shore issues.
Elections 2018: District 6
Senate District 6
Incumbent: J.R. Salling (R)
Challengers: Buddy Staigerwald (D)
Past Results:
2014: J.R. Salling (R) 47.7%, John Olszewski, Jr. (D) 44.9%, Scott M. Collier (I) 7.3%
2010: Norman Stone (D) 57.8%, Bruce Kahl (R) 42.0%
Dundalk and Essex are Baltimore blue collar central, and in keeping with most other majority-white, blue collar areas in America, District 6 favored Trump over Clinton 61-35, a huge shift from Romney’s 50-48 win in 2012. Larry Hogan also won big here 75-23.
This is a volatile district politically and it’s not hard to figure out why. Nowhere in Maryland was hit harder by the recession than eastern Baltimore County, and voters here (at least the ones who are still voting; turnout has dropped precipitously) have decided it’s time for a change. At the federal level, they’re giving Trump a try, and at the state level, this means ditching the Democratic Party and shaking up Annapolis.
Nothing illustrates this paradigm shift than the 2014 election for state Senator, where underfunded political nobody J.R. Salling defeated two-term Delegate John Olszewski, Jr., who was the son of longtime county councilman and political boss John Olszewski, Sr., for the open seat. While some observers were shocked at this “upset,” it’s important to note that the district had been turning red for decades, and hadn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since at least 1996 – probably even earlier, but I can’t find presidential election results by legislative district going back that far.
Buddy Staigerwald, an electrician and firefighter, has filed as a Democrat to challenge Salling. Democrats are hoping for a comeback here with a blue wave at their backs, but this is turf where both Trump and Hogan are extremely popular, so it’s going to be a tough sell.
Campaign finances as of the January 17 filing deadline:
| Name | Receipts | Self Fund | Expenditures | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.R. Salling (R) | $27,502 | $0 | $22,547 | $29,647 |
| Buddy Staigerwald (D) | $9,518 | $0 | $3,035 | $8,033 |
House of Delegates
Incumbents: Robin Grammer (R), Robert Long (R), Ric Metzgar (R)
Challengers: Nicholas D’Adamo (D), Megan Ann Mioduszewski (D), Justin Holliday (D)
Past Results:
2014: Robert Long (R) 21.2%, Ric Metzgar (R) 19.1%, Robin Grammer (R) 18.4%, Nicholas D’Adamo (D) 14.6%, Mike Weir (D) 14.5%, Jake Mohorivic (D) 12.0%
2010: John Olszewski, Jr. (D) 20.2%, Mike Weir (D) 18.2%, Sonny Minnick (D) 17.9%, Robert Long (R) 16.2%, Ric Metzgar (R) 15.5%, Carlton William Clendaniel (R) 11.9%
Republicans swept the district four years ago, picking up two open seats and unseating Delegate Mike Weir. All three Republican incumbents are running for re-election.
Nicholas D’Adamo, the Democrats’ top vote-getter in 2014, is running again. He was a Baltimore City councilman from 1987-2011.
Campaign finances as of the January 17 filing deadline:
| Name | Receipts | Self Fund | Expenditures | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Long (R) | $30,076 | $0 | $9,399 | $64,306 |
| Ric Metzgar (R) | $30,005 | $0 | $22,837 | $13,670 |
| Robin Grammer (R) | $21,551 | $0 | $8,025 | $30,448 |
| Megan Ann Mioduszewski (D) | $14,656 | $0 | $4,728 | $9,729 |
| Nicholas D’Adamo (D) | $0 | $0 | $303 | $39,090 |
| Justin Holliday (D) | ALCE |
Elections 2018: District 30
Senate District 30
Incumbent: John Astle (D)
Filed Challengers: Ron George (R), Sarah Elfreth (D), Chrissy Holt (D)
Past Results:
2014: John Astle (D) 51.3%, Don Quinn (R) 48.6%
2010: John Astle (D) 51.1%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 48.8%
District 30 was redrawn considerably in 2014, giving up Arnold and Cape St. Claire in exchange for Edgewater and south county. While Democratic Senator John Astle slightly increased his vote share from 2010 to 2014, the surprising performance by his underfunded Republican opponent, Don Quinn, has put this seat at the top of the GOP’s target list in 2018.
