Monthly Archives: September 2014

Election Projection 2014: District 32

Senate District 32

Incumbent: Ed DeGrange (D)
Filed Challengers: Larry Barber (R)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.4%, Larry Barber (R) 39.5%
2006: Ed DeGrange (D) 60.8%, Jon Vandenheuvel (R) 39.1%

32

While ancestrally Democratic areas such as Linthicum have been becoming increasingly red over the years, other areas such as Severn and Hanover have been turning more blue. Senator DeGrange has maintained the support of conservative Democrats even as they vote Republican at the federal level, and should have no trouble winning re-election.

Senator Ed DeGrange (D)

Senator Ed DeGrange (D)

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ed DeGrange (D) raised $117,125, cash on hand $234,442
  2. Larry Barber (R) raised $5,843, cash on hand $1,766

House District 32 – 3 members

Incumbents: Mary Ann Love (D), Ted Sophocleus (D), Pam Beidle (D) – Love will retire
Filed Challengers: Joseph Fioravante (R), Mark Angell (R), Tim Walters (R), Mark Chang (D)
Projection: Safe D Hold

Past Results:
2010: Pamela Beidle (D) 19.0%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 17.7%, Mary Ann Love (D) 17.6%, Stephanie A. Hodges (R) 16.3%, Wayne Smith (R) 15.7%, David P. Starr (R) 13.6%
2006: Pamela Beidle (D) 18.6%, Mary Ann Love (D) 18.3%, Theodore Sophocleus (D) 18.3%, Mark Chang (R) 17.1%, Terry R. Gilleland (R) 14.1%, Wayne Smith (R) 13.6%

Incumbents Pam Beidle and Ted Sophocleus advanced through the primaries, despite some knocks on Del. Sophocleus for his age and his conservative voting record. The most liberal member of this delegation, Mary Ann Love, is retiring and many progressive voters hoped she would be replaced by another more liberal delegate. Instead, the third Democratic spot on the ballot will be filled by Mark Chang. Chang is a Glen Burnie community leader and former political aide to Sen. Ed DeGrange and is the first Korean-American to run for elected office in Anne Arundel County. Chang espouses several conservative social views, which nevertheless seem to be in line with this northern Anne Arundel County district. Chang actually ran as a Republican in 2006 but has since switched parties.

The three Republicans will be Mark Angell, Joseph Fioravante, and Tim Walters. Of them, only Walters has the visibility and the money to be competitive so far. For Walters to win, he would have to convince voters that he’s a better option than one or both of the two weaker Democrats, Sophocleus or Chang. Unfortunately for him, these are also the two most conservative Democrats in the race, so it’s hard to picture him drawing a clear line between his own platform and theirs.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ted Sophocleus (D-inc) raised $65,095, cash on hand $19,523
  2. Pam Beidle (D-inc) raised $57,925, cash on hand $34,922
  3. Mark Chang (D) raised $41,019, cash on hand -$5,624
  4. Tim Walters (R) raised $11,757, cash on hand $4,962
  5. Joseph Fioravante (R) raised $7,935, cash on hand $2,784
  6. Mark Angell (R) raised $1,788, cash on hand $1,086

Election Projection 2014: District 31

Senate District 31

Incumbent: Bryan Simonaire (R)
Filed Challengers: Scott Harman (D)
Projection: Safe R Hold

Past Results:
2010: Bryan Simonaire (R) 62.1%, Ned Carey (D) 37.8%
2006: Bryan Simonaire (R) 50.8%, Walter J. Shandrowsky (D) 49.1%

Sen. Bryan Simonaire

Sen. Bryan Simonaire

It’s hard to believe that just eight years ago, this district had a Democratic senator. In 2006, Republican Bryan Simonaire managed to win this district by less than 700 votes. We won’t see another close race like that here for a long time. The 31st is based in Pasadena, the center of Republican activity in Anne Arundel County. Through a coalition of the wealthy who live along the Magothy River and on Gibson Island, dissatisfied former blue-collar workers in Pasadena and Riviera Beach, and residents of the eastern Pasadena/Lake Shore countryside, the Republicans have a powerful base here. Senator Simonaire is set to cruise in 2014, although Democrat Scott Harman has stepped up to challenge him.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Bryan Simonaire (R) raised $28,129, cash on hand $21,625
  2. Anthony Scott Harman (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

House District 31A – 1 member

Resident Incumbent: none
Filed Candidates: Ned Carey (D), Terry Lynn DeGraw (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

31a

Brooklyn Park and northern Glen Burnie were shaved off the old 31st District and made into a new single-member 31A. The communities here are strongly Democratic, especially closer to Baltimore City, and popular community leader Ned Carey is the favorite to win the new seat.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Ned Carey (D) raised $28,750, cash on hand $16,005
  2. Terry Lynn DeGraw (R) raised $6,766, cash on hand $2,208

House District 31B – 2 members

Incumbents: Nic Kipke (R), Steve Schuh (R), Don Dwyer (R) – Schuh is running for County Executive
Filed Challengers: Jeremiah Chiappelli (D), Doug Morris (D), Meagan Simonaire (R)
Projection: Safe R Hold

31b

The race for 31B has been one of the more dramatic this year. After losing a seat to redistricting, Republicans were faced with three incumbents with only two seats between them. Dropping out of the game of political musical chairs early was Delegate Steve Schuh, who decided to run for County Executive.

