Monthly Archives: October 2012

Vote FOR K on Election Day

Sure, it sounds cheesy: “Vote for K on Election Day!”

But Question K is no joke. Neither was the turnout for the 2011 mayoral election: only 23% of registered voters showed up at the polls.

Question K is a solution: rather than have city elections in an odd year, move them to a Presidential election year. That way, more people who would have come out to vote anyway will vote for Mayor and City Council.

Here is the text of Question K straight from the Board of Elections website:

We urge you to help make democratic process easier for hundreds of thousands of people by voting FOR this simple ballot question. It’s the first step towards our city’s future.

Election Watch: 10/8

 

October means only one month remains until Election Day. It also means the start of debate season: candidates’ last chance to appeal directly to the public. Another key about this month is that generally, a large lead in an October poll won’t be lost. With each passing week, the polls begin to paint a more final picture of the election.

In case you are wondering, the numbers below (ex. 8.5) are the averages of all polls collected for each race. They represent how many points in each state the candidate is predicted to win by, on average.

SENATE:
Democratic Party – 51
Republican Party – 47
Independents – 2 (ME, VT)
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Democratic Party – 196
Republican Party – 239

Changes since the last prediction:

PRESIDENT

  1. Colorado: Toss-up (1.8) to Lean D (2.3)
  2. Hawaii: Guarantee D (32.0) – Previously no data
  3. Iowa: Toss-up (1.0) to Lean D (4.5)
  4. Louisiana: Likely R (-6.0) – Previously no data
  5. Missouri: Likely R (-8.0) to Lean R (-4.6)
  6. Montana: Strong R (-11.0) to Likely R (-8.8)
  7. Nebraska’s 2nd District: Lean R (-2.5) to Toss-up (-1.7)
  8. Nevada: Lean D (4.8) to Likely D (7.4)
  9. Rhode Island: Solid D (24.0) – Previously no data

SENATE

  1. Arizona: Likely R (-5.4) to Lean R (-2.8)
  2. California: Strong D (18.8) to Solid D (20.2)
  3. Florida: Likely D (9.4) to Strong D (11.4)
  4. Maine: Strong I (13.5) to Likely I (9.8)
  5. Minnesota: Strong D (18.4) to Solid D (21.4)
  6. Missouri: Toss-up (1.4) to Lean D (3.6)
  7. New Mexico: Likely D (8.6) to Strong D (11.4)
  8. Pennsylvania: Strong D (13.3) to Likely D (9.2)
  9. Rhode Island: Solid D (26.0) – Previously no data
  10. Texas: Strong R (-15.0) to Solid R (-20.7)
  11. Wisconsin: Lean D (4.7) to Likely D (5.0)
  12. Virginia: Lean D (3.1) to Likely D (5.3)

 

Click to enlarge.

The past cycle of polls show that President Obama’s post-convention surge has continued, with 18 states moving more towards Obama since September 24. Hopes that Nebraska’s 2nd district might send Obama an extra electoral vote as they did in 2008 were revived, as the district moved to a toss-up. We also saw the first polls come in from Hawaii, Louisiana, and Rhode Island.

Presidential strength indicator: (BLACK indicates no data)

Click to enlarge.

There are two big storylines in the Senate. One is from Virginia, where Democrat Tim Kaine is widening his lead in a race that was considered a toss-up until just last month. The second is from the unlikely state of Arizona, a longtime Republican stronghold, but where centrist Democrat Richard Carmona is closing the gap between himself and his Republican opponent for the open seat, Jeff Flake.

It also appears that the leads for Democrat Bob Casey (PA) and Independent Angus King (ME) are dwindling, but still hold.

Following is a map we created to show how the Senate is projected to change. DARK RED = R gain, LIGHT RED = R hold, DARK BLUE = D gain, LIGHT BLUE = D hold, DARK GREEN = I gain, LIGHT GREEN = I hold, PURPLE = Toss-up.

Click to enlarge.

Summary of results:

“Current” – The current makeup of the U.S. Senate. “2012” indicates the makeup of the Senate after the 2012 elections, but only using poll results that are outside our margin of error of 2.0. “Toss-up” indicates the makeup of the Senate after the 2012 elections including all races, including the closest races. For example, a race where the Republican candidate leads by 0.1 would not be counted in the 2012 line, but would be counted in the Toss-up line.

Here is a strength indicator for the Senate:

Click to enlarge.

Here is our current list of House pickups for both parties:

The net gain for Democrats is in the House is D+7; however, that number does not take into account the effects of redistricting on party seat changes:

 

 

Data

 

So now what?

The day after Election Day, where will you be? If progressive candidates lose, will you be comforted knowing you did all you could? Or will you wonder what could have happened if you had done just a little more? Don’t let that be your story. There’s still plenty of time to volunteer or contribute.

Register to vote, and make sure your friends are registered!

 

 

Donate to progressive candidates for Congress. Even small donations like $5 add up.

Volunteer for President Obama’s campaign in your area!

Mitt Romney vs. Mitt Romney

Once again, we are reminded that Mitt Romney will say anything to get elected. He has contradicted his own words so many times, he could have a debate with himself.

 

Thanks to DailyKos for this.