Astle ran for Mayor of Annapolis in 2017, coming up short in the Democratic primary. It’s been expected that he will announce his retirement, but that has yet to happen. Sarah Elfreth has launched her campaign to hold the seat for the Democrats, and has had Astle at her events. Healthcare advocate Chrissy Holt has also launched her campaign, and is running on a progressive platform.
The Republican nomination has come down to two veteran delegates: Ron George and Herb McMillan. George, a former two-term delegate from Arnold, was redrawn into the 33rd district in 2014, and decided to run for Governor instead of running for re-election in his new district. He came in fourth place in the GOP primary for governor, and now he is attempting a political comeback. McMillan has tried to win this seat already – in 2006 – but John Astle beat him 53-47%. He probably wasn’t too pleased when Ron George moved back into District 30 and announced his candidacy. McMillan has a long history of service in Annapolis, and has deep ties in the community, but will he run knowing that Ron George is also running? From a Republican strategic standpoint, that would be a bad idea, as it would mean they would have to field two new candidates for the House in 30A instead of one. But this Senate seat is finally within reach of Republicans, both because of Astle’s assumed retirement and a generous redrawing of the district lines in 2014. Will McMillan give up what is likely his last chance to win it? He seems to be giving it a lot of thought, and has even commissioned an opinion poll that shows him down just 25-29% to George, with 43% undecided.
Ron George (l) and Herb McMillan (r)
Annapolis tends to vote Democratic and is trending bluer, while southern Anne Arundel County votes Republican and is getting redder. I am not sure why these two areas have been grafted together as District 30, given the vast differences between them. As a whole, District 30 voted 69-29% for Larry Hogan and 47.4-46.7% for Donald Trump. As I’ve mentioned, the voting patterns of Annapolis vs. south county are very different, and I have included the vote percentages for the subdistricts below.
House District 30A – 2 members
Incumbents: Michael Busch (D), Herb McMillan (R)
Challengers: Chelsea Gill (R), Mark Plaster (R), Aron Axe (D), Alice Cain (D), Mary Reese (D), Brooks Schandelmeier (D)
Past Results:
2014: Herb McMillan (R) 27.9%, Michael Busch (D) 27.6%, Chuck Ferrar (D) 23.0%, Genevieve Lindner (R) 21.4%
District 30A’s delegation is currently split; they elected Republican Herb McMillan and Democrat Michael Busch to represent them, in that order. Republicans would love to sweep this district, and they point to Larry Hogan’s 58-40% win here as proof that they can. Just two years later, Hillary Clinton won this district 54-39%. This is currently shaping up to be a very good year for Democrats, and progressives are extremely motivated in Annapolis to sweep both seats in this district.
Delegate McMillan, as I mentioned above, is apparently mulling a promotion to State Senate. Republicans are also very keen on sweeping this district, and they landed a decent recruit in Mark Plaster, who ran (unsuccessfully) for Congress in 2016. Plaster is a former Navy Reservist and doctor, who claims that the scientific data suggesting climate change is caused by human action is fraudulent. Republican Chelsea Gill has filed for the race as well.
Mike Busch is Speaker of the House, which means he is personally loathed by conservatives across the state, but also that he has a high degree of respect in his own district and an enormous campaign account. Unlike McMillan, “Iron Mike” is officially in.
Other than Busch, there are four Democrats in the race.
Most of these Democrats may see their campaign goal as to serve alongside Speaker Busch, but if enough voters come out with an out-with-the-old mentality, they may end up throwing Busch out with the bathwater.
Elections 2018: District 1
Senate District 1
Incumbent: George C. Edwards (R)
Challengers: none
Past Results:
2014: George C. Edwards (R) unopposed
2010: George C. Edwards (R) unopposed
Senator George C. Edwards (R)
George Edwards has the safest seat in the Senate for Republicans, and barring a primary challenge, he will win re-election in 2018. District 1, located in the Maryland panhandle, voted for Trump over Clinton 77%-19%, and will be a tough hill for any Democrat to climb. Edwards is used to running unopposed, and it’s looking like he may be unopposed again this year.