Then there is the matter of Maryland’s most infamous legislator: Don Dwyer. First elected in 2002, he was mainly known as a staunch, STAUNCH opponent of gay marriage. On his LinkedIn profile he proudly hails himself as “the most conservative member of the legislature.”

He is more recently known, unfortunately, for driving his boat, while intoxicated, into another boat and injuring 9 people. Months later, he was arrested again for a DUI, this time while driving a car. He is currently serving 30 weekends in prison, and was insanely not required to resign his seat in the legislature. Perhaps more insanely, he has vowed to run again in 2014, although Simonaire and Kipke have formed a slate without him.

Del. Don Dwyer (R)

Del. Don Dwyer (R)

Dwyer’s drama has led to the most competitive Republican primary in the state, eventually won by Senator Bryan Simonaire’s 24-year-old daughter, Meghan. Dwyer ended up placing sixth out of eight candidates with only 7% of the votes.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Nic Kipke (R-inc) raised $53,408, cash on hand $16,462
  2. Meagan Simonaire (R) raised $28,773, cash on hand $3,625
  3. Jeremiah Chiappelli (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)
  4. Doug Morris (D) filed ALCE (raised/spent less than $1,000)

 

Election Projection 2014: District 30

Senate District 30

Incumbent: John Astle (D)
Filed Challengers: Don Quinn (R)
Projection: Lean D Hold

Past Results:
2010: John Astle (D) 51.1%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 48.8%
2006: John Astle (D) 52.9%, Herb McMillan (R) 47.0%

Old District 30

Old District 30

New District 30

New District 30

District 30 has seen a major change. It gives up Arnold, Cape St. Clair, and its portion of Severna Park to the 33rd, and picks up south county (most of the former 33B). Senator Barbara Mikulski won the precincts of the new 30 with over 53% of the vote in 2010. While these elections will continue to be close, Democrats retain the edge.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. John Astle (D-inc) raised $136,391, cash on hand $198,263
  2. Don Quinn (R) raised $3,270, cash on hand $891

 

House District 30A – 2 members

Incumbents: Michael Busch (D), Ron George (R), Herb McMillan (R) – George was redistricted into the 33rd and made an unsuccessful run for Governor
Filed Challengers: Chuck Ferrar (D), Genevieve Lindner (R)
Projection: Likely D+1

Past Results:
2010: Ron George (R) 19.2%, Michael Busch (D) 18.0%, Herb McMillan (R) 16.9%, Virginia Clagett (D) 15.9%, Seth Howard (R) 15.1%, Judd Legum (D) 14.8%
2006: Michael Busch (D) 17.1%, Virginia Clagett (D) 17.0%, Ron George (R) 16.6%, Barbara Samorajczyk (D) 16.5%, Andy Smarick (R) 15.6%, Ron Elfenbein (R) 15.5%

30a

District 30 has been split into a two-member 30A and a single-member 30B. The new 30A contains the city of Annapolis, south Arnold, and northern Edgewater. With the heavily-Republican areas in Arnold and Severna Park now drawn out of the district, these seats are now much safer for Democrats. Speaker of the House Mike Busch should win here, and former county councilman Chuck Ferrar won the other Democratic nomination. Republican incumbent Herb McMillan will run alongside the unknown Genevieve Lindner.

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Speaker of the House Michael E. Busch (D)

Campaign Finances as of the June 13 filing deadline:

  1. Michael Busch (D-inc) raised $350,750, cash on hand $345,289
  2. Herb McMillan (R-inc) raised $106,245, cash on hand $76,971
  3. Chuck Ferrar (D) raised $84,545, cash on hand $2,069
  4. Genevieve Lindner (R) raised $1,520, cash on hand $970

 

House District 30B – 1 member

Incumbent: Bob Costa (R) – will retire
Filed Challengers: Seth Howard (R), Mitchelle Stephenson (D)
Projection: Lean R Hold

30b

The new 30B is reminiscent of the old 33B: it consists of southern Anne Arundel County including Edgewater, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Harwood, and Lothian. Notably absent from the new district is Davidsonville, which remains in the new District 33. Although the conservative stronghold of Davidsonville is not in 30B, the southeastern towns around Deale have been trending Republican in recent years, and combined with the reliably conservative communities along the South River, should tilt this race in favor of a Republican. Democratic candidate Mitchelle Stephenson has run a spirited campaign, and is outraising her GOP opponent, Seth Howard.

Campaign Finances as of the August 26 filing deadline:

  1. Mitchelle Stephenson (D) raised $32,614, cash on hand $17,788
  2. Seth Howard (R) raised $19,495, cash on hand $15,226