House District 1A
Incumbent: Wendell Beitzel (R)
Challengers: Michael Dreisbach (D)
Past Results:
2014: Wendell Beitzel (R) unopposed
2010: Wendell Beitzel (R) 72.6%, James R. “Smokey” Stanton (D) 27.3%
District 1A contains all of Garrett County in far western Maryland, as well as a portion of Allegany County southwest of Cumberland. This is deep red territory (82-15 Trump), and a Democrat would have a tough time winning here even in the bluest of blue waves. Even so, Michael Dreisbach, the owner of the Frostburg-area Savage River Lodge, has filed to run.
House District 1B
Incumbent: Jason Buckel (R)
Challengers: Penny Walker (D)
Past Results:
2014: Jason Buckel (R) 58.9%, Kevin Kelly (D) 40.9%
2010: Kevin Kelly (D) 51.3%, Mary Beth Pirolozzi (R) 48.6%
Few observers were surprised that Republicans picked up this seat in 2014, as this Allegany County district had been voting Republican at the national level for years. In 2016, voters here favored Trump over Clinton 72-23. This district could become competitive again if it contained all of Cumberland, but that won’t happen until at least 2022, so Buckel is favored to win again this year.
House District 1C
Incumbent: Mike McKay (R)
Challengers: Nicole Alt-Myers (R), Jordan Lysczek (R)
Past Results:
2014: Mike McKay (R) 57.0%, Nick Scarpelli (D) 42.9%
2010: LeRoy Myers (R) 69.7%, Ronald Lohr (D) 30.1%
Republicans won this panhandle seat in 2002 by unseating then-Speaker Cas Taylor. Since then, Democrats have fought to win this seat back every election cycle, and 2014 was the closest they came. Nick Scarpelli largely self-funded his Cumberland-based campaign and still fell 14 points short. This district stretches from the old manufacturing city of Cumberland to the western suburbs of Hagerstown, an area which has been trending Republican for years and strongly favored Donald Trump by a margin of 76-20. While Larry Hogan won every precinct in 1C, Scarpelli actually had considerable success in the Cumberland area:
Click for full size image
The race to watch here in 2018 is the Republican primary. In August 2017, the Register of Wills for Allegany County, Rebecca Drew, resigned, and Delegate Mike McKay made it known that he wanted to be considered for appointment to the vacancy. Under the assumption that the 1C seat would be open for 2018, Nicole Alt-Myers and Jordan Lysczek filed to run. When McKay was passed over for the Register of Wills job, he filed for re-election, which is no longer a certainty. More information on this saga is available at A Miner Detail here, here, and here.
Alt-Myers ended up slightly out-raising McKay in 2017, even if you don’t count the $16K loan from her husband, former delegate LeRoy Myers.
No Democrats have filed here yet. The strongest candidate would be Cumberland Mayor Brian Grim, but there’s no indication that he will run.
Campaign finances as of the January 17 filing deadline:
| Name | Receipts | Self Fund | Expenditures | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicole Alt-Myers (R) | $13,400 | $16,535 | $27,727 | $2,208 |
| Mike McKay (R) | $12,199 | $0 | $11,743 | $7,884 |
| Jordan Lysczek (R) | $197 | $0 | $134 | $63 |
Elections 2018: District 2
Senate District 2
Incumbent: Andrew Serafini (R)
Challengers: none
Past Results:
2014: Christopher Shank (R) unopposed
2010: Christopher Shank (R) 70.9%, Donald Munson (R) 28.2%
Senator Andrew Serafini (R)
District 2 is located in Washington County in western Maryland, including Hagerstown and the surrounding areas. Politically, this area has been conservative for decades, and Hagerstown shifted significantly towards the Republican party in 2016. Trump beat Clinton here 64%-31%, which is steep but not insurmountable for Democrats in a blue wave year.
Andrew Serafini was appointed to this seat when Senator Christopher Shank took a job in the Hogan administration. Serafini had previously served in the House of Delegates from district 2A since 2008, which he had also been appointed to. He has a reputation as a pragmatic conservative, and although he tends to be a weak fundraiser, he’s handily won two contested elections.
House District 2A
Incumbents: Neil Parrott (R), Bill Wivell (R)
Challengers: none
Past Results:
2014: Neil Parrott (R) 36.0%, Andrew Serafini (R) 35.9%, Elizabeth Paul (D) 16.9%, Charles Bailey 11.1%
2A is a two-member district encompassing eastern Washington County, with the exception of the City of Hagerstown, which is District 2B. This is a very conservative, 68-27 Trump district where Larry Hogan is extremely popular and Republicans will be favored to win in November.
House District 2B
Incumbent: Paul Corderman (R)
Challengers: Peter Perini (D)
Past Results:
2014: Brett Wilson (R) 54.3%, John Donoghue (D) 45.6%
2010: John Donoghue (D) 52.7%, Cort Meinelschmidt (R) 46.9%
Hagerstown has long been a Democratic oasis in dark-red western Maryland. Amid abysmal Democratic turnout, voters in 2014 voiced their opposition to the status quo and elected popular local attorney Brett Wilson over longtime delegate John Donoghue. Two years later, again with terrible turnout, District 2B voters favored Trump 49-45. This should be considered one of the Democrats’ top pickup opportunities in 2018, but they must find some way to bring voters to the polls.
Delegate Wilson was appointed to a judgeship in 2016, and local Republicans selected Paul Corderman, a Hagerstown city councilman, to succeed him. Corderman will start out with good name recognition since the district borders are practically coterminous with the city borders.
Peter Perini has filed for this seat as a Democrat. Former Hagerstown mayor Davis Gysberts would also make a fantastic delegate.
Campaign finances as of the January 17 filing deadline:
| Name | Receipts | Self Fund | Expenditures | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Corderman (R) | $10,192 | $0 | $994 | $9,198 |
| Peter Perini (D) | $0 | $10,400 | $28 | $15,467 |
2018 Maryland State Senate Election Primer
The 2018 campaign season is officially underway. Democrats want to keep their momentum going and win back the governor’s mansion, while Republicans want to build on Larry Hogan’s popularity and make gains in both houses of the state legislature.
Republicans are aiming to pick up five seats in the State Senate, which would break the Democrats’ veto-proof majority. But is that a realistic goal in deep-blue Maryland?
Democrats seem content so far to play defense, but is there anywhere in the state where they could make a pickup with such an unpopular President in the White House?
To answer these questions, we looked at all 47 seats in the Senate and placed them in one of four categories:
- Hot Seat – These will be the most contested races in the state. They are either represented by a Republican at the state level but voted for Hillary Clinton, or represented by a Democrat at the state level but voted for Donald Trump. There are 4 Democrat-held hot seats in the Senate.
- On the Bubble – These races will (or at least should) receive a lot of attention from both parties. These are districts where one party has been making substantial recent gains and can look to take over. There is 1 Democrat-held bubble seat in the Senate.
- Reach – These are districts that the right candidate with a massive push can swing. Without the right candidate, or without tons of money, or without an enthusiastic campaign, these seats will remain in their current hands. There are 3 Republican- and 2 Democrat-held reach seats in the Senate.
- Out of Reach – These districts will not flip, no way, no how. All districts that aren’t hot seats, on the bubble, or reach seats, are out of reach.
This article focuses on the Senate. Click here for our House of Delegates article.
Hot Seats
Democrat-held
- 8 (Parkville, Perry Hall) – Kathy Klausmeier has never earned less than 58% of the vote in this Baltimore County district, and that was back in 2006. However, this area in eastern Baltimore County has become significantly less hospitable to Democrats in recent years. Larry Hogan won by an overwhelming 67-31, and Hillary Clinton just barely won 47.64-46.97, a win margin of only 240 votes. Klausmeier’s personal popularity and lack of credible opponents have kept her in office even as the political tides shift against her party. This time, Republicans have their best candidate in over a decade: Christian Miele, who is finishing his first term in the House of Delegates. Miele is very popular in this district, and he’ll have the backing of the Hogan political machine.
- 30 (Annapolis, Southern Anne Arundel County) – This is an open seat, as Senator John Astle (D) is retiring following his unsuccessful bid for mayor of Annapolis. The Republican frontrunner is Ron George, who represented Annapolis in the House of Delegates from 2007-2015. While Annapolis leans Democrat, the rest of this district is in rural southern Anne Arundel, which is solidly red. The two areas almost don’t seem to fit together politically: Annapolis voted 54-39 for Clinton while south county voted 61-34 for Trump. Hogan actually won in Annapolis 58-40, while dominating in south county 73-25. Republicans feel good about their chances here, so good they might have a contested primary. Delegate Herb McMillan of Annapolis still hasn’t decided whether to enter the primary race against George. On the Democratic side is veteran legislative advocate Sarah Elfreth.
- 38 (Lower Eastern Shore) – Senator Jim Mathias has defied all political expectations, and possibly some laws of physics, by winning in a heavily Republican district in two Republican wave years (2010 and 2014). They were both very close elections: in 2010 he won 51-49, and in 2014 he beat delegate Michael McDermott 52-48. His win margin increased from 640 votes to 1,353. These narrow wins were especially impressive because the district voted for the Republican presidential candidate both times by wide margins: Romney and Trump both won 62-34. So if Mathias has survived two tough GOP-wave elections in a deep-red district, why is he on the hot seat? Well, the state Republican Party wasn’t really investing in his opponents the last two rounds. This time, they have a reason to invest: if they pick up five seats in the Senate, Democrats won’t be able to override Governor Hogan’s vetoes. They also have a strong candidate: Delegate Mary Beth Carozza, who is enthusiastically supported by Hogan and the state party. Hogan won this neglected district 69-29, and will probably do even better in 2018, even in a blue wave. Mathias will be facing his toughest challenge yet, but if he keeps working his magic, he could still win a third term. Nevertheless, this is our Senate Seat Most Likely to Flip.
- 42 (Lutherville, Towson) – Another open seat here as Senator Jim Brochin (D) runs for Baltimore County Executive. This seat was gerrymandered for Republicans in 2014, transforming from a compact central Baltimore County district to a senseless ribbon stretching from Towson to the Baltimore County line. This highly educated, 70-28 Hogan district only favored Trump 48-46. Republican delegate Chris West is running for the open seat, and is currently the favorite to win. Democrats aren’t going to give up despite the gerrymander, and have two candidates (so far) to choose from. Robbie Leonard is an attorney and former county Democratic Central Committee chair. Gretchen Maneval is a professional neighborhood planner and AmeriCorps veteran. This is a district where we could see a huge anti-Trump backlash that helps Democrats, but the winner of the Democratic primary will still have to overcome Hogan’s popularity and West’s experience to hold this seat.
On the Bubble
Democrat-Held
- 3 (Frederick, Southern Frederick County) – This 57-41 Hogan/51-43 Clinton district is actually becoming bluer as Frederick is turning into a suburb of Washington. Senator Ron Young (D) picked up this seat from the Republicans in 2010, but Hogan and the Republicans are targeting him on their quest to ruin the Democratic supermajority. Frederick County councilman Billy Shreve has announced that he will run; Craig Giangrande has also filed for the Republicans. There are also rumors that Young won’t have the Democratic primary to himself. Former Frederick mayor Jennifer Dougherty has been making the rounds at fundraisers, and there are rumblings that she may challenge Young for the nomination.
Reach
Republican-Held
- 9 (Ellicott City, Sykesville, Western Howard County) – This district in the Columbia suburbs favored Hogan by an enormous 69-29 spread, a 40-point margin that vanished in 2016 as Trump only won 51-43. Democrats are particularly fired up in Ellicott City following Trump’s election. As there are no other vulnerable Republican senate seats, Democrats must try to play offense in a district like this one. Senator Gail Bates (R) won her first term 66-34 and wouldn’t be in trouble if it weren’t for events in Washington. Democrat Katie Fry Hester has filed to challenge Bates in 2018.
- 33 (Arnold, Crofton, Severna Park) – This three-member district in the Annapolis suburbs has been so Republican lately that Democrats have had trouble finding candidates. District 33 went 71-27 for Hogan and 52-41 for Trump. Let those numbers sink in. A 44-point Hogan advantage in 2014 turns into an 11-point Trump win just two years later. This is an affluent, well-educated suburban district that doesn’t like Trump, but will that translate into enough votes to unseat Senator Ed Reilly (R)? There is a very strong progressive movement on the Broadneck Peninsula that could make this seat competitive. Business owner and Navy veteran Eve Hurwitz has filed as a Democrat and, with a serious campaign push, has a chance at a stunning upset win.
- 34 (Aberdeen, Bel Air, Havre de Grace) – First-term Senator Bob Cassilly (R) won 57-43 as Hogan was carrying this district 69-29. Historically, the towns to the east of I-95 have leaned Democratic while Bel Air is strongly Republican, adding up to a pretty strong Republican district as a whole. But, like many other suburban districts across the country, Trump is proving far less popular than local Republicans. Despite the strong Republican lean, Trump only carried this district 53-41, and with the political winds coming out of Washington, Democrats could have a chance at a pickup with an excellent candidate. They currently have no candidates, however, and this is a pretty far reach.
Democrat-Held
- 12 (Arbutus, Halethorpe, Columbia) – Arbutus and Halethorpe are very Republican; Columbia is not. This three-member district voted for Hogan 55-43 and Clinton 55-38. Yes, Clinton’s margin was wider than Hogan’s, but that’s why it’s called a reach. Still, a lot can happen in the next year, and we’re leaving this here for now. Until or unless anything interesting happens, Senator Ed Kasemeyer (D) looks set to win his eighth term.
- 32 (Northwest Anne Arundel County) – We almost put this as a Reach district for Republicans, as all the momentum is on the other side right now. Senator Ed DeGrange (D) is retiring, but Democrats have their best candidate running, Pam Beidle, currently serving her third term in the House of Delegates. This race might be competitive with an excellent Republican candidate, as voters here favored Hogan 57-41. However, Clinton won 54-41, and as much as Republicans want this seat, it’d be a serious reach.
2018 Maryland House of Delegates Election Primer
The 2018 campaign season is officially underway. Democrats want to keep their momentum going and win back the governor’s mansion, while Republicans want to build on Larry Hogan’s popularity and make gains in both houses of the state legislature.
Republicans are aiming to pick up five seats in the State Senate, which would break the Democrats’ veto-proof majority. But is that a realistic goal in deep-blue Maryland?
Democrats seem content so far to play defense, but is there anywhere in the state where they could make a pickup with such an unpopular President in the White House?
To answer these questions, we looked at all 47 seats in the Senate and all 141 seats in the House of Delegates, and placed them in one of four categories:
- Hot Seat – These will be the most contested races in the state. They are either represented by a Republican at the state level but voted for Hillary Clinton, or represented by a Democrat at the state level but voted for Donald Trump. There are 3 Republican- and 4 Democrat-held hot seats in the House, and 4 Democrat-held hot seats in the Senate.
- On the Bubble – These races will (or at least should) receive a lot of attention from both parties. These are districts where one party has been making substantial recent gains and can look to take over. There are 5 Democrat-held bubble seats in the House, and 2 Democrat-held bubble seats in the Senate.
- Reach – These are districts that the right candidate with a massive push can swing. Without the right candidate, or without tons of money, or without an enthusiastic campaign, these seats will remain in their current hands. There are 6 Republican- and 4 Democrat-held reach seats in the House, and 3 Republican- and 1 Democrat-held reach seats in the Senate.
- Out of Reach – These districts will not flip, no way, no how. All districts that aren’t hot seats, on the bubble, or reach seats, are out of reach.
This article focuses on the House. The Senate rundown is coming soon.
Hot Seats
Republican-held
- 9B (Ellicott City) – Bob Flanagan won here 55-45 in 2014, while Hogan carried this highly educated new district 57-41. Two years later, 9B voted for Clinton 57-37. That number is more like what we expected from Howard County, which is turning bluer every year. This is the hottest seat in Maryland, and we give it our inaugural The District Most Likely To Flip award. Democrats have two top-tier candidates running: former county councilperson Courtney Watson and business owner Dan Medinger.
- 30A (Annapolis) – This two-member district elected Democrat Mike Busch and Republican Herb McMillan in 2014. McMillan actually came in first place overall, taking 27.9% of the vote to Busch’s 27.6%, with Democrat Chuck Ferrar trailing at 23%. This district voted for Hogan 58-40, then swung back to the left and picked Clinton 54-39. We already know Democrats in Annapolis have the energy to win an election, what we don’t know is who their candidates will be. Busch, who serves as the powerful Speaker of the House, has filed. Democrats need someone else to step up and launch their campaign soon. Republicans have two candidates filed to try and take over Busch’s seat, and neither of them are McMillan, who is said to be weighing a run for State Senate. Soon-to-be-former Mayor Mike Pantelides would be a top-tier candidate for them if he decides to run here.
Democrat-held
- 8 (Parkville, Perry Hall) – This three-member district is represented by Republicans Christian Miele and Joe Cluster, and Democrat Eric Bromwell. District 8 is situated on the edge of eastern Baltimore County, which has been trending Republican for years now at the federal and state level, voting for Hogan by a dominating 67-31. Still, they picked Clinton 48-47. Bromwell has been the only Democrat in this delegation since 2010. Miele is running for State Senate, so there will be one open seat, although former delegate Joseph Boteler has filed. If Dems can get fired up in these sleepy suburbs, they could return the vulnerable Bromwell and maybe even pick up the open seat. A more likely outcome is that Republicans will sweep the district.
- 31A (Brooklyn Park, Glen Burnie) – Ned Carey won by a closer than expected 53-47 spread in 2014, the first year of this district’s existence. Meanwhile, Hogan was winning here 64-34. This is also the only Trump district in Maryland represented by a Democrat, even though Trump only won 49-46. Needless to say, Carey is a top target for Republicans this year, and Army veteran Brooks Bennett has filed for this seat.
One of Each
- 34A (Aberdeen, Edgewood, Havre de Grace) – Harford County is heavily Republican, but this stretch to the east on I-95 is more hospitable to Democrats. This is a two-member district represented by Republican Glen Glass and Democrat Mary Ann Lisanti. Voters here still lean Republican, voting for Hogan 61-37 and Clinton 48-46. Low turnout has plagued 34A, but if Democrats can generate the enthusiasm they had in Virginia, they could have a sweep here. Likewise, Republicans could capitalize on Hogan’s sky-high popularity in Harford County and sweep it the other way. Right now, both possibilities look about equal.
On the Bubble
Democrat-held
- 27B (South Prince George’s County, Dunkirk, Huntingtown) – Democrat Michael A. Jackson represents this 55-44 Hogan/49-47 Clinton seat. Originally supposed to be a safely blue seat, the sudden rightward swing of Calvert County took everyone off guard. Jackson only won 52-48, and Clinton’s 2-point win was very underwhelming. In our opinion, this district was drawn foolishly from the start – why group a chunk of southern PG County with northern Calvert? But if Republicans can come up with a top-tier candidate, Jackson may end up being a one-term delegate. The Republicans currently have two filed candidates.
- 32 (Northwest Anne Arundel County) – This is on the outer edge of the bubble, but this three-member district voted for Hogan 57-41. Two years later, Clinton won by an equally convincing 54-41. Democrats Pam Beidle, Mark Chang, and Ted Sophocleus currently serve District 32, but Beidle is running for State Senate, and Sophocleus is in his late seventies. Chang, for his part, is an energetic campaigner, and has a moderate voting record in the House, making him a tough candidate to beat. Sandy Bartlett has been accepted into the “team” to fill Beidle’s spot, but progressive Army veteran Derek Kent is running for a seat here as well, and if there’s one trend we see in elections since Trump’s election, it’s that progressive candidates are winning everywhere. Republicans are taking this race seriously: 2014 candidate Tim Walters is running, as are Patty Ewing and Mark Bailey. The proposed Maglev train, which would run all the way through the district, is creating new political factions, and it will be interesting to see how big of a part it plays in the campaigns.
Reach
Democrat-held
- 12 (Arbutus, Halethorpe, Columbia) – Arbutus and Halethorpe are very Republican; Columbia is not. This three-member district voted for Hogan 55-43 and Clinton 55-38. Yes, Clinton’s margin was wider than Hogan’s, but that’s why it’s called a reach. Still, a lot can happen in the next year, and we’re leaving this here for now.
- 42A (Towson) – Steve Lafferty is popular in this Baltimore County district that voted for Hogan 55-43 and Clinton 62-31. It’s a highly-educated suburban district, and is the home of Towson University. For Republicans to win this, absolutely everything has to go right (that’s why it’s a reach) and nothing can go wrong. One Republican has filed as of this writing.
Republican-held
- 2B (Hagerstown) – Formerly a Democratic stronghold, the party’s fortunes here have declined along with the fortunes of the city itself. Republican Brett Wilson beat longtime Democratic delegate John Donoghue 54-46 as Hogan carried the district 61-37. Trump won 49-45, but we’ve seen districts redder than this turn blue in the past year. Nobody has filed yet, although there is a little drama: Wilson is planning to step down so that he can be appointed to a judicial seat, leaving the seat open to an appointee who will serve until the election. Wilson would have been tough to beat, but if, say, Kristin Aleshire or Daniel Gysberts runs against an appointee who has been serving less than a year, would Republicans still hold the seat?
- 3B (Southern Frederick County) – This is another district where everything would have to go right for Democrats, but if they do, they could pick up a seat in this fast-growing suburban area south of Frederick. Delegate Bill Folden won 56-44, while Hogan was rolling 63-35. Those are impressive numbers, but the area has been trending blue for the past decade or so, and Trump only won 50-44. This DC suburban district is exactly the type of district Democrats should be targeting this year, and if they land a fantastic candidate, they could make a big gain here.
- 29B (Lexington Park) – The Maryland political world was shocked when Republican newcomer Deb Rey defeated Delegate John Bohanan 50.3-49.6 — a margin of 76 votes. But in hindsight, it fit the general trend towards Republicans in St. Mary’s County. This suburban district backed Hogan 64-33 and Trump 50-43. The Hogan margin is significant, but we’ve seen 7-point margins for Trump evaporate just one year later in Virginia. Army veteran Brian Crosby has filed to run as a Democrat here. If Crosby’s campaign takes off, this could turn into an interesting race.
- 33 (Arnold, Crofton, Severna Park) – This three-member district in the Annapolis suburbs has been so Republican lately that Democrats have had trouble finding candidates to put their names on the ballot, let alone run an actual campaign. District 33 went 71-27 for Hogan and 52-41 for Trump. Let those numbers sink in. A 44-point Hogan advantage in 2014 turns into an 11-point Trump win just two years later. This is an affluent, well-educated suburban district that doesn’t like Trump. It’s still a reach, but to win here, Democrats must do several things. First, they have to have a full slate. Running just two candidates here won’t be good enough. Second, they should have at least one candidate who is reasonably well-known throughout the district and has the time and ability to engage the neighborhoods: knock on doors, be a presence at every community event, and get name recognition through copious press coverage. Finally, they should try to have a geographic balance between their candidates. Two of the three Republican incumbents are from Crofton and there’s a Republican challenger looking to join the delegation, also from Crofton. This is a winnable race if the candidates can work together like a machine